Dynasty drafts are happening everywhere. Here is Thor’s look at the rookies at tight end.
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Thor Nystrom’s Dynasty Rookie TE Rankings
Here are my rankings, notes and player comps for rookie tight ends.
1. Dalton Kincaid | Bills | 6035/246 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Todd Heap
Kincaid’s ability to throttle up-and-down into-and-out-of route breaks consistently creates separation in the intermediate area. But you must be careful about crowding him too much within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage because Kincaid will deceive you into biting down so he can gallop past you down the seam. He’s also a natural after the catch, with good agility and toughness and a great sense of bodies around him in space. Kincaid is one of the very few tight ends who have entered the NFL in the past decade who could succeed on the outside in the NFL (Kincaid’s snap distribution last year was 55.1% in the slot, 9.5% wide, and 35.4% inline).
Dynasty Outlook: Kincaid will be a difference-maker as a rookie. Buffalo doesn’t have a target vacuum outside of Stefon Diggs – I believe Kincaid will be the Bills’ second-most targeted option in 2023. The easy TE1 of a loaded rookie tight-end class and a top-3 fantasy TE prospect of the past five years.
2. Sam LaPorta | Lions | 6033/245 | RAS: 9.02
Player comparison: Owen Daniels
LaPorta comes to you from the offensive environment of your nightmares. The Iowa Hawkeyes had seven passing touchdowns (total!) last year and finished No. 130 out of 131 FBS teams in yards per game. LaPorta was a one-man show, and defenses still couldn’t stop him. LaPorta converted 74 of 111 catches into first downs or touchdowns (66.7%) the past two seasons. LaPorta’s a skilled route runner who splits his defender down the middle, alters his tempo and footwork to cover his tracks, and snaps off sudden route breaks to leave flat-footed defenders in his wake. He’s also one of the premier YAC tight ends to enter the NFL in the past decade.
Dynasty Outlook: Buy the hype of LaPorta’s receiving utility – it’s for real. It’s not just that LaPorta is a tackle-breaking behemoth. He will factor in heavily from Day 1 – that’s the explicit plan. Jared Goff isn’t a sexy quarterback talent, but his penchant for shuttling balls off quickly in the intermediate area perfectly jives with Sammy Ballgame’s game. Goff will quickly learn to love the free passing yards LaPorta’s YAC machinations add to his ledger and feed him all the more often.
3. Michael Mayer | Raiders | 6044/249 | RAS: 7.57
Player comparison: Jason Witten
A former consensus five-star recruit, Mayer posted a 180-2099-18 receiving line over three years on campus. Mayer’s 12 missed-tackles-forced tied for No. 5 in this TE class last season. On the flip side, Mayer is not explosive, and he doesn’t create much separation. #MayerTruthers argue it doesn’t matter because he’s so good in contested situations. We’re about to find out if they’re right.
Dynasty Outlook: Mayer is an every-down tight end who’ll command targets in the passing game early. He only has Austin Hooper to contend with this year for playing time in Las Vegas. Jimmy Garoppolo‘s anemic arm will hone in on Mayer in the intermediate area.
4. Tucker Kraft | Packers | 6050/254 | RAS: 9.67
Player comparison: Dawson Knox
Kraft is a tremendous athlete who is about to make the jump from the FCS to the NFL. When he uncoils off the snap and punches the gas, Kraft reaches top speed quickly. He dominated in the FCS on physical gifts alone. The question this spring became: What happens when Kraft plays against analogous athletes?
Dynasty Outlook: Kraft was a soul stomper in the FCS. The massive jump in competition is going to require an adjustment period as he works on his routes, which he won mostly on athleticism at the sub-division level. Take a flier on Kraft in your dynasty draft by popping him a bit above his “consensus” ranking – it doesn’t speak to his actual upside.
5. Luke Musgrave | Packers | 6054/255 | RAS: 9.77
Player comparison: Cole Kmet
The nephew of former NFL QB Bill Musgrave, Musgrave was a multi-sport athlete in high school – a ski champion who was also on the track and lacrosse teams. Musgrave’s 20.05 mph max speed was the fastest the Senior Bowl has tracked at the TE position in the five years it’s compiled that data. Musgrave then posted a 97th-percentile RAS during the pre-draft process. While the developmental ball of clay is enticing, we saw very little of Musgrave on the field over five years on campus, with only 13 starts and 47 catches.
