As we approach the end of June, players like DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook are still free agents in the NFL, but we’re less than three months away from the kickoff of the regular season.
Now is as good a time as any to prepare for fantasy drafts, and understanding what positions are headed for a more favorable schedule could influence draft decisions.
Below, we’ll look at the top three teams per our strength of schedule metrics and see if we can find any value to go along with the projected cushy schedule.
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New Strength of Schedule: TEs (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are our strength of schedule rankings for tight ends. We start with the Raiders with the easiest strength of schedule (best) and wrap up with the Giants who have the most difficult strength of schedule for running backs (worst).
What is fantasy Strength of Schedule?
Each team’s Strength of Schedule (SOS) displays the relative ease or difficulty of their matchups for the season. SOS is based on each opponent’s Fantasy Points Allowed to a position, adjusted for strength of schedule. Favorable matchups receive better matchup star ratings. You can learn more about the methodology here.
Las Vegas Raiders
Depth Chart: Michael Mayer, Austin Hooper
While it was a matter of time, the Raiders officially signed second-round rookie Michael Mayer to his rookie deal.
The Raiders also signed tight end Austin Hooper to a one-year, $2.75 million deal.
Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed of The Athletic seem more optimistic than not that Jimmy Garoppolo will be ready for the regular season. However, he hasn’t played since December, had surgery in March, and his offseason availability appears to be limited, if any at all.
Both tight ends here are new to the team, so the lack of reps could prove problematic.
Of the tight ends in the 2023 NFL Draft, Mayer projects as one of the more NFL-ready. He’s not the fastest tight end off the board, but he can get open and should be a steady option for years.
However, it’s not looking great for his 2023 fantasy value with these circumstances and being a rookie. The tight end position is notorious for being a slower starting position coming from college and into the NFL.
As for Hooper, you can get him off the waiver wire whenever, as he’s the TE47. He’s not worth draft capital.
New Orleans Saints
Depth Chart: Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill
We just discussed the Raiders, and for this season, the former Raiders quarterback, Derek Carr, will be under center for the Saints.
The second player on the tight end depth chart is Taysom Hill, who has a role far from a traditional tight end.
Hill finished as the TE8 last season from Weeks 1 to 17. However, if you look at his game logs, he was wildly unreliable other than the last three weeks.
Here are his week-by-week finishes in 2022-23 in point-per-reception (PPR) formats:
- Week 1: 15.3
- Week 2: 1.4
- Week 3: N/A
- Week 4: 8.1
- Week 5: 34.1
- Week 6: 4.5
- Week 7: 10.1
- Week 8: 8.1
- Week 9: 1.1
- Week 10: 0.1
- Week 11: 7.6
- Week 12: 3
- Week 13: 13.3
- Week 14: Bye week
- Week 15: 10.2
- Week 16: 11.6
- Week 17: 13.6
The tight-end position in fantasy football is a wasteland for the most part, though.
Looking across Weeks 1 to 18, look at the top five finishes:
- Travis Kelce: 316.3
- T.J. Hockenson: 215.4
- George Kittle: 200.5
- Mark Andrews: 190.5
- Evan Engram: 176.9
We point this out because you will struggle for production if you get one of the top guys. So, while Hill was TE8, that’s not equivalent to that of the QB8, RB8 or WR8 by any means.
Johnson profiles as the pass-catching tight end of the two, and he’ll compete with Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, Bryan Edwards, Rashid Shaheed, A.T. Perry and Alvin Kamara for targets.
Last season, Johnson had 61 targets, which ranked 20th at the position per Pro Football Focus. However, he had seven touchdowns, tied for fourth at the position.
When Johnson is on the field, he’s only blocking 5.4% of the time, so you can almost always expect him to run a route when he’s out there.
Despite the high touchdown numbers, Johnson finished as the TE15 from Weeks 1 to 18 but had a cluster of double-digit point games, including four of five games from Week 7 to 11.
Carr should result in an uptick in passing production, at least yardage-wise, which could help Johnson finish in the TE1 territory. However, as we mentioned above, TE12 is still not massively valuable.
Johnson is the perfect tight end to draft in the last round or two if you miss out on the top guys and want to punt the position.
Green Bay Packers
Depth Chart: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft
The Packers head into the 2023-24 season with two rookie tight ends and a quarterback in his first year starting.
Musgrave is an excellent pass-catching tight end, but his average draft position (ADP) is TE30, and Kraft is at TE45.
The TE45 spot is below Rob Gronkowski, who’s retired.
On paper, Musgrave should be a top target for the Packers this season with his 4.61 40-yard dash speed and 6-foot-6 frame, but with Love under center, we could see a more run-focused offense while trying to get the ball to wide receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and more.
Musgrave is worth a late-round draft selection, waiting a week or two to see how often he’s used –not necessarily how many points he scores — and deciding what to do.
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