Drafting a fantasy team can be a complicated tactical undertaking, but underneath the layers of strategy, there are two primary objectives:
- Draft high-achievers
- Avoid underachievers
I’ve always found the second objective easier than the first. It can be tricky to identify players on the verge of a breakout or a level jump. Red flags stand out. Hidden gems are tougher to spot.
But avoiding underachievers is critical to your success. If you can dodge the land mines and snare traps, removing them from your pool of draftable players, you’ll improve your chances of drafting a high-achieving player with each of your picks.
Here are 10 players I’m avoiding in my 2023 fantasy drafts.
Fitz’s Players to Avoid in Redraft Leagues (2023 Fantasy Football)
He’s still a good quarterback, but Rodgers’ days of being a good fantasy quarterback are probably over.
Rodgers doesn’t run much anymore. He’s capable of being an efficient passer, but he’s unlikely to be a prolific passer; the Jets don’t need him to be one. Head coach Robert Saleh’s defense was one of the best in the league last year and should be again, which means Rodgers probably isn’t going to be involved in many shootouts this year. He’ll be more of a game manager than gunslinger.
The Jets’ new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was the Packers’ OC for three seasons, from 2019 to 2021. During those three years, the Packers ranked 28th, 32nd and 32nd in offensive pace.
Rodgers is an adequate fantasy backup, but if you’re in a position where you have to start him week after week, you’re going to get consistently trucked at the position by teams with elite QBs.
Walker had a nice rookie season, but let’s face it: The Seahawks’ drafting of Zach Charbonnet was a kick in the teeth for Walker enthusiasts.
Walker was a second-round draft pick. Charbonnet is a slightly later second-round pick. Walker probably had the slightly better prospect profile coming into the NFL, but Charbonnet has more pass-catching experience.
We can’t be sure about how the Seahawks will divide work between these two RBs, but we do know that Pete Carroll presides over a meritocracy in Seattle. The Seahawks spent a first-round draft pick on RB Rashaad Penny in 2018, but Penny was relegated to backup duty behind seventh-rounder Charis Carson because Carson was deemed to be better. The Seahawks signed QB Matt Flynn to a lucrative multi-year deal in 2012, but Flynn never started a game for Seattle because Carroll and his staff deemed third-round rookie Russell Wilson to be better.
What if Carroll and his assistants decide they like Charbonnet more than Walker or that they like the two RBs equally? Walker’s average draft position has fallen since the drafting of Charbonnet, but it may not have fallen far enough.
The Lions had three years to assess Swift and gave him a thumbs-down a la Joaquin Phoenix in “Gladiator.” They were so eager to replace Swift, in fact, that they spent the 12th pick of the NFL Draft on his replacement, Jahmyr Gibbs, even though running backs are rarely drafted in the top half of the first round these days.
The Lions traded Swift to the Eagles, which seems like a soft landing. But is it really? Yes, the Eagles have a terrific overall offense, a top offensive line, and they’re skewed toward the run. But several Eagles beat writers believe Rashaad Penny will be Philadelphia’s primary early-down back. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott are still around, too.
Much of Swift’s fantasy value during his time in Detroit was derived from his pass catching. Detroit RBs were targeted at the 11th-highest rate in the league last year, with Swift drawing 70 of the Lions’ 115 RB targets. Eagles RBs were targeted at the lowest rate in the league last season, drawing only 61 targets.
The knee injury Javonte sustained last October was a bad one. He tore his ACL and LCL, also damaging his posterior lateral corner. Multi-ligament knee tears typically require a longer recovery than isolated ACL tears, and when Javonte returns to regular-season action, he might not be his old self right away.
J.K. Dobbins tore his ACL and LCL in the 2021 preseason, along with his hamstring and meniscus. Dobbins didn’t return until Week 3 of the 2022 season, didn’t look like his old self in his first four games back, was shut down for another seven weeks, then finally looked normal when he returned in Week 14. It amounted to nearly a 16-month recovery.
It’s painful to fade a player as talented as Javonte, but it’s the prudent move. It’s encouraging news that he wasn’t placed on the PUP list at the start of training camp, but take that news with numerous grains of salt, a shot of tequila and a hit of lime.
It’s not as if Foreman has a lofty ADP, but it’s hard to see his path to fantasy relevance in 2023.
Foreman needs touch volume in order to pop. He got it at times last year in Carolina. After the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, Foreman fell into a boatload of early-down touches. He had five 100-yard rushing games, averaging 23.4 carries in those games.
Foreman isn’t going to see those types of touch counts in Chicago this year. He’ll be in a three-man RB committee with Khalil Herbert and rookie Roschon Johnson. It’s possible he gets a majority or a plurality of the early-down carries, but he’s not going to average anything close to 20 carries a game, and he’s unlikely to contribute much as a pass catcher — Foreman has 23 catches in 43 career games.
