Rookies often carry unrealistic expectations into their first seasons in the NFL, but by the time they get to their second year, we have a better understanding of the player and how their team views them. With dynasty being a game where we always have to be mindful of market fluctuations, now is a good time to consider what will be a success or failure for these second-year players.
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2023 Second-Year Players: NFC
Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL): ADP RB42
It wasn’t too long ago that anyone who drafted the Allgeier in their rookie drafts was starting to feel like they had fallen into a prime fantasy asset. Unfortunately, now he seems more likely to follow the path of other late-round running backs like James Robinson and Michael Carter who gave us seasons of great value before becoming depth options at best.
Arthur Smith walks to his own beat, and, perhaps, it’s possible that we see the Falcons bring along Bijan Robinson slowly. For many dynasty managers, however, the chance to sell high on Allgeier has already passed, and, short of an injury to Robinson, they’ll never get another chance like that.
The Falcons’ running scheme should allow Allgeier to be productive when he finds the field, but deciding when you can start him will be very tricky from here on out. If you can secure a random second-round pick for Allgeier, it might be worth the gamble in the hope the team you trade to collapses and you luck into a high pick.
Drake London (WR – ATL); ADP WR13
The Falcons looked to have a straight-out-of-the-box superstar in London when he opened the 2022 season as the WR14 over the first three games. Then, Smith couldn’t stop himself, and the offense dropped from averaging 26 pass attempts in those first few games, all the way down to 22 attempts per game for the rest of the season.
There were glimmers of hope with London though. He averaged 13 PPR points per game over the last four, and it seems apparent that, as long as the Falcons throw the ball at a close-to-average rate, London can be a star. To trade for him, you’ll be faced with giving up a very high first-round pick. It might be more prudent to try to find a way to package players together in order to acquire London.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET): ADP WR31
A year ago, it seemed prudent to bet on Williams being able to recover from his ACL injury and return to the kind of form that had NFL teams salivating over him before he committed to the draft. Fast forward to the present day, and, if you drafted Williams, you’re likely looking at waiting till the back half of this season to ever get a usable performance from the one-time star receiver.
Williams is banned for the first six games due to an infringement of the NFL’s gambling policy. The history of success is very limited for players to miss as much time as Williams will in his first two years, but the circumstances are different to most. He’s a high-risk, high-upside trade candidate right now whose value will only increase as we get closer to him stepping back on the field.
Christian Watson (WR – GB): ADP WR20
With this new-look Packers offense set to try and move on from Aaron Rodgers, there is a lot that we don’t know. For instance, it would be perfectly within the range of outcomes for Jordan Love to build a bond with Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed and for either to become the target leader in this offense instead of Watson.
It’s understandable that Watson is the natural lean given both draft capital invested in him and the fact that, between Weeks 10 and 13, he put up 99 PPR points. That was good enough to be the overall WR3 in that period. Then, things dropped off dramatically.
Watson had just one more performance over 12 points for the rest of the season. His range of outcomes are huge, and he’s not an easy player to buy right now. If you can sell high, it might look like the most prudent move a year from now.
Chris Olave (WR – NO): ADP WR8
Despite the Saints’ quarterback situation being less than bountiful for fantasy purposes in 2022, Olave had a breakout rookie season with almost a thousand yards and 2.25 yards per team pass attempt. He led all rookie wide receivers in half PPR per game with 10.7. If it wasn’t for missing a couple of games, he would have been the rookie WR1 in total points.
Olave had the 13th most deep targets at the position. With a QB upgrade on the way, he’s only trending north. He is potentially on the cusp of a true jump into the elite WR tier. While it might feel expensive to buy him at the moment, it might cost a whole lot more in another year.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA): ADP RB10
The Seahawks could easily have rolled into 2023 with Walker as their lead running back, but they seemingly weren’t content to stand on what they had and drafted Zach Charbonnet with the 52nd pick. This came on the back of Walker being the RB16 in half PPR points per game and scoring more points than any other rookie running back in an impressive debut season.
Between weeks 4 and 10, Walker was the RB6 across a period where he averaged 16.1 points per game, looking like a true league winner. Down the stretch, he got banged up and his numbers suffered with significant dips in missed tackles, big-run percentage and touchdown rate.
Walker averaged the 15th highest opportunity share among running backs in 2022. That was in part due to Rashaad Penny missing all but five games. Now, with Charbonnet set to play a healthy portion of snaps, it’s fair to question if Walker’s value has already peaked in dynasty.
Rachaad White (RB – TB); ADP RB20
Tampa hasn’t brought in any competition of note for White who is now primed to have every opportunity to prove he is a three-down back. White was a good pass-catcher in 2022, with the third-highest catch rate among all running backs who had 50 or more receptions. In the ground game, however, he left much to be desired, ranking 140th in Expected Points Added and 51st in Juke Rate.
White struggled to be efficient. Now, he no longer has Tom Brady throwing him the ball. We could see White’s value drop steeply this year. If you’re not a contender and you can trade him for a first-round pick, it might be time to consider it.
Sam Howell (QB – WAS): ADP QB28
The Commanders seem to be comfortable with the idea that Howell will start the season as their QB1. Their signing of Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $8m deal does seem to suggest they want a reliable alternative though.
Howell was only able to force his way into the starting lineup in 2022 for the very last game of the season despite the Commanders missing their starting quarterback Carson Wentz for much of the season. It feels like a lot of projection to assume that Howell will now be a reliable starter with the only evidence being one game in which he completed 11 of his 19 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown.
Brissett is a well-rounded and experienced quarterback who coaches like. It’s worth noting that the Commanders have now been sold to new owners who might not want to see below-average performances after purchasing the team.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS); ADP RB 33
Neither Antonio Gibson nor Robinson did much in 2022 to convince fantasy managers or the Commanders’ coaching staff that either deserves the vast majority of touches over the other one. It does seem like the Commanders were convinced enough by the pairing to not need to add any additional running back of note at least for now.
Gibson profiles more as the receiving back. Robinson should enjoy a healthier start to this season than last and will likely be the ground-and-pound runner who sees the majority of the volume. If Howell is a competent dual-threat quarterback, then it could open up rushing lanes for Robinson to exploit.
Trading for Robinson will cost you a mid-to-late second-round pick. It’s not without risk, but sometimes risk brings opportunity. If you believe in Robinson, now is a good time to buy.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS): ADP WR41
The third Commanders player on this list might just be the most exciting one. Dotson finished the season with six games over 16 PPR points, including three from Week 13 onwards. The Commanders garner less interest than some of the flashier teams across the league, which perhaps explains why Dotson’s season flew under the radar somewhat.
Heading into 2023, Dotson should be firmly on fantasy manager’s lists of sleepers to draft. He seems primed to increase in value from his current price of a late first-round pick.
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