Dynasty Outlook: The Packers’ front office is making a leap of faith. The thing you can say for them, I guess, is that the Packers have utilized this archetype of a player well in the past (Robert Tonyan). We’ll see if Jordan Loves acquits himself as well in that regard as Aaron Rodgers did – Musgrave’s managers may well ultimately depend on that. I’d let another owner roll the dice on him.
6. Luke Schoonmaker | Cowboys | 6050/249 | RAS: 9.85
Player comparison: Dalton Schultz
Schoonmaker is a true inline tight end. He comes from a tight-end factory, and he gives supreme effort as a blocker. He surprised during pre-draft testing by posting a 98th-percentile size-adjusted athletic composite. You only sporadically saw that athleticism poke out its head when he was running routes at Michigan. In addition, he has a poor feel for timing along his route path, and Schoonmaker’s ball skills are wildly inconsistent.
Dynasty Outlook: Schoonmaker is a collection of disparate parts that have never coalesced as a receiver. And he’ll be 25 in September. The opportunity is ideal. But I’m not going hog-wild on the rest. Long-term TE2 projection for me.
7. Zack Kuntz | Jets | 6073/255 | RAS: 10
Player comparison: Mike Gesicki
During the pre-draft process, Kuntz posted a perfect “10” RAS score – i.e., the best size-adjusted TE athlete ever to enter the NFL. He’s a towering presence with an enormous catch radius who can get down the seam in a hurry. And I love his aggressiveness in attacking the ball in the air downfield. Kuntz varies his tempo and footwork and cuts clean corners when snapping off a route. He accelerates quickly out of those cuts, becoming a flashing neon light to the quarterback once the separation begins.
Dynasty Outlook: Musgrave and Kuntz’s profiles weren’t too dissimilar – Kuntz was the higher-ranked recruit, tested better, and had better stats, but who’s counting? – but Kuntz’s uncle didn’t play in the NFL, so he wasn’t afforded the same benefits of the doubts that Musgrave got. Kuntz suffered a season-ending injury early in 2022 after a late collegiate breakout (in Kuntz’s case, he started his career behind Pat Freiermuth at Penn State before transferring to Old Dominion). Kuntz is absolutely worth a stash in deep dynasty leagues with taxi spots.
8. Cameron Latu | 49ers | 6042/248 | RAS: 6.27
Player comparison: Kaden Smith
Latu is an average athlete (4.78 forty), and he’s on the smaller side. His lack of muscle means he’s never going to be an upper-echelon inline NFL blocker, and his lack of elite athleticism caps his receiving upside. Luckily, he’s a very good route-runner who surprises after the catch not because of world-class speed but because of vision, understanding of angles, and toughness. Latu’s leaked S2 score of 98 matched Bryce Young‘s more-celebrated showing.
Dynasty Outlook: The 49ers’ TE2 last year, Tyler Kroft, was only a blocker. Latu was drafted to give the 49ers more options in the passing game. When Latu proves he’s capable, San Fran will be able to move George Kittle around the formation to their heart’s desire. The opportunity is there for Latu to surprise if he can show something – just keep in mind his limitations.
9. Darnell Washington | Steelers | 6065/264 | RAS: 9.88
Player comparison: Martellus Bennett
Washington’s 81.3 PFF run block grade last year was elite for a TE prospect. Washington never graded below 72.4 in any season on campus – several TE prospects in this class never earned a 72.4 run block grade during any collegiate season. He’s a third OT on the field at all times. Unfortunately, he’s a mediocre receiver. Over his career, Washington only had three catches 20+ yards downfield and only forced 14 missed tackles. That latter number is less than Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta each individually had last season alone.
Dynasty Outlook: Washington’s issues as a receiver were no secret to the NFL. Because of that and his medicals, the Steelers got something of a freeroll on Washington’s blocking ability. Don’t pick him in your draft unless he freefalls even deeper than he did in the NFL Draft.