There are better ways to spend a late-round draft pick.
Adams spent his first eight years in the NFL catching passes from future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers. Then, Adams headed to Las Vegas to reunite with his old college teammate at Fresno State, Derek Carr. Now, Adams will probably have the worst QB situation of his career.
New Raider Jimmy Garoppolo is capable and efficient, but he doesn’t aggressively push the ball downfield. Carr averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, according to Pro Football Reference, the fourth-highest total in the league. Garoppolo averaged 6.9 intended air yards per pass attempt last year.
Adams is reportedly unhappy with the direction of the Raiders. I don’t know about you, but “disgruntled” is not among the qualities I seek in early-round fantasy picks.
Oh, and Adams is 30 now, so the age cliff is drawing closer.
Adams has been money in the bank for years, but it seems like a good year to let someone else draft him.
I don’t have much interest in drafting Deebo, who might not be the best wide receiver on his own team. From the time Christian McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7 through the end of the 2022 regular season, Brandon Aiyuk had a larger target share than Deebo and averaged 2.8 more PPR points per game.
Deebo has provided some rushing value in recent years, but it seems unlikely he’ll move the needle as a runner this year if McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell stay reasonably healthy. There’s no denying how dangerous Deebo is with the ball in his hands, but he’s not worth drafting at his 40th overall ADP.
Beware when the sales pitch for a player begins with, “Who else are they gonna throw to?” The alpha receiver for a lousy team isn’t automatically going to be a valuable fantasy asset simply because he’s the alpha.
Interest in “Hollywood” spiked when the Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins. It will be noted repeatedly this summer that Brown was the WR5 in PPR fantasy scoring through the first six weeks of the 2022 season while Hopkins was serving a performance-enhancing drug (PED) suspension. It should be noted, however, that only one of those six games came against a good pass defense. Give Hollywood credit for hanging an 8-78-1 stat line against an Eagles defense that ranked No. 1 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against the pass last season, according to Football Outsiders. But the other five teams Brown faced during that stretch ranked 17th, 20th, 24th, 27th and 31st in DVOA against the pass.
Brown has finished with fewer than 800 yards in three of his four seasons. His 1,008-yard campaign in 2021 was the only time he’s averaged better than 60 receiving yards per game over a season. Brown has averaged an uninspiring 7.2 yards per target and 1.67 yards per route run for his career.
It’s unclear when Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will be able to return to action after tearing his ACL in December. There’s little reason for the Cardinals to rush him back since they appear fully committed to a rebuild. While Murray is out, the Cardinals will be quarterbacked by journeyman Colt McCoy (who may have injury issues of his own) or rookie Clayton Tune.
Bad teams produce unstable assets. The Arizona Cardinals are going to be a five-alarm fire this season. Maybe we shouldn’t be so eager to run into the burning building.
I’m not fading Godwin just because he’ll go from having a walk-in Hall of Famer as his quarterback to having Baker Mayfield as his quarterback. But here’s the important aspect of the QB change.
Brady led the NFL in pass attempts the last two seasons with more than 700 in each of those years. That’s an average of more than 40 pass attempts per game over a two-year span. In 2020, Brady was second in the NFL in pass attempts. In 2019, Jameis Winson led the NFL in pass attempts when he was the Buccaneers’ quarterback. So, for the last four years, Godwin’s quarterback has either ranked first or second in the league in pass attempts.
Godwin has been getting a lot of targets, but his target share hasn’t been all that hefty because … well, because that Mike Evans guy is pretty good, too.
Also, it’s worth noting that Godwin’s average depth of target has been shrinking. Here are his aDOT numbers since 2019: 11.7, 10.4, 10.2, 7.3, 5.7.
Godwin’s average yardage per catch since 2018: 14.3, 15.5, 12.9, 11.3, 9.8
With the aDOT and YPC numbers trending down, Godwin is going to need heavy target volume to be a valuable fantasy asset, and with Brady gone, his chances of getting heavy target volume are greatly reduced, even with Buccaneers WR Russell Gage out for the season.
The Bills haven’t been especially forthcoming about how they plan to use their first-round draft pick. Will he displace incumbent Dawson Knox as the Bills’ primary tight end? Will the Bills play more two-TE sets and have Kincaid line up in the slot, partially displacing slot receivers Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty?
Role ambiguity alone might not be a good reason to fade Kincaid, but we know that rookie TEs historically haven’t been great bets for fantasy. Of the 25 tight ends taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2000, only four — Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Heath Miller and Jeremy Shockey — were fantasy TE1s as rookies.
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