We have a brand new season of fantasy football peeking over the horizon for 2023. After a wild NFL offseason and draft cycle, the dust has settled, and we have a shifting NFL landscape that appears ripe for the picking for fantasy. The attack plan for fantasy titles starts with the early rounds of your drafts. These early selections will build the backbone of your teams and influence how you approach the rest of your draft. Regardless of whether you love RB heavy, Zero RB, or somewhere in between, I’ve outlined my approach and targets for the first four rounds that can be tailored to fit any fantasy palate. Enjoy, and let’s have a banner year.
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Derek Brown’s Early-Round Draft Strategy & Top Targets
Here is my approach and the players to target for each of the early rounds.
Round 2
Early-Round Players to Target
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR -DET)
All of the worries that his rookie season stretch run tsunami was a mirage should be buried. St. Brown immediately picked right up where he left off in 2022. He continued to draw targets at a ridiculous rate, ranking third in target per route run rate and eighth in raw target volume. He was ninth in yards per route run and eighth in red zone targets. St. Brown could enter the top-five fantasy wide receiver discussion this season if his late-season red zone use continues into this upcoming year. In Weeks 10-18, St. Brown led all wide receivers in red zone targets. He carries a double-digit receiving touchdown upside this year. With Jameson Williams out of commission for the first six weeks, St. Brown could be headed for a career-defining season.
Only 3️⃣ WRs last year finished…
TOP ? in both YPRR vs MAN & ZONE
(min 15 man or zone tgs per PFF)Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb
AMON-RA ST. BROWN ???ARSB is primed for a CAREER YEAR. pic.twitter.com/Grcoq2CUrU
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 20, 2023
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
Pollard is on a collision course with a monstrous season. With Ezekiel Elliott out of town, this is Pollard’s backfield. While I don’t think he will be an 80% snap bell cow, he doesn’t need that type of snap share to be a fantasy dynamo in 2023. Last year Pollard authored an RB8 finish while ranking 30th in snap share (50.9%) and 34th in opportunity share (48.1%). He did this because he’s one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. He was top-five in breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, yards per route run, and yards per touch. Pollard will cede some snaps to another back this season, whether that’s Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, or another replacement level shmo. This won’t deter Pollard from his destiny as a top-three running back in fantasy in 2023.
Mid-Round Player to Target
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Calling Jaylen Waddle the Robin to Tyreek Hill’s Batman would be blasphemous. This tandem of South Beach dynamos is more like Batman and Superman. Each has the power to tip any game in favor of the fins. While Hill destroyed defenses deep, Waddle was the underneath threat decimating coverage schemes with his blinding speed and YAC skills. Waddle ranked 10th in YAC and fourth in yards per route run as he cruised to a WR1 season (WR12 in fantasy points per game). Waddle can put you over the top weekly as your WR2, but if you lean into other positions early, he is a viable WR1 for your team.
Late-Round Player to Target
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
Even if you had lofty expectations for Chris Olave in his rookie season, he likely still surpassed them. His WR25 finish might not look fantastic on the surface, but Olave’s deeper metrics point to a future alpha that could break out in his second year. Olave was 15th in target share (26.7%), third in air yard share (40.8%), and 10th in yards per route run. Michael Thomas‘s return doesn’t worry me at all. Thomas isn’t the same player he was during his prime. If he can stay on the field and get open at an above-average clip, it should help Olave by keeping opposing defenses honest and reluctant to roll extra coverage Olave’s way. Olave could easily be a WR1 if Derek Carr can be a league-average passer.
WR2s in ADP that are MONSTER WR1s
Chris Olave
Christian Watson
Keenan Allen & MORE ?https://t.co/ZuFCJPLMUY— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 19, 2023
Round 3
Early-Round Player to Target
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Hall was just getting warmed up when injury struck last year. When his knee failed him in Week 7, he was coming off four straight weeks with at least 50% of the snaps averaging 18.8 touches and 122 total yards. Over that span, he was the RB13, RB15, RB4, and RB6 in weekly fantasy scoring. His recovery from the ACL tear is a concern, no doubt, but the talent and situation are lining up for Hall to have a stellar sophomore season if his knee is sound. Hall ranked first in yards after contact per attempt, first in elusive rating, and third in breakaway percentage (minimum 75 rushing attempts per PFF). Imagine that talent getting to run against lighter boxes this year. That’s called the Aaron Rodgers effect. Over the last three years, Aaron Jones ranked no higher than 39th in the average number of defenders in the box. That’ll be a drastic difference for Hall, who saw the sixth-highest average number of defenders in the box last year. Expect the Jets to work in other backs all year to keep Hall fresh, but losing empty calorie touches to other players won’t derail his banner season incoming.
