NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Monday (6/12)

We had Denver winning in five games at the beginning of the series, which looks like a strong possibility at this point. After splitting the first two home games, the Nuggets established their dominance and grabbed both games in Miami. That means they have three chances to capture their first championship in franchise history, and they’ll be a monster favorite to close this thing out here. These teams are simply mismatched, and it doesn’t feel like Miami has a chance to win three straight. If the Nuggets do grab the win here, this will be my final article of the season! I wanted to thank all of you for reading throughout the year, and I really hope I helped some of you make some dough! With that said, let’s dive into this Game 5!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

MIA at DEN (DEN -8.5) O/U: 209

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Victor Oladipo (knee) OUT
• Tyler Herro (hand) OUT

Core Plays

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $16,000 DraftKings, $19,000 FanDuel
If you’ve faded Jokic at any point in these playoffs, you lost money at least once. This guy is simply a free square in everyone’s lineup, averaging over 61 DraftKings points per game during the regular season. He’s been even better in the playoffs, scoring at least 69 DK points in 12 of his last 16 outings. The big man is averaging 32 points, 13.7 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks in that sensational stretch. Just squeeze in Joker and then figure things out from there.

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF- MIA): $11,800 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel
Butler hasn’t been as dominant as we saw earlier in these playoffs, but he will have to be if Miami is going to magically grab three more wins. The All-Star has at least 36 fantasy points in 25 of his last 26 games, averaging nearly 50 DK points per game in this postseason run. What makes him enticing is the fact that this is an elimination game. Over his last six elimination games, JB is posting a 59-point average. He might not come off the floor in such a critical game, and you can’t fade anyone who could play a full 48 minutes.

Cash Game Considerations

Jamal Murray (PG/SG – DEN): $12,000 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel
Murray has been one of the best players in this playoff run. The young guard is averaging 26.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.3 steals over the last two postseasons. He’s been better in this championship run, averaging over 50 fantasy points per game. His distributing is what’s really changed things for this Denver club, and as long as he’s playing 40 minutes, taking 15-20 shots, and dishing out double-digit assists, Murray is one of the best plays out there.

Bam Adebayo (C – MIA): $9,800 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel
Miami has chosen to run their offense through Bam in this series, and it’s easy to understand why. He has the best individual matchup of anyone on the floor because Jokic is not known for his defense. That’s allowed Bam to score at least 40 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight matchups with Denver. We saw this guy average 40 fantasy points per game during the regular season, and he’s another guy who could play a full 48 minutes. His rebounding and defense give him one of the highest floors on the slate, and he’s the safest option next to Joker.

GPP Targets

Michael Porter Jr.(SF/PF – DEN): $6,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
MPJ has not been able to shoot in this series, but he’s playing with some hustle. That’s something we haven’t seen from this guy in the past, but it makes him an intriguing GPP option. MPJ averaged 30 DK points per game during the regular season and would be a massive value if he reaches that total here. This man can knock down shots with anyone, and as long as he gets 30 minutes and double-digit shots, he’s one of the best GPP candidates with his monster upside.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – MIA): $5,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Teams love to lean on their veterans in big games, which was on full display in Game 4. Lowry played over Gabe Vincent for most of that defeat, finishing with 27 DK points across 33 minutes. We’ve seen Lowry score at least 21 fantasy points in seven of his last nine outings, but receiving 30 minutes in back-to-back games is what’s really encouraging. This former All-Star can go off in that sort of role, and he’s one of the most affordable players with that sort of ability.

Value Plays

Aaron Gordon (SF/PF – DEN): $7,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Gordon was a key piece in our Friday article, and he was the best player on the floor in Game 4. The defensive stud finished with 47 DraftKings points across 42 minutes of play. He’s quietly been going off for two weeks, scoring at least 27 fantasy points in five straight fixtures. He’s also flirting with a 35-point average in that span, which is impressive for such an affordable player. Denver needs him out there to guard Butler, which means he could play 45 minutes in this closeout game as well.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG/SF – DEN): $4,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Caldwell-Pope hasn’t been hitting his shots in this series, but he showed us what makes him so valuable in Game 4. The wing defender scored 26 DraftKings points across 36 minutes of action. That might not sound like much, but it’s all you can hope for from such a cheap player. We’ve seen KCP regularly play 30-35 minutes during the regular season, and he should remain in that sort of role with everything on the line. All you need is 20 DK points for Caldwell-Pope to be an immense value, but that’s been his floor for months at a time.

Advantageous Pricing

Jamal Murray (PG/SG – DEN): $12,000 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel

Michael Porter Jr.(SF/PF – DEN): $6,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel

Aaron Gordon (SF/PF – DEN): $7,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel

Bruce Brown (SG/SF – DEN): $5,200 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel

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