I had Denver winning in five at the beginning of the series, and a win here would make that prediction look pretty after a disappointing showing in Game 2. The Nuggets bounced back in Game 3, grabbing that impressive road victory. They went into Miami and grabbed a dominating win behind some stingy defense. It’s rare to see a team maul Miami at home, but that game was never really close in the fourth quarter. That means this is a must-win for Miami because falling down 3-1 to the home team is a recipe for disaster. With that in mind, let’s consider the odds for this critical matchup!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

DEN at MIA (DEN -3) O/U: 211

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Victor Oladipo (knee) OUT
• Tyler Herro (hand) OUT

Core Plays

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $15,600 DraftKings, $18,500 FanDuel
This guy is just silly. It doesn’t even make sense what Jokic is doing right now, scoring at least 69 DraftKings points in 12 of his last 15 games. Having a 69-point floor is genuinely absurd, with Jokic averaging 32.6 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game in that span. The two-time MVP is also flirting with a 70-point average in that span, and we’ve never seen a player like this in the history of the NBA. As long as Jokic is locked into 40 minutes, he needs to be the captain slot in everyone’s lineup!

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF- MIA): $12,200 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel
Butler has been the second-best player in this postseason run. Jimmy Buckets has at least 36 DK points in 23 of his last 24 games. The former All-Star is also averaging over 50 DraftKings points per game in this playoff run, doing everything in this offense with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo sidelined. We’ve also seen JB play his best basketball in elimination games, and that’s almost what this is. Over his last six elimination games, Butler is averaging nearly 60 DK points per game!

Cash Game Considerations

Jamal Murray (PG/SG – DEN): $11,600 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel
Not enough people are talking about Murray because Jokic is playing some ridiculous basketball. We shouldn’t overlook what this guy has done in his postseason career, averaging 26.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and 1.3 steals over the last two playoffs. He’s been even better this postseason, averaging nearly 50 DK points per game. Murray has also scored at least 41 fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 games and shouldn’t be faded in such vital matchups.

Bam Adebayo (C – MIA): $9,400 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel
Bam has the best matchup of anyone on Miami, and they want to exploit Jokic on defense. That’s allowed Adebayo to score at least 41 fantasy points in all three games of this series. He’s also scored at least 51 DraftKings points in two of the three games and at least 41 DK points in five of his last six matchups with Denver. It’s truly a delightful matchup for the All-Star, and as long as he’s playing 40 minutes and taking 20 shots, he’s the best cheaper option of all the stars on this single-game slate.

GPP Targets

Michael Porter Jr.(SF/PF – DEN): $7,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
MPJ has struggled in this series, but his price tag is getting to an intriguing point. We saw this guy average nearly 30 DK points per game in the regular season, which was actually south of his average in these playoffs before this series started. The Nuggets need MPJ’s presence out there because his long-distance shooting opens everything for this offense. All we need is MPJ to knock down a handful of threes to be an elite GPP option, and that’s who he’s been for the last two months outside of this series.

Max Strus (SG/SF – MIA): $4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Strus and Porter are really similar players. They’re both out there for their perimeter shooting and can be elite DFS options if they knock down their shots. That’s what we saw in Game 2, with Strus scoring 30 fantasy points. This guy should be locked into 30-35 minutes and double-digit shots, which is really all you can ask for from such an affordable player. He’s also had success against the Nuggets, posting a 26-point average against them in their last four matchups.

Value Plays

Aaron Gordon (SF/PF – DEN): $6,600 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Gordon hasn’t been great on the offensive end, but his elite defense makes him tough to fade in this price range. AG should be locked into 40 minutes to guard Butler, and that sort of role allowed him to post a 32-point average during the regular season. He’s also been much better recently, scoring at least 27 DraftKings points in four straight fixtures. That’s plenty from such a cheap player, mainly since he showcased a 43-point upside in the clinching game of the LA series.

Gabe Vincent (PG/SG – MIA): $6,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Vicent battled foul trouble in Game 3, but he should be ready to bounce back here. The starting point guard in Miami has taken over since Herro and Oladipo went down, scoring 33 DK points in each of the first two games of this series. Getting 33 fantasy points from a player in this price range is brilliant, and it seems likely to duplicate since GV has developed into Miami’s third-best player in this postseason run.

Advantageous Pricing

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF- MIA): $12,200 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel

Michael Porter Jr.(SF/PF – DEN): $7,000 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel

Max Strus (SG/SF – MIA): $4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel

Aaron Gordon (SF/PF – DEN): $6,600 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts