The 2023 season saw breakout performances by rookie running backs Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce, with backs like Brian Robinson and Isiah Pacheco taking on lead back roles as well. And while there is certainly drama around the roles those lead backs will have in 2023, what other second-year running backs could see an increase in production and play time?
Second-Year Running Backs (2023 Fantasy Football)
Let’s check the fantasy football outlook for several second-year running backs.
Rachaad White is the obvious candidate to make a significant leap in production. White escaped the draft unscathed, and his competition consists of Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Patrick Laird, Ronnie Brown and Sean Tucker. However, RB1 doesn’t necessarily mean a top-12 back for White. There are still hurdles to overcome. The Bucs were the worst rushing offense in 2022, with just 1,308 yards and a 3.4 average yards per carry.
But White’s receiving upside makes him a viable low-end RB1 candidate. Over the final seven games of the season, White averaged 4.7 receptions per game — a 17-game pace of 80 receptions. While dump-offs should decrease with Tom Brady out of the picture, White is a lock to outperform his 2022 production and good value, with his current average draft position (ADP) sitting above the sixth round.
The Buffalo backfield will continue to operate as a committee, and James Cook’s size makes it difficult for him to assume a three-down back role. But it’s tough to deny his overall effectiveness in 2022 and the upside that he offers fantasy managers in 2023. Cook’s sample size was limited, and he saw double-digit carries in only four games, occasionally boosted by garbage time.
But in that limited sample size, Cook averaged 5.77 yards per carry (YPC). While he’s certainly not a power back, he’s still very effective on the ground and brings big-play capability along with receiving upside. Cook’s ADP will likely stay in the RB3 range, making him an interesting value pick for drafters with hero and zero-RB strategies.
Jerome Ford will see a significant rise in ADP over the next month, with the Browns moving on from Kareem Hunt. There’s not much to analyze with his 2022 statistics. Ford played in two games with a total of eight carries for 12 yards, averaging 1.5 YPC. But Ford’s college production during his final year at Cincinnati was impressive.
Ford had 1,319 yards with 19 rushing touchdowns averaging 6.1 YPC. He had 19 receptions on 21 targets for 220 yards, so while he doesn’t have a significant receiving profile, he has capable hands. Because he profiles more as an early down back, he’ll need to earn Cleveland’s trust for third-down work. If he earns that trust, Ford will be a strong handcuff with potential standalone value.
Fantasy managers are entering new territory with the Patriots backfield – a clear three-down back. Rhamondre Stevenson will lead a Patriots backfield that has traditionally operated as a committee. Stevenson should see the bulk of the workload, and the Patriots likely won’t take a run-heavy approach, playing in what should be one of the toughest divisions of 2023.
But another Patriot back could see valuable work this year, and Pierre Strong is the likely candidate. James Robinson struggled to make an impact in 2022, and Kevin Harris saw limited action. But Strong’s receiving upside offers a path to relevancy. If Strong can pass Ty Montgomery, the fourth-round draft pick could see some third-down work and hold potential value.
The Vikings are in an openly difficult situation with Dalvin Cook. If they move on from Cook, Alexander Mattison is the heir apparent. But do not discount the impact that a secondary option could have in the Vikings’ offense. Mattison is a three-down back, but Chandler offers a more explosive skillset that could play well off Mattison’s more traditional style.
Chandler’s rookie year was non-existent. He suffered a broken thumb early and didn’t see action until Week 18, with just six carries. But his 2022 preseason was promising, and Chandler could earn a weekly role if Cook is no longer a Viking. Even if Cook remains on the Vikings, a midseason trade is still a possibility.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Allgeier — it might seem counterintuitive to target a second-year player whose replacement was drafted months after he earned a starting role, but don’t discount the impact that Tyler Allgeier could have in 2023. The Falcons led the league in rushing attempts last year with 559 attempts.
Even if Bijan Robinson sees 300 carries and Desmond Ridder is utilized on the ground as well, Allgeier could still see 150-200 attempts, a potential 10-12 carries per game. Allgeier averaged 4.9 YPC in 2022. Allgeier is a high-end handcuff that should be rostered in all formats.
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