Getting the most value for each pick should be your goal every time you’re up to make a selection. That’s just a solid draft strategy. Knowing who to draft is great, but knowing when to take your guys is both an art and a science. Take your guy too early, and you risk grabbing him at his ceiling and passing on other players who have more upside baked into their cost. Wait on your athlete too long, and someone else might grab him.

Taking a look at our average draft position (ADP) and practicing mock drafts in Draft Wizard’s Mock Draft Simulator are great ways to develop a sense of when the players you seek might come off the board. Not only that, but understanding each player’s range of outcomes will allow you to judge whether each one is fairly priced, undervalued or overvalued relative to their ADP.

Which players do our featured analysts believe are going too early? Read on to see some of their favorite undervalued draft targets.

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Worst Fantasy Football Draft Value Picks by ADP

Who is the worst value pick at QB based on his current ADP and why?

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)

“While he has two elite wide receivers at his disposal, Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t get drafted as a top-12 quarterback. His injury history with concussions is a significant concern. Meanwhile, the former Alabama star was very inconsistent last year, totaling 60% of his passing touchdowns over half of his fantasy points in four contests against subpar defenses. By comparison, he averaged only 1.7 passing touchdowns and 12.8 fantasy points per game in the other nine contests. If I don’t pick a top quarterback, I’m waiting for Geno Smith or Russell Wilson instead of drafting Tagovailoa. ”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE)

“Watson is being drafted as a 6th-round pick ahead of Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott. I’m not completely positive Watson has a better fantasy season than any of these QBs. Geno Smith, for example, is fresh off a QB5 overall finish, and Seattle just added JSN to his arsenal. Then there’s Daniel Jones, who rushed for over 700 yards last season and has a good chance to do it again in 2023. I find myself struggling to draft Watson over stud WR2 options when Smith and Jones are available at least two rounds later.”
– Joe Orrico (No Expert Fantasy Football)

“After Deshaun Watson’s abysmal performance last year, there’s no way I can draft him as a top-12 quarterback option per ADP. I’m all for swinging for the fences at the quarterback position, but there are too many other options with similar upside later in drafts. If Watson roasts me for being down on his 2023 prospects, so be it, but I’m comfortable fading a quarterback with the tenth-highest turnover-worthy play rate and the fourth-lowest big-time throw rate last season (per PFF). ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ)

“Will the New York Jets landing spot for quarterback Aaron Rodgers unlock his fantasy football ceiling? Consider me skeptical because I am not sure how much fantasy upside the 39-year-old has left. Last season, he finished as a top-12 quarterback…twice. Rodgers hasn’t passed for 300 yards since Week 14 of the 2021 season. In a brand-new situation, I find it hard to buy Rodgers at his QB15 price tag. Consider that the majority of QBs with the highest weekly bust rates last season – Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson – were ALL playing on new teams. Factor in the Jets’ weakness across the offensive line, and I see no advantage in drafting Rodgers as a high-end QB2 with zero rushing to bolster his fantasy production. ”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

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Who is the worst value pick at RB based on his current ADP and why?

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)

“Last year, Saquon Barkley was the RB6, averaging 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, his production declined in the second half of the season. Barkley was the RB4, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt over the first nine contests. By comparison, the veteran was the RB16, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game and four yards per rushing attempt over the final eight weeks. There is no reason why Barkley should get drafted ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Derrick Henry.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)

“Ekeler is coming off an RB1 overall finish in 2022, posting career-highs in rushing yards, rushing TDs, targets and receptions. Justin Herbert, on the other hand, logged career lows in passing TDs and air yards. I don’t see a world where new OC Kellen Moore’s offense revolves around force-feeding Ekeler targets again, considering that resulted in a disappointing season for the Chargers last year. If 28-year-old Ekeler manages to finish a Top 2 PPR RB again in 2023, he’d be the first RB to do so three times in a row since LaDainian Tomlinson- possible, but unlikely. Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry all have the same fantasy floor and ceiling as Ekeler and are available several picks later. ”
– Joe Orrico (No Expert Fantasy Football)

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

“Josh Jacobs finished first in touches last season. This accolade is great the year that it happens, but dear lord does the history of RBs after leading the NFL touches create major concern for Jacobs after his breakout season. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. The other seven running backs were essentially all season-long busts for one reason or another. Throw in Jacobs’ ongoing holdout – and the fact that he doesn’t care about fantasy football after infamously telling his managers, “Oh well, [explicit] yo fantasy” back in 2020 – drafting the Raiders RB7 has doomsday written all over it.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Travis Etienne (RB – JAC)

“Drafting Travis Etienne as a borderline RB1 (RB13 per ADP) is absolute crazy sauce. I know I have continually beat this drum all offseason, but Tank Bigsby will factor into this backfield, and the pass game usage that everyone prays for Etienne isn’t coming to save the day. Trevor Lawrence had one of the lowest check-down rates in the NFL last year, contributing to Etienne’s minuscule 7.8% target share. Add in that Etienne was 57th out of 65 qualifying running backs in red zone touchdown conversion last year, which could lead Bigsby to become the primary red zone back in 2023, and the upside scenario for Etienne is vaporized.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

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Who is the worst value pick at WR based on his current ADP and why?

Kadarius Toney (WR – KC)

“I’ve never understood the love some in the fantasy community have for Kadarius Toney. The former Gator has missed over 40% of the games in his career because of injuries. Furthermore, he has scored under 5.5 half-point PPR fantasy points in over 60% of the games in his career. More importantly, Toney is already hurt, and it’s not even August. Skyy Moore is the only Chiefs wide receiver fantasy players should target this year. Give me Jahan Dotson, Jordan Addison, Elijah Moore, and a dozen other wide receivers with a later ADP over Toney.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

“McLaurin was out-targeted 31 to 28 by Jahan Dotson to finish the season (Weeks 13-17). Dotson also had two more touchdowns than McLaurin last year despite playing five fewer games. Now in 2023, the Commanders’ QB position is looking suspect, to say the least. There is no need to draft McLaurin at the top of the 5th round when A) Jahan Dotson is available in the 7th round and B) WRs such as Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Jerry Jeudy are going later in drafts. These latter options are clear alphas in their respective offenses and are attached to better QBs. ”
– Joe Orrico (No Expert Fantasy Football)

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

“DeVonta Smith was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game last season. He finished ninth in total points scored above expectation. Overall, he ended the year as the WR16 in points per game. So why is he drafted as the WR14 overall? Before Dallas Goedert‘s injury in Week 10, Smith was averaging fewer than 10 fantasy points per game (9.7). He was the WR29 overall. But after Goedert was sidelined from Weeks 11-15, Smith went en fuego finishing the season (Weeks 11 through 18) as the WR5. His ADP is too heavily weighing his production when Goedert missed time in the second half of the season.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

“I’m avoiding George Pickens at his WR3 price tag. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with also eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. The plate of talented wide receivers with better analytical profiles or upside is too full in that area of ADP to consider Pickens. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

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