With the redraft season beginning, we must research each player’s information and analyze their average draft position (ADP) to determine if they are worthy of their position within our overall board. One of the more significant problems that fantasy football managers have when drafting is overvaluing rookies. Especially when drafting far out from the season with the NFL draft close in the rearview mirror, it’s the “Shiny New Toy” fallacy. This is when someone receives a new item and automatically gives it more value than an older item. As future 2023 fantasy football champions, we must recognize the players who can sink our dreams. This article will identify four players who fit into the “Shiny New Toy” fallacy and help you to steer clear of them at their ADP.
All ADPs are from PPR Scoring systems
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Early Overvalued Rookies (2023 Fantasy Football)
Here are some rookies that are being overvalued early in the fantasy football draft season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA) | ADP 65
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is exceptionally talented as a wide receiver. However, his landing spot can damper his value for 2023. He will begin the season starting alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and the pair will likely edge him out of any two wide receiver sets. If this is the case, drafting JSN at 65th overall is ludicrous and can sink your ship before the season starts. With the Seattle Seahawks being a run-first team and Pete Carroll asking Geno Smith to do “just enough” to win games, a heavy workload for JSN could be wishful thinking. Also at a similar ADP as Smith-Njigba are players such as Trevor Lawrence, Kyle Pitts, and Treylon Burks, all of whom sit as their respective teams’ QB1, TE1, and WR1.
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL) | ADP 91
Something new we can say about the Baltimore Ravens in 2023 is that their wide receiver room is now crowded with talent. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor in free agency, Rashod Bateman is returning from injury, and they drafted Zay Flowers. Please make no mistake about it; Zay Flowers is a talented wide receiver who can be used as a moveable weapon within this new offense to create separation and big plays. The issue with Flowers is the crowded room. The Ravens’ offense is also full of pass-catching options in their tight-end room, with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. We also have a solid running game in J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Lamar Jackson. All of this will chip away at a high target share for Zay Flowers.
With Todd Monken’s new offensive scheme and his tendency to lean towards a neutral pass script, the Ravens should pass more this year. However, Flowers will need Lady Luck to shine on him as he develops, setting up his routes correctly to outplay the WR4 role that is currently reflected in his ADP. Is Zay Flowers talented and worth a dart throw? Yes, just not with an ADP of 91 when I can draft Anthony Richardson, James Cook, AJ Dillon, or Antonio Gibson within that same range.
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