The 2023 USFL Championship Game is a lopsided matchup. As a result, one team is well represented, and one isn’t. This week’s USFL DFS primer is different because it’s a showdown slate. So, the options will be narrowed for both teams. However, there’s also additional analysis about who to use as the captain and how to construct the roster.
Game: Pittsburgh Maulers at Birmingham Stallions
Spread: BIR -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
The 2023 USFL Championship Game is a lopsided matchup. As a result, one team is well represented, and one isn’t. This week’s USFL DFS primer is different because it’s a showdown slate. So, the options will be narrowed for both teams. However, there’s also additional analysis about who to use as the captain and how to construct the roster.
Game: Pittsburgh Maulers at Birmingham Stallions
Spread: BIR -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Maulers Analysis: The Maulers outlasted the rest of the lowly North Division and will have a chance to win the USFL championship. However, their offense is lousy. Pittsburgh gained the fewest yards per game (242.6) in the regular season and averaged only 17.7 points per game. Their lackluster offense doesn't have many intriguing options.
Troy Williams is interesting, though. The dual-threat quarterback had more than 18.0 DraftKings points four times this year, including a 21.0-point effort against the Stallions in Week 4. He'll be busy passing if the underdog Maulers are in a negative game script. And if they spring the upset, his legs will probably have a sizable hand in a Pittsburgh victory.
Besides Williams, it's wise to save money when picking options from the Maulers. So, Ishmael Hyman and Matt Seybert are appealing punts, allowing gamers to spend nearly all their cap space on the Stallions. Hyman popped out of nowhere for four receptions, 32 receiving yards and one touchdown reception on six targets last week. Maybe, he can build momentum on last week's out-of-nowhere performance.
Seybert is the minimum salary but has a role in Pittsburgh's offense. He's had at least three targets in five of his last six games. Most importantly, he provides salary relief to spend on the Stallions.
Stallions Analysis: While Pittsburgh's offense is pathetic, Birmingham's offense is prolific. The Stallions scored the most points (287) in the regular season, 50 more than the second-highest total. They also led the USFL in yards per game (332.6). Alex McGough was the offense's focal point, using his legs and arm to torch teams.
He was third in passing yards per game (210.4), first in yards per attempt (7.9), first in touchdown passes (20) and first in quarterback rating (108.3) among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts this year. In the regular season, McGough was also ninth in rushing yards per game (40.3) and third in rushing touchdowns (five). Thus, McGough is the crown jewel of this showdown slate.
Davion Davis is the highest-ceiling pass-catching weapon. In his last four games, Davis has had 28 targets, 21 receptions, 333 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns and five rushing yards. He's had more than 100 yards twice during that stretch and scored two touchdowns last week.
Jace Sternberger is another high-ceiling weapon in the passing attack. He's scored a touchdown in five consecutive games and had a three-game streak reaching paydirt to begin the season. The pass-catching tight end and McGough have an incredible rapport in the red zone. Fortunately, Sternberger isn't a touchdown-or-bust option, either. He's had at least three receptions and 58 receiving yards in four straight games.
Deon Cain is a late bloomer in this offense. The wideout's most significant impact was on special teams earlier in the year -- more on that to come. However, he's become a crucial part of the offense down the stretch. In the last four weeks, Cain has had 26 targets, 20 receptions, 205 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Josh Johnson had his most productive game of the season last week. He had two receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown on three targets. Can his outburst earn him more chances this week? Maybe.
C.J. Marable is Birmingham's bell cow running back. He's had at least 12 opportunities (rush attempts and targets) in eight straight games. Marable also had at least 60 scrimmage yards in six consecutive games. Marable has had only two receptions for eight scoreless yards in the previous two games. Nevertheless, he's been an integral part of the passing attack at times this year. In Week 7 through Week 9, Marable had 16 targets, 14 receptions and 135 receiving yards. So, he's game-script-proof.
Birmingham's defense isn't as accomplished as their offense. However, they can score points in bunches if the Maulers are put in predictable passing situations in a negative game script. Furthermore, in the final thoughts, there is a galaxy-brain reason for using them.
Final Thoughts: McGough is the no-brainer pick for the captain spot. Gamers can be contrarian if they enter many lineups or fire one maximum contrarian bullet. Otherwise, building 100% of showdown rosters using McGough as the captain is not outrageous.
Onslaught lineups that include five Stallions and only one Mauler are my favorite lineup construction. As for the galaxy-brain idea teased above, gamers are encouraged to use Cain and Davis with Birmingham's defense to maximize the scoring potential. Cain scored two kickoff return touchdowns this year, including housing a return against the Maulers in Week 4. Additionally, Davis is the team's punt returner. So, Davis has the potential to score a touchdown on a punt return, even though he didn't do so during the regular season. Thus, using Birmingham's defense with Cain and Davis opens the door for doubling up DK points for touchdowns.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
