Tonight’s MLB slate is bursting at the seams, giving gamers a vast collection of pick ’em options at Underdog Fantasy. The highlighted picks in today’s piece have something for everyone. There’s a mix of pitcher and hitter selections. Additionally, there are some enticing overs and unders.
Get 100% Deposit Match up to $100 at Underdog 
Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Ryan McMahon: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Lower
McMahon is hitting well with the platoon advantage on the road this year. However, his larger body of work is less impressive. According to FanGraphs, in 499 plate appearances against righties on the road since 2021, McMahon has had 17 homers, a .319 OBP, .172 ISO and 99 wRC+. So, he’s been a tick below average.
The matchup isn’t easy for him tonight, either. Kutter Crawford has a 3.68 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 4.1 BB%, 24.5 K% and 27.2 CSW% in 36.2 innings this year. Further, Boston’s bullpen is above average. Thus, 7.5 fantasy points is a high bar for McMahon to clear tonight, making the under the better pick.
Luis Severino: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower
Severino has struck out over 5.0 batters once in four starts this year. Obviously, that’s an excellent starting point for taking the under. Although, he’s pushed twice. The underlying data isn’t good for Severino’s punchout potential tonight.
First, his velocity has dipped. In his first two starts, he averaged 97.4 mph with his heater. That’s declined to 95.3 mph in his last two starts. Second, Severino’s swinging-strike rate has also dipped from a 13.3 SwStr% in his first start this year to an 8.3 SwStr% in three subsequent starts.
Severino’s below-average bat-missing ability won’t cut it for piling up strikeouts against the Mets. They’re tied for the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.5 K%) against right-handed pitchers this year. Thus, Severino will have difficulty striking out over 5.0 batters tonight.
Corbin Burnes: 7.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Burnes stumbled out of the blocks in 2023. Fortunately, he’s rounded into good form. Since striking out over 7.0 batters only once in his first seven starts, he’s struck out at least seven in five of his last six starts.
In Burnes’s last six starts spanning 38.0 innings, he’s had a 2.84 ERA, 3.94 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 43 strikeouts, 10.18 K/9, a 27.9 K% and 13.2 SwStr%. The former NL Cy Young Award winner has a cushy matchup for stacking strikeouts tonight.
First, the Twins have the highest strikeout rate (27.0 K%) against righties in 2023. Second, Minnesota has had the highest strikeout rate (29.2 K%) in the last 14 days. Third, they have the highest strikeout rate (26.7 K%) at home this year. As a result, Burnes should strike out over 7.0 batters tonight.
Joc Pederson: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Pederson drilled two homers in his last action on Sunday. Yet, this isn’t a point-chasing pick. Instead, this is a matchup-based suggestion based on Pederson’s excellence against righties and Jack Flaherty‘s ineptitude against lefties.
In 112 plate appearances against righties this year, Pederson has seven homers, a .393 OBP, .277 ISO and 158 wRC+. The left-handed slugger has raked against righties since joining San Francisco in free agency last year. In 488 plate appearances against them since 2022, he’s had a .365 OBP, .264 ISO and 151 wRC+.
Conversely, lefties are tattooing Flaherty. The 27-year-old righty has coughed up a .394 OBP and .360 wOBA to lefties this year. Therefore, the outlook is excellent for Pederson tonight.
Brandon Drury: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Drury has significant power and shows it off against lefties. In 250 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021, he’s had 19 doubles, 16 homers, a .283 batting average, .565 SLG, .283 ISO and 4.0 BB%. Thus, Drury is swinging the bat and not taking free passes. He’s also effectively used an aggressive approach lately. In his last 143 plate appearances, he’s had 11 doubles, one triple, five homers, a .265 batting average, .477 SLG, .212 ISO and 4.9 BB%.
The Rangers haven’t announced a starter, but Cody Bradford is expected to toe the slab. Bradford is a rookie lefty with a 7.20 ERA, 5.87 xERA and 5.10 xFIP in his first two starts in the majors. He’s not the caliber pitcher to give Drury trouble tonight.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
