Tight end is a position of intrigue in the offseason and annual disappointment during the fantasy season. The cycle is vicious. Gamers get excited about a late-round breakout candidate, and the tight end face plants. So, of course, hitting on a consistent high-end contributor can create a fantasy championship-winning edge.
Unfortunately, many mid-round breakout candidates also fail to deliver on their potential. And the difference in the opportunity cost between missing on a late-round dart and an early-to-mid-round tight end is significant.
So, while the two tight ends in this piece are ranked reasonably relative to their peers at tight end, they’re being selected too early compared to all positions. As is frequently the case in an article about players to avoid, they shouldn’t be avoided at all costs. Instead, these tight ends should be avoided at their average draft position (ADP) in half-point point-per-reception (PPR) formats.
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Tight Ends to Avoid
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN): 43.0 ADP/37 ECR
The Vikings traded for Hockenson last year, and he quickly integrated himself into the offense. In fact, Hockenson was the club’s No. 2 weapon in the passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), including the postseason, Hockenson was second on the Vikings in targets (92), receptions (70) and receiving yards (648) in the 11 games he was on the club. Hockenson also scored three receiving touchdowns, ranking fourth for Minnesota in those games.
However, Hockenson’s production was primarily volume driven in an offense lacking viable weapons beyond world-beater Justin Jefferson. In fact, per PFF, Hockenson’s Yards per Route Run slipped from 1.87 Y/RR on the Lions to 1.65 Y/RR on the Vikings in 2022. The eighth pick in the 2019 NFL Draft has also been more good than great in the metric compared to other tight ends throughout his career.
Among 43 tight ends targeted at least 35 times in 2020, Hockenson was 11th (1.57 Y/RR). Out of 38 tight ends targeted at least 35 times in 2021, he was 14th (1.48 Y/RR). And from a group of 42 tight ends targeted at least 35 times in 2022, Hockenson was sixth (1.73 Y/RR). Yards per Route Run isn’t the be-all and end-all.
However, Hockenson also didn’t light PFF’s grading on fire. Among the same samples of tight ends, Hockenson was 13th in PFF’s receiving grade in 2020, 10th in 2021 and ninth in 2022. Thus, Hockenson needs a hefty volume to live up to his expectations as a fourth-round pick in fantasy drafts.
Sadly, a repeat of last year’s volume while on the Vikings is unlikely. First, Jefferson is a highly-effective target hog. Second, the Vikings selected wide receiver Jordan Addison 23rd in this year’s NFL Draft, ostensibly swapping him in for a declining Adam Thielen. The rookie who won the 2021 Fred Biletnikoff Award as college football’s best wide receiver is likely a more significant threat to Hockenson’s target share than Thielen. The veteran wideout had his worst mark for Yards per Route Run (1.08 Y/RR) and worst PFF receiving grade of his career in 2022.
Finally, even as Minnesota’s locked-in No. 2 pass-catching option last year, Hockenson was only the TE4 in half-point PPR points per game (10.9 PPG) from Week 9 (when he joined the Vikings) through Week 17 (the final week of the fantasy season). Hockenson should be selected in the same general area as George Kittle, Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goedert. And since he’s drafted significantly earlier than that trio, Hockenson should be avoided.
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): 90.0 ADP/87 ECR
Engram turned his career around with a change of scenery last year. He escaped from incompetent offensive coaches during his tenure with the Giants and thrived playing for Doug Pederson in his first season on the Jaguars. Engram was the TE8 in half-point PPR PPG in 2022.
However, even though he was a top-10 tight end last year, his underlying stats weren’t entirely encouraging. Instead, Engram’s PFF receiving grade was 17th and his 1.45 Y/RR was 14th among tight ends targeted at least 35 times. He was also targeted on an unremarkable 18.6% of his routes. Those marks weren’t bad. But they weren’t special, either.
Engram is unquestionably an elite athlete. Although, he’s not a nuanced and refined tight end. Pederson wisely accentuated Engram’s athleticism by feeding him high-percentage looks. Per PFF, he had 21 targets behind the line of scrimmage, 63 from zero to nine yards downfield, 21 10-to-19 yards downfield and nine 20-plus yards downfield.
As a result, Engram’s 6.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) was tied for the 13th-shallowest mark at the position. He was counted on to do damage after the catch and delivered, ranking sixth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (6.7 YAC/REC). His role was effective and helpful in Jacksonville’s offense.
Still, Engram will probably see a downturn in targets this year. The team traded for Calvin Ridley last year and will be able to use their new weapon this year since he was reinstated from his suspension for gambling. Ridley was targeted on 25.9% of his routes for the Falcons in 2021 and 24.4% in 2020.
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are also back after stellar first years in Jacksonville. Furthermore, Kirk and Jones demanded more targets than Engram last year, earning targets on 21.2% and 20.5% of their routes, respectively. Ridley can siphon targets from Kirk and Jones while also absorbing the targets vacated by Marvin Jones. Nevertheless, Engram will fall down the pecking order, too.
And while Jacksonville’s offense is a trendy pick to join the league’s elite scoring units, Engram didn’t have a huge role in the red zone last year. So, it’s not guaranteed he’ll find paydirt regularly to offset his slide in target share, even if Jacksonville’s offense explodes this year. As an inefficient ancillary option who doesn’t stand out in the red zone, Engram should be selected closer to the other fringe TE1 options after the 100th choice in fantasy drafts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.