With training camp fast approaching, more and more best ball contests roll out every week across the multitude of platforms looking to convince drafters they are where the money should be spent. It can be easy to enter draft after draft without taking a second to consider the shifting landscape as blurbs and news articles send players skyrocketing several rounds, and if you’re not considering whether a player is now being drafted too high, or possibly even still too low, then it’s easy to end up making bad choices. Over the past month, these are the players who have risen and fallen the most in Underdog drafts.
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- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
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Best Ball Risers and Fallers
Risers
Parris Campbell (WR – NYG) ADP: 176.4 +36
The Giants are screaming out for a wide receiver to stand up and take control of the receiving room, and on the back of OTA’s, Parris Campbell was the one player that beat reporters talked up as having had a great set of practices. This news on its own was enough to see Campbell jump by three rounds, which is always much easier when a player is going from being barely drafted to being a consistent late-round dart throw. Campbell flashed in 2022 with three top 12 weekly PPR finishes, but throughout his career has failed to live up to expectations. Campbell might be the best option out of the Giants’ receivers, or he could be the fourth-best. It doesn’t take much to dramatically move ADP in this dead spot of the NFL calendar.
Tim Patrick (WR – DEN) ADP: 174.6 +32.5
Another wide receiver on the rise after a few positive words from beat reporters is Tim Patrick, who at this time last year was being talked about as potentially being the Broncos’ best wide receiver. Sadly for Patrick, he tore his ACL and missed the entire season, which might have actually been less painful than being on the field as Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett sunk the Broncos’ hopes in an eye-popping fashion. Now, Patrick is, by all reports, recovered well. For receivers, an ACL injury is less of an issue than running backs, so perhaps with the book still out on Courtland Sutton, as well as Jerry Jeudy, lacking consistency throughout his career, if one of them was to be traded then Patrick could be very fantasy viable on a team we expect to improve upon last years fortunes.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) ADP: 166.9 +22.0
The Eagles seem likely to have a running back by committee approach to 2023, with Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift currently going well ahead of Kenneth Gainwell and the undrafted Boston Scott. Gainwell, however, seems to have a secure role within this offense. The Eagles liked to lean into him at times in 2022, using him more in pass-catching roles than Miles Sanders, targeted at a rate of 0.15 per routes run, compared with 0.10 to Sanders. Neither was particularly impressive in this area, though, due to Jalen Hurts’ lack of desire to check down. Gainwell has seen his ADP rise as reports stated Penny might start the year on injured reserve, which would open up a bigger role for Gainwell, but ultimately, it might not be worth that much.
DeVante Parker (WR – NE) ADP: 194.0 +21.0
Nothing foreshadows a jump in ADP quite like signing a new contract, and with DeVante Parker signing a new three-year $33m deal, his ADP has risen almost two entire rounds with drafters feeling confident he’s the WR2 in this New England offense. Parker led the Patriots with 11.5 yards per target in 2022, and if Bill O’Brien can get the offense playing even semi-competently after last year, then Parker can be a valuable best ball asset in 2023.
Brock Purdy (QB – SF) ADP: 171.0 +17.8
It has been incredibly obvious for a while now that the Trey Lance era closed before it ever really began, through no fault of his own when Brock Purdy stepped in and took control of the Niners’ offense. Purdy’s ADP being close to pick 200 made no sense given the weapons the Niners have on hand and his propensity to push the ball downfield more often than Jimmy ‘The Checkdown’ Garoppolo. When, not if, Purdy is confirmed as the Week 1 starter, expect his ADP to jump at least another two rounds.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) ADP: 98.3 +13.9
Whispers are starting to find their way into the national media that Eric Bienemy is enamored with Antonio Gibson, and that feels like the kind of jolt that Gibson needs after being consigned to punt duties in camp last year. Brian Robinson did little to wrestle the job away from Gibson, averaging 3.7 yards per carry to Gibson’s 3.7, but there’s no doubting the upside case for Gibson, given we’ve seen him finish as a top-twelve RB in total PPR points in two of the last three seasons.
Fallers
Jalin Hyatt (WR – NYG) ADP: 195.8 -41.1
While Parris Campbell goes up, Jalin Hyatt goes down. This one isn’t overly complicated, and Hyatt’s drop by over three rounds is a clear reaction to Campbell’s hype.
Josh Downs (WR – IND) ADP: 212.2 -23.3
There was hope post-draft that Josh Downs might be a deep threat that Anthony Richardson would lean on to open up the Colts’ passing game, but as the cold light of day dawns on drafters, more and more people are starting to consider that this Colts’ passing game might be condensed and might not be as potent as we once hoped. Downs is an exciting prospect, but he’s not someone we need to be heavily exposed to.
Chase Claypool (WR – CHI) ADP: 210.5 -20.8
Reports came out recently that Chase Claypool had failed to impress the Bears coaching staff since his incredibly expensive acquisition from the Pittsburgh Steelers during the 2022 season. It’s a shame to say, but this marries up with the vibes that came out of Pittsburgh towards the end of Claypool’s time there. Claypool went on to total 13 catches for 115 yards with the Bears, and it never became clear what they wanted to do with him. Now the Bears have brought in better competition in the shape of DJ Moore, and they will still be a run-heavy team, even if they do pass slightly more than last year. Simply put, it’s hard to imagine a ceiling outcome for Claypool.
Trey Lance (QB – SF) ADP: 211.6 -16.6
Brock Purdy goes up, Trey Lance goes down. We’ll always have the 29th of April 2021, when Lance was selected third overall.
Dalvin Cook (RB – FA) ADP: 88.8 -12.5
As Dalvin Cook continues to sit on the Free Agent market, his price continues to drop. The latest reports have Cook unhappy with the offers Miami has sent his way, and with every passing day, it seems less likely that Cook will have a workhorse role in 2023.
Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR) ADP: 141.1 -10.2
Somebody has to catch the ball people cried as a promising rookie was drafted ahead of expectations, but then time passed, and as realization set in that the Panthers might not be a potent offense this year, or even a particularly good one, drafters started to consider that perhaps Jonathan Mingo was going a tad high, almost in the 2022 Jalen Tolbert range. Mingo is a much easier pick in the 140 range than he was in the 130 range.
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