What does it mean to “Wait on a QB,” and should we be doing it?

If we select Patrick Mahomes in Round 5, one could definitely say we lucked out by “waiting.”

At face value, however, “waiting” for a quarterback (in a standard-ish size/format league) probably means not selecting one until Round 9 at the absolute earliest.

By then, we’ve likely selected each of our non-defense-or-kicker starters as well as a bench player or two. In most leagues, at least 10 quarterbacks have been selected by then as well.

This means we’re piecing together the quarterback position with two players whose upside we like. We’re rolling two dice and hoping one lands how we want it.

So, how did that pan out last year?

What does it mean for this upcoming season?

• More Fantasy Football Advice
• Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
• Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
• Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

Was waiting on a QB strategy effective in 2022? (2023 Fantasy Football)

In 2022, six of the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks held an average draft position (ADP) of pick 96 (Round 9) or later.

That is the beginning of unequivocal evidence that waiting on quarterback does work. However, there’s also unequivocal evidence that selecting a quarterback early works. Patrick Mahomes in the third round might be a slight reach, but it (essentially) guarantees us a top-five fantasy quarterback.

How to Identify a Late-Round QB

The poster children of successfully waiting on QB usually fall into one of two categories:

The “Everything clicks” guy

OR

The “Also a running back” guy

Everything clicks

Matt Ryan in 2016 and 2018 is a great example of the former. He was drafted as the QB24 in 2016 and the QB13 in 2018. He finished as the QB2 both years. He’s not giving you any help on the ground, but he ran an offense like a hot knife through butter those seasons. The offenses were pass-happy, he had a stud WR1 (Julio Jones), and he simply took command with efficiency.

A prime example of this player from last season was Geno Smith, your QB5.

Also a running back

The “Also a running back guy” is a mobile quarterback who also has some success through the air. Justin Fields‘ ADP last season was QB20, and he finished as QB6. In 2019 Lamar Jackson was drafted as QB11 and finished as the QB1 by 70 fantasy points.

2023 Late Quarterback Targets

This season, a few of my “Everything clicks” candidates are Tua Tagovailoa (QB11) and Matthew Stafford (QB19). Tagovailoa has two of the most electric receivers in all of football in a fantasy-friendly offense. Stafford is expected to be fully healthy along with Cooper Kupp, who posted one of the best receiving seasons of all time just two seasons ago.

The “Also a running back guy” is less common, simply because we know who runs and who doesn’t. Anthony Richardson (QB18) is definitely a candidate to post some solid rushing statistics. I’d put Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder in this category as well, and they’re basically free right now (QBs 30 and 31, respectively). Neither are run-first quarterbacks, but both have showcased fantastic instincts running the football.

Howell ran for more than 1,000 yards and 17 touchdowns in college. Ridder ran a 4.49 40-yard dash and had some big preseason runs and plays in Arthur Smith’s offense.

Another advantage of waiting on QB is the ability to play the matchups. Maybe Jared Goff is up against a stout defense. That’s fine. We’ll roll out Tua Tagovailoa that week, no sweat. The downside of this, however, is unless we strike gold, we’ll likely always be rostering two quarterbacks. If we have Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, we’re only rostering two QBs during their bye week.

2023 Late QB Draft Advice

Here’s my advice: Don’t get cute.

Waiting on quarterback works if you trust yourself to play matchups, cut bait and make tweaks when necessary.

On the same note, if Patrick Mahomes is falling past his ADP, don’t look back for a second. You just snagged a perennial QB1 contender. However, if your opponents start a quarterback feeding frenzy in the second round (assuming this is a 1QB league), feel free to snag your stud position players early and fill up on depth. You’ll be alright with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford or Geno Smith and Sam Howell late in the draft.

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