Avoiding players who are being over-hyped heading into the season is paramount to being successful in your fantasy football leagues. That’s especially true in high-stakes leagues like those in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Here are two players going early in FFPC drafts that you should consider avoiding on your way to FFPC glory.
Over the course of the offseason you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
Avoiding players who are being over-hyped heading into the season is paramount to being successful in your fantasy football leagues. That’s especially true in high-stakes leagues like those in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Here are two players going early in FFPC drafts that you should consider avoiding on your way to FFPC glory.
Over the course of the offseason you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
Overvalued Players in FFPC (2023 Fantasy Football)
Davante Adams (WR – LV) | ADP 15
You can’t argue against Davante Adams being a dominant force in fantasy football. Over his last seven seasons, he’s had five top-12 point per reception (PPR) campaigns, and his worst season finish was the overall PPR WR23. In 2022 with the Las Vegas Raiders, he finished as the overall PPR WR3 with 100 catches resulting in 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns.
With QB Derek Carr at the helm last season, Adams’ average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.8 yards ranked ninth among qualifying WRs (minimum 100 targets), and his 15.2 yards per reception (YPR) ranked fifth. However, Carr was shipped off to New Orleans earlier this offseason, and the team acquired former 49ers and Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo to take over behind center. And while Carr was known to throw bombs down the field — he ranked fifth in QB aDOT (9.7 yards) among players with a minimum of 167 dropbacks — Garoppolo is not. His QB aDOT of 7.3 yards ranked 34th.
While it would be silly to fade Adams’ talent, there are some concerns. Garoppolo recently underwent foot surgery, and there are concerns he may not be ready to start the season. That would leave veteran backup Brian Hoyer at the helm of the Raiders’ offense. In addition, he is approaching the dreaded WR age cliff and will turn 31 near the end of the season.
I wouldn’t bet on him finishing outside the overall top 24 WRs in 2023. However, with a current average draft position (ADP) landing him just outside the first round as the WR9, Adams isn’t worth his capital and should be avoided in your FFPC drafts.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) | ADP 29
The 2022 season started out phenomenally for Jets RB Breece Hall. Before tearing his ACL early in Week 7 against the Broncos, Hall was the overall PPR RB5, averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game. He wasn’t just a talented rusher, either. Hall was targeted 31 times in the passing game, catching 19 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown. All this with a combination of Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson behind center.
The injury mid-way through a promising rookie season was a devastating blow to Hall and the Jets. There are reports that Hall has looked “fantastic” in his rehab, and the team is optimistic that Hall will be ready to go by the start of training camp at the end of July. It’s not surprising that Hall, who just turned 22 in May, has made a quick recovery, given his athleticism and youth. However, you can’t ignore that his injury was still severe, and while he may look great on an open field in solo drills, that’s not NFL football.
There have been few exceptions regarding a dip in production in the season after an ACL tear. Adrian Peterson is the most notable triumphant return, rushing for 2,097 yards in his first season post-injury. Outside of Peterson and retired RB Jamaal Charles, the typical return year for RBs sees a dip for more than 500 rushing yards. In addition, the usual rehabilitation time for an ACL tear is between eight and nine months, and Hall will be right at the nine-month mark when training camp fires up.
There are always exceptions to the rule. And there is a chance Hall is that Adrian Peterson-like exception. As I previously mentioned, Hall is young and a freak athlete. However, there is also a very good chance that Hall will lack the explosiveness and illusiveness we saw last season. As the old saying goes, no risk, no reward. But, in this case, the risk may outweigh the chance he can live up to his ADP as the RB11.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