10. Brenton Strange | Jaguars | 6036/253 | RAS: 8.94
Player comparison: Jonnu Smith
Strange is a moveable piece with a versatile game. He’s a strong blocker but a raw route-runner that Penn State never seemed to have much interest in seriously getting involved in the passing game. He has strong hands, but Strange’s lack of size and length shrink his catch radius. That makes it all the more important that Jacksonville’s staff immediately get to work on polishing off his route-running, the rawest element of Strange’s game.
Dynasty Outlook: It was very surprising to see Strange selected in the second round. It’s entirely possible that he has untapped receiving potential – but that’ll all be dependent on whether the Jaguars can turn him into a route-running technician. Strange is a flier pick in tight-end premium dynasty formats – no more.
11. Elijah Higgins | Dolphins | 6030/235 | RAS: 8.95
Player comparison: DeAndre Smelter
At the Senior Bowl, on the last day of practices, Higgins was moved from the receiver room to the tight end group in what felt less like a choice and more like a mercy-killing of his NFL receiving dreams. The Dolphins see him with clear eyes – and that’s a good thing. Higgins is lumbering and stiff for a perimeter WR, but he moves just fine for a TE. Higgins isn’t big or strong enough to try inline TE anytime soon. And he has things to work on during his initial days as an NFL big-slot. Higgins’ ball skills and downfield body usage are mediocre at present. And his sluggish acceleration out of cuts will invite NFL athletes to catch points until his footwork gets more efficient or his routes become more precise.
Dynasty Outlook: All the above said, Higgins is an intriguing athlete at his size who drew some (perhaps overly-optimistic) comps to Chase Claypool during the process. In deeper dynasty leagues with taxi spots, he’s worth the lottery ticket sometime after the top-10 TE above are off the board.
12. Josh Whyle | Titans | 6064/260 | RAS: 8.89
Player comparison: Coby Fleener
Whyle had 88 career receptions but was never a featured component of the passing offense. During the 10-game 2020 COVID season, he posted a 90.9 PFF grade, including an elite 92.9 receiving grade. Whyle snagged a superb 82.4% of his 34 targets and cashed them in for a six TD. The odd thing is he’s never approached those heights since. He’s always been a solid blocker, though that aspect of his game may play down at the next level because he’s a sky-scraper, not a dump truck.
Dynasty Outlook: The upshot to ask yourself about Whyle long-term is this: Is he athletic enough to win as a 6-foot-7 big slot in the NFL? Or is he strong enough to trust as a sub-250-pound inline TE in the NFL? If the answer to both questions is “no,” he’s a Quad-A tweener.
13. Will Mallory | Colts | 6045/239 | RAS: 9.05
Player comparison: Michael Egnew
Mallory is a good athlete who will deceive you into thinking he has fantasy potential. He’s a receiving-only tight end who struggles to catch the ball downfield or with a defender anywhere in his vicinity. Over five years on campus, Mallory played a whopping 2,555 snaps. He caught 115 balls. He was targeted 9+ yards downfield 63 times, and he came down with only 31, dropping five. Mallory struggles in traffic, going 13-for-34 (38.2%) in career-contested opportunities. And Mallory is one of the class’ worst blockers, bar none.
Dynasty Outlook: No thanks.
14. Payne Durham | Bucs | 6050/258 | RAS: 6.46
Player comparison: Gavin Escobar
15. Davis Allen | Rams | 6054/246 | RAS: 7.85
Player comparison: Cole Turner
16. Brayden Willis | 49ers | 6036/239 | RAS: 4.61
Player comparison: Josiah Deguara
17. Blake Whiteheart | Cardinals | 6037/249 | RAS: 8
Player comparison: Chris Herndon
18. Leonard Taylor | Jaguars | 6046/250 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Richard Rodgers
19. Noah Gindorff | Seahawks | 6055/263 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Quinn Sypniewski
20. Travis Vokolek | Ravens | 6060/259 | RAS: 7.95
Player comparison: Ko Kieft
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