Tonight’s slate is stacked. Only the Cubs and Cardinals aren’t playing today. So, gamers have a vast collection of pick ’em options at Underdog Fantasy. This piece narrows the options to five picks. The picks are a split of hitter and pitcher props, featuring two of the former and three of the latter.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Byron Buxton: 8.0 Fantasy Points – Higher
Buxton hit two mammoth homers yesterday and might be ready to go on a heater. Additionally, he’s excelled at home. According to FanGraphs, in 481 plate appearances at home since 2021, Buxton has had 20 doubles, three triples, 35 homers, a .314 OBP, .303 ISO and 137 wRC+.
The matchup is also good for Buxton. Joey Wentz has a 6.82 ERA, 5.62 xERA and 4.68 xFIP in 14 appearances (13 starts) this year, totaling 62.0 innings. The lefty has also coughed up a .296 batting average, .347 OBP, .520 SLG and .371 wOBA to 213 righties this season.
Jesus Luzardo: 6.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Luzardo is a different pitcher at home than on the road. The lefty dominates from the hill in Miami. In 47.1 innings at home this year, he’s had a 3.04 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 55 strikeouts, 10.46 K/9 and a 29.4 K%.
Luzardo struck out fewer than 6.0 batters in his last two starts. However, both games were on the road. He’s struck out over 6.0 batters in his last three home tilts. Luzardo has also struck out at least 6.0 batters in six of eight games in Miami.
The young lefty can carve up the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh has a modest 21.3 K% against lefties this year. However, they’ve had a 23.0 K% in the last 14 days. The Pirates have also had a 24.0 K% on the road this year.
Brayan Bello: 5.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Bello is enjoying a breakout in his sophomore campaign. In 11 starts spanning 59.1 innings this year, he’s had a 3.49 ERA, 4.34 xERA, 3.80 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, 57 strikeouts, 8.65 K/9, a 22.2 K% and 27.1 CSW%. Bello has struck out at least 5.0 batters in eight of 11 starts this year, going over 5.0 strikeouts four times.
The righty has an excellent matchup for striking out batters tonight. The White Sox have a 23.2 K% against righties, a 26.0 K% in the last 14 days and a 22.2 K% at home. So, Bello should strike out at least five batters if he pitches a minimum of five innings tonight.
Ezequiel Tovar: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Tovar has some pop against left-handed pitchers. In 84 plate appearances against lefties in his young big-league career, he’s had five doubles, one triple, four homers, a .263 batting average, .500 SLG and .238 ISO.
The right-handed batter will get a lift from his park factors at home tonight. Coors Field has right-handed-batter park factors of 1.301 for homes, 1.169 for singles, 1.395 for doubles and 1.535 for triples. Meanwhile, Patrick Sandoval hasn’t struck out many righties this year. The left-handed hurler has struck out only 44 of 251 righties (17.5 K%) in 2023. So, his low strikeout rate won’t do him favors in the hitting conditions at Coors Field.
Emmet Sheehan: 4.5 Strikeouts – Lower
Sheehan threw six no-hit innings against the Giants last Friday. It was an ideal big-league debut from that view. However, Sheehan had only three strikeouts and a 4.5 SwStr% in his first start in The Show. Sheehan also couldn’t convince the Giants to fish out of the strike zone, netting only a 19.2 O-Swing%.
San Francisco has struck out in 24.4% of their plate appearances against righties this year. Thus, Sheehan’s underwhelming strikeout rate isn’t ideal for a more challenging matchup for strikeouts tonight. The Astros have a 22.6 K% against righties this year. Moreover, they’ve had a 19.3 K% in the last 14 days. Finally, their 22.4 K% on the road this year isn’t outrageous.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.