Mid-Round Player to Target
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
Hurts for MVP in 2023. That has a nice ring to it. Hurts fell just short of delivering on my proclamation last year. He was the QB1 in fantasy points per game, headlining an explosive Eagles offense. As good as he was last year, Hurts can still get even better through the air this year. The efficiency numbers were there last season as he ranked fourth in passing grade, seventh in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in yards per attempt (per PFF), but the passing touchdown rate didn’t follow. Hurts ranked 15th in passing touchdown rate and 14th in passing touchdowns. Those numbers are primed to improve this year. Hurts won’t come as cheap as he did last year in drafts, but he’s worth paying up for.
What I hear when people toss the same BAD narratives at Justin Fields that they used with Jalen Hurts:pic.twitter.com/qM8i4dPSzJ
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 1, 2023
Late-Round Players to Target
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
Justin Fields put his league-winning upside on display last year. Overall he was the QB5 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 7-11, after the team committed to utilizing his legs more, he was the QB1 in fantasy points per game during this span. The rushing acumen is a known commodity, so there’s no reason to dive headlong into that area. The passing department is where many want to toss shade at Fields to find mind-numbing reasons to fade him. Well, I don’t agree with that at all, and if you look at the right details, you shouldn’t either. In Weeks 7-16, Fields should have proved to the world that his passing prowess is on the rise. During that stretch, he was eighth in adjusted completion rate, 12th in big-time throw rate, and 13th in passer rating (per PFF). Investing in Fields this year feels oddly reminiscent of going all in on Jalen Hurts last year. I’m willing to make that bet all over again.
I said WHAT I SAID. pic.twitter.com/XJZNoequf9
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) June 12, 2023
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
The old man and injured slander have gone far enough with Keenan Allen. Allen didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year, and he has started at least 13 games in each of the last five seasons before 2022. Last year Allen ranked 12th in receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run (per PFF). The yards per route run mark was his highest (2.08) since the 2.32 he posted in 2018. Once healthy last season Allen was crushing souls in his usual high-volume role as the WR3 in fantasy points per game. With Kellen Moore dictating the play calling, the Chargers could lead the NFL in passing attempts and plays run. This means more volume and a higher upside for Allen in 2023.
When in doubt…
JUST DRAFT more KEENAN ALLEN ✅ pic.twitter.com/SdgqbZBzO1
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 11, 2023
Round 4
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
J.K. Dobbins is set to put the split backfield worries and the cap on his production in the past. Todd Monken gifted top-10 opportunity shares to Nick Chubb and Peyton Barber in his last two years leading an NFL offense. Bye-bye, Greg Roman. This couldn’t come at a better time as Dobbins’ health should be back to 100%, allowing him to shoulder the load and make some money in a contract year. Dobbins’ talent has never been a question. Last year operating with one healthy leg, he ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage, and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries per PFF). During his rookie season, he was top 12 in each of these metrics (eighth, second, 11th). In most cases, Dobbins will be drafted as a mid to low-end RB2, but he offers RB1 upside.
J.K. Dobbins is a SMASH VALUE
Listen Why:https://t.co/7qgEJUHGZV pic.twitter.com/szISaSCltE
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 11, 2023
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
Don’t let Aaron Jones’ advancing age fool you. He’s still producing as if he’s still firmly in the prime of his career. Last year Jones was the RB11 in fantasy points per game as he continued to rattle off filthy efficiency numbers. He was 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway percentage, and ninth in PFF’s elusive rating. The stellar numbers weren’t confined to early downs, as he was also 17th in yards per route run and ninth in target share among running backs. At age 28, I’m willing to bet Jones has at least one more RB1 season left in him before volume and time begin to catch up with him.
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
I’ll never stop. I can’t stop. I won’t stop with my man crush for Christian Watson. After a slow start last year due to injuries and the need to develop a rapport with his rookie-hating pout-prone former quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Watson’s talent finally bubbled to the top. In Weeks 10-18, Watson had six games in which he played at least 80% of the snaps. In those games, he earned a 23.4% target share, 42.9% end zone target share, and a 26% target per route run rate. He rolled up 3.07 yards per route run during that string of games. If Jordan Love hopes to have a successful season as the new starter in Green Bay, he’ll need to lean on Watson heavily. Watson has monster WR1 upside.
Christian Watson pic.twitter.com/7lPE27hS0r
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 23, 2023
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, Football Outsiders, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
