Safest Draft Pick on Each NFL Team (2023 Fantasy Football)

NFC East

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)

Despite losing Dak Prescott during the start of the season, CeeDee Lamb tied for the 3rd-most games (7) with a WR1 weekly finish. – Erickson

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)

Talent and volume are the two centerpieces for ceiling and floor in fantasy. Saquon Barkley was the RB5 in fantasy points per game last season while ranking third in the NFL in touches behind only Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. Assuming he does sign his contract and plays this year, Barkley should threaten this type of workload in 2023. – DBro

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)

Jalen Hurts combination of passing excellence and rushing upside makes him matchup-proof. If defenses attempt to key in on one area, he has the talent to torch them in the other realm. Hurts was the QB1 in fantasy points per game last season and could easily repeat that feat this year. – DBro

Terry McLaurin (WR – WSH)

Terry McLaurin has rolled up more than 1,000 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons, and he’s had no fewer than 77 receptions in each of those campaigns. He’s an easy choice on a team with few sure things on the offensive side of the ball. – Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

NFC North

D.J. Moore (WR – CHI)

D.J. Moore rattled off three straight 1,000-yard seasons for the Panthers from 2019 to 2021, and he would have had a fourth last season if QB Baker Mayfield hadn’t destroyed Moore’s productivity in the seven games they played together last season. (Moore averaged 35 receiving yards over the seven games Mayfield played for the Panthers before they released him.) Expect Moore to quickly establish himself as Justin Fields‘ go-to receiver in Chicago. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)

Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of only 13 wide receivers to play at least eight games last year and record a weekly bust percentage below 14%. His status as a target hog is integral. Last year St. Brown was 11th in target share and eighth in raw target volume. With Jameson Williams sidelined for a chunk of the season, those numbers could easily increase in this upcoming season. – DBro

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)

Aaron Jones just finds a way to get it done. Despite constantly splitting touches with A.J. Dillon, Jones posts RB1 production. He has finished the last four seasons no worse than RB12. – Erickson

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)

It’s Justin Jefferson. He’s arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, who successfully pulled off his best Cooper Kupp impersonation last year. I don’t know what else to tell you. – DBro

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

NFC South

Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)

The marriage of Bijan Robinson and Arthur Smith feels like it was written in the stars. A coach obsessed with running the ball as much as possible now has one of the best running back prospects in recent memory to feed Derrick Henry-level volume to. With Robinson’s receiving skills also insulating him weekly, he’ll easily be impervious to tough defensive matchups weekly. A locked-in RB1, always. – DBro

Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)

The Panthers will have rookie Bryce Young at quarterback this season, and they don’t have any sure things at wide receiver or tight end. That leaves new arrival Miles Sanders, who ran for a career-high 1,269 yards in Philadelphia last season and has averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his career. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Chris Olave (WR – NO)

Olave’s 7% bust rate in 2022 ranked 5th-lowest among WRs with at least 12 games played. – Erickson

Chris Godwin (WR – TB)

Only Tyreek Hill posted at least WR4 numbers or better at a higher rate than Chris Godwin did in 2022 (93%). – Erickson

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

NFC West

James Conner (RB – ARI)

James Conner was just one of four RBs – CMC, Ekeler, Chubb – to play in at least 13 games and not post a single “bust” performance last season. He is the epitome of “volume is king” at the running back position. – Erickson

Cooper Kupper (WR – LAR)

Cooper Kupp is a slam-dunk choice here. One of the most prolific target hogs in the NFL, Kupp has averaged 11.1 targets, 8.5 receptions and 106.1 receiving yards per game over the last two seasons. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Injuries withstanding, nobody can match the floor McCaffrey offers when he is on the field. He finished with highest ranked top-24 finisher rate (88%, 14 games) last season, despite playing for two different teams. – Erickson

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)

The arrival of rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba makes veteran WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett riskier fantasy bets than usual. Still, Lockett has been a paragon of stability in recent years. He’s topped the 1,000-yard mark in each of his last four seasons, and he’s scored eight or more touchdowns in each of his last five seasons. Smith-Njigba may cut into Lockett’s target total, but JSN isn;t likely to marginalize the rock-steady Lockett. – Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

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