The NFL offseason is winding down, and while DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook are free agents, most rosters are formed and getting ready for the 2023-24 season.
Below, we’ll use our strength of schedule tool to explore the top-three teams to gauge whether the opportunity with a cushy schedule will result in fantasy output. Here’s a look at our previous article on running back strength of schedule.
Note: While we’re talking about the top three teams, there are eight teams that all have “4-star” ratings.
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Strength of Schedule: Running Backs (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are our strength of schedule rankings for running backs. We start with Jacksonville with the easiest strength of schedule (best) and wrap up with Buffalo who has the most difficult strength of schedule for running backs (worst).
What is fantasy Strength of Schedule?
Each team’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) displays the relative ease or difficulty of their matchups for the season. SOS is based on each opponent’s Fantasy Points Allowed to a position, adjusted for strength of schedule. Favorable matchups receive better matchup star ratings. You can learn more about the methodology here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Depth Chart: Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones
The Jaguars finished last season with a record of 9-8, made the postseason and won a playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers. A big part of their success was the passing game led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence who had over 4,100 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones benefitted from this, with Kirk finishing with a line of 133 targets, 84 receptions, 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns, and Jones adding 121 targets, 82 receptions, 823 yards and five scores.
In November, the Jaguars swung a trade for Calvin Ridley, a player at the time of the trade who was suspended for betting on games.
The Jaguars added additional skill position talent in the NFL Draft, but not at the wide receiver position. The first round included offensive tackle Anton Harrison, who will look to fill in while Cam Robinson is suspended.
The offensive line will be critical to Lawrence’s success once again. However, with this tandem and based on how often Jones and Kirk were used last season, we could see the targets spread in a way where the value is somewhat limited.
Ridley is getting drafted as the WR16, Kirk at WR25 and Jones at WR55. It’s safe to assume that Ridley will command some targets based on his success with the Falcons, but he also didn’t play football last season.
On top of this trio, the Jaguars have tight end Evan Engram, who will demand targets. This move for Ridley and this depth at the receiver spots will likely benefit Lawrence more than the pass-catchers.
New Orleans Saints
Depth Chart: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed
The Saints are turning over a new leaf at the quarterback position with Derek Carr coming in. The team will no longer sport Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston, but it remains to be seen how much of an upgrade Carr will be over Dalton.
Carr threw for 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 15 games last season. In contrast, Dalton threw for 2,871 yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 14 games.
The team brought Michael Thomas back on a one-year, $10-million deal, but he appeared in just three games last season. While he was productive in those games, those injury stints do make it hard to trust the one-time ultra-productive receiver.
The team will look to Chris Olave even more in his second season. He had over 1,000 receiving yards last season on 72 catches and 114 targets but only had four touchdowns. In his second season with a more pass-happy quarterback under center, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to assume Olave will double his touchdown number.
Between Weeks 1 through 17, Olave was the WR25. If you double his touchdowns and add 28 points to his total (six points per touchdown and one point per catch), he would have finished with 211.2 points, which would have been good enough for WR20.
His current ADP is WR13. He could live up to this price, given the upgrade at quarterback, it being his second year in the league and having one of the better schedules for receivers this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Depth Chart: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage
None of the receivers listed above are getting drafted above WR28 (Chris Godwin), and the primary reason is the quarterback situation, with Baker Mayfield being the presumptive starter.
Some may view Mayfield’s performances with the Rams in a favorable light. Still, in five games for the team, he threw for more than 200 yards just two times, had one multi-touchdown game and had five turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
The Buccaneers offensive line will play a huge role in keeping Mayfield upright. Still, it’s hard to view any of these players in a favorable light right now. However, Evans is being drafted as a WR3, which warrants a draft selection based on his talent alone.
With a quarterback like Mayfield, chances are only one player on the depth chart will have value. Evans might be the best player to target when you consider the ADP.
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