The MLB action is locked and loaded for tonight, and the Underdog Fantasy pick ’em lobby is stacked. There are tons of options. However, this pick narrows the vast choices to the five best. The featured selections tonight lean toward overs and pitching. The first touted play is a hitting prop, but the four others are strikeout props.
Get 100% Deposit Match up to $100 at Underdog
Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Matt Olson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Olson crushes right-handed pitching. According to FanGraphs, in 226 plate appearances against righties this year, Olson has six doubles, one triple, 17 homers, a .247 batting average, .565 SLG and .317 ISO.
Conversely, Dinelson Lamet struggles with left-handed batters. The 61 lefties who’ve faced Lamet this year have had five doubles, one triple, three homers, a .400 batting average and .720 SLG. Lamet’s struggles against lefties aren’t a new development, either. Since 2021, he’s coughed up a .315 batting average and .543 SLG to 225 left-handed batters.
J.P. France: 5.5 Strikeouts – Higher
France was a strikeout whiz in the upper minors. In 244.0 innings in the upper minors (Double-A and Triple-A) since 2021, he had 319 strikeouts, 11.77 K/9 and a 30.5 K%.
The 28-year-old rookie hasn’t piled up punchouts at as prolific a rate in the majors. Still, France has put his best foot forward lately. He’s struck out at least six batters in three of his last four games. In his last four starts spanning 25.1 innings, he’s had 25 strikeouts, 8.88 K/9, a 23.8 K% and 10.8 SwStr%.
France’s swinging-strike percentage wasn’t impressive during that stretch. A more granular look was encouraging, though. France has three pitches he can strike out batters with when he gets them to two strikes. Per FanGraphs, his changeup has a 13.1 SwStr%, his slider is better (14.7 SwStr%) and his curve is the best (20.8 SwStr%) putaway pitch.
The Reds are a decent matchup for France’s strikeout potential tonight. Cincinnati is tied for the 11th-highest strikeout rate (23.2 K%) against right-handed pitchers this season.
Joe Ryan: 7.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Ryan was on fire to start his 2023. Unfortunately, he’s been more pedestrian lately. Thus, Ryan had under 7.0 strikeouts in his last four starts. Regardless, there aren’t glaring issues in his game log to suggest it’s more than a blip on the radar.
The 27-year-old can return to punching out hitters in bunches tonight at home. First, Ryan has excelled at home. In 128.1 innings at home in his career, he has a 3.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 140 strikeouts, 9.82 K/9 and a 27.1 K%.
Second, the Tigers strike out a ton in any applicable split. Detroit has the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.2 K%) against righties in 2023. They have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (26.2 K%) in the last 14 days. Finally, the Tigers are tied for the sixth-highest strikeout rate (25.4 K%) on the road this season.
JP Sears: 5.5 Strikeouts – Higher
Sears isn’t a dominant pitcher with a high-octane arsenal. Still, he’s pitched adequately. Additionally, the southpaw has pitched at his best at home. In 28.0 innings at home this year, Sears has a 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 23 strikeouts, 7.39 K/9 and a 20.5 K%.
Sears can tap into more strikeouts tonight against the Phillies. Philadelphia strikes out frequently against lefties. This year, they have the seventh-highest strikeout rate (25.4 K%) against southpaws. They also have a 24.0 K% on the road this year.
Michael Kopech: 7.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Kopech had a lousy start to 2023. That’s a distant memory now. Kopech has pitched at an ace level lately. In his last five starts spanning 31.1 innings, he’s had a 1.72 ERA, 2.38 SIERA, 0.67 WHIP, 44 strikeouts, 12.64 K/9, 37.6 K% and 15.5 SwStr%. Kopech punched out 10, 9, 10, 9 and 6 in those games.
He can shove it down Seattle’s throats tonight. The Mariners have the third-highest strikeout rate (25.3 K%) against righties this year. They’ve had the ninth-highest strikeout rate (24.9 K%) in the last 14 days. And Seattle has the fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.8 K%) in home games this season. Finally, the betting markets expect Kopech to strike out at least seven batters tonight, with the over for 6.5 strikeouts juiced to around -150 to -155 at many sportsbooks.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.