As offseason programs ramp up across the NFL, most teams are formed to the point that we can expect to hit the field on Week 1.
From here, the only roster changes we may see are injuries and when preseason cuts happen.
However, preseason cuts shouldn’t impact the top of the running back depth chart, so here, we’ll look at the top three running back units in terms of strength of schedule (SOS) heading into the season. For this, we’ll be using our strength of schedule tool.
Let’s check it out.
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Strength of Schedule: Running Backs (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are our strength of schedule rankings for running backs. We start with Detroit with the easiest strength of schedule (best) and wrap up with the Eagles who have the most difficult strength of schedule for running backs (worst).
What is fantasy Strength of Schedule?
Each team’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) displays the relative ease or difficulty of their matchups for the season. SOS is based on each opponent’s Fantasy Points Allowed to a position, adjusted for strength of schedule. Favorable matchups receive better matchup star ratings. You can learn more about the methodology here.
Detroit Lions
Depth Chart: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Mohamed Ibrahim
After drafting Gibbs in the top 15 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Lions shipped oft-injured running back D’Andre Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles.
This trade and the draft choice clearly indicate that Gibbs is the man in Detroit moving forward.
Gibbs is not only a blazing-fast runner, but he caught 103 passes in 31 games with the Alabama Crimson Tide in college.
Over the season’s first few weeks, he’ll match up with the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, and Green Bay Packers.
Of those teams, all but the Chiefs ranked inside the bottom seven in rushing yards allowed per game.
Montgomery will be mixed in, but Gibbs is the man moving forward. He’s currently drafted as the RB15, behind the likes of guys like Breece Hall (coming off of an injury), Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots inevitable running back trickery) and Najee Harris (struggled last season).
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Gibbs finish in this range or higher by the end of the season.
Chicago Bears
Depth Chart: Khalil Herbert, D’Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson
It’s somewhat of a bummer to see the Bears up this high. Despite the running back depth, we all know that quarterback Justin Fields will eat up a sizable amount of the rushing production, but there’s still value here.
Here’s where each player’s average draft position (ADP) is right now:
- Herbert: RB35
- Foreman: RB43
- Johnson: RB53
They’re somewhat clustered in the low-end RB3/RB4 range and for good reason. Seeing the young and healthy 6-foot, 219-pound Johnson emerges wouldn’t be surprising.
Playing behind No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson at Texas, Johnson averaged 5.6 yards per carry through four seasons, including a personal best of 6.0 last year with 554 rushing yards.
In these ranges, there’s value to be had still, especially if you’re looking to fill out your bench with upside plays like Johnson.
Minnesota Vikings
Depth Chart: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, DeWayne McBride
Interestingly enough, the top three teams in terms of running back strength of schedule come from the NFC North.
However, of the three, so much could happen between now and the start of the season.
There’s been rumbling all offseason about the Vikings moving on from Cook, but they have yet to do it. Instead, they signed Mattison to a contract worth about $6.35 million over the next two years and drafted McBride out of UAB.
It’s hard to gauge this situation until we reach a resolution with Cook.
Even if he stays on the team, they could use him less than expected to not risk injury in hopes of a deal before the trade deadline.
Cook is currently going as the RB16. This draft status reflects the uncertainty surrounding him. Meanwhile, Mattison is going as the RB33 and McBride as the RB71.
Good thing a majority of drafts aren’t happening just yet. That said, the value of McBride is intriguing. While Mattison has been viewed as this awesome handcuff running back option, he has just 11 touchdowns through 59 games. To be fair, he only had one game last season with double-digit carries (10), and in that game, had had 54 rushing yards and two scores.
Ultimately, we need to see what’s happening with Cook.
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