Check out a few of my must-have dynasty rookies that I’m targeting in rookie drafts and beyond. And you can find all of my must-have dynasty rookies in this article.
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- 2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Must-Have Dynasty Rookies
Here are the players I’m targeting in dynasty rookie drafts:
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
Zay Flowers is absolutely an outside wide receiver in the NFL. He played 65.8% of his collegiate snaps on the perimeter, which should push even higher than that at the next level. Flowers has route running chops for days to get open on the boundary. He sets up corners with nuanced routes, explosive speed, multiple release packages, and an advanced understanding of how to get open. Flowers can win at all three levels. He’s lightning quick off the line to win short and a route tactician with intermediate and deep routes. Flowers understands how to use leverage and his fluid hips to get open on comebacks and outs. Flowers has no issue stacking corners on deep routes. He has the speed to get past them, and the smarts squeeze every inch of separation out of every route. Flowers is a twitch machine after the catch. His start and stop ability after securing the football is highlight reel worthy like Kadarius Toney. He’s a high-motor, tenacious player. Flowers’ zest for the game shows up in his blocking ferocity and yearning to claw tooth and nail for every inch of grass.
Baltimore added Flowers to what has become a loaded receiving depth chart. Lamar Jackson will now have Odell Beckham Jr., Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews flanking him. Baltimore’s bevy of pass catcher talent will dim Flowers’ year-one target projection, but Beckham Jr. is only on a one-year deal. If Baltimore doesn’t pick up Bateman’s fifth-year option, he can be an unrestricted free agent after the 2024 season. Flowers could be Jackson’s long-term WR1. The narrative around this Baltimore passing attack also needs to change when projecting their play volume. Greg Roman is gone. Everything we have seen from this offense with Jackson left with him. Todd Monken will change things, and those changes could be massive. In three of Monken’s last four seasons as an offensive mastermind, he’s ranked inside the top 12 (eighth, 11th, fourth) in neutral script pace. Over that span, he was also top-five in passing attempts twice. Flowers is a top-five selection in 1QB formats and a top-ten pick in Superflex rookie drafts.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
Kincaid has special movement skills. He looks fluid through his routes with a quick snap at the top of his stem. Kincaid has excellent body control with above-the-rim skills. He is exceptional at high-pointing the ball, which will serve him well in the red zone in the NFL. Kincaid can win in line, in the slot, and on the perimeter. He has early and late separation skills that allow him to be flexed out to the boundary, even against man coverage. Last year Kincaid was 13th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets). He is a tackle-breaking steamroller in the open field. I’m not prone to comping rookie tight ends to future Hall of Famers, but Kincaid reminds me of Travis Kelce on film. His combination of route running, speed, and RAC ability evokes Kelce’s highlight reels in my head. He’s also a field-stretching weapon that can win vertically on the perimeter and down the seam. Kincaid was fifth in PFF deep receiving grade and 13th in deep yards per route run among tight ends last year (minimum five deep targets). The biggest area of improvement for Kincaid is in the blocking department. He is religiously turned into a pretzel in pass protection. His after-the-catch nastiness displays the necessary play strength for Kincaid to grow as a blocker. His first punch is decent, but pass rushers have no issues standing him up and blowing him off his mark. Improvements in technique in the NFL can allow him to become a serviceable blocker, at least.
This sounds hyperbolic, but the Buffalo Bills gave Josh Allen his Travis Kelce. Kincaid has been a man crush of mine since I started diving through his metrics and film. Looking at the Bills’ tight-end depth chart could cause concern for dynasty GMs, with Dawson Knox having sizable guarantees until 2025. Knox and Kincaid can coexist in this offense as they will play different roles. Over the last two years, Knox has played 42-47.2% of his snaps in the slot, which will decrease dramatically with Kincaid in town. Knox was in line for 31.3-37.6% of his snaps during that stretch, which should bump higher. Knox has been a top-shelf run blocker and serviceable pass protector ranking eighth and 35th in PFF run and pass blocking grades last year (minimum 100 blocking snaps per PFF). Knox can be their new 12-personnel tight end, with Kincaid assuming primary passing down responsibilities in the slot. While Knox has been fantasy relevant since 2021, he’s never been a heavy target earner. He’s never sniffed a 14% target share or a target-per-route run rate above 17% as a full-time player. Kincaid should have no issues earning targets early, as the Bills didn’t have a player with more than a 25% target per route run rate that logged at least a 23% route run rate outside of Stefon Diggs. Kincaid should eat as the Bills’ big slot. Last year among all collegiate wide receivers and tight ends with at least 20 slot targets, he was second in PFF receiving grade from the slot. If we pin this down to tight ends, Kincaid ranked third in slot yards per route run (per PFF). Kincaid should be viewed as a first-round wide receiver because that’s what Buffalo views him as. After the run on wide receivers in the first round of this year’s draft, Buffalo played chess instead of checkers by selecting the “tight end” Kincaid. Kincaid is a first-round rookie draft pick that should come off the board immediately after the top four wide receivers.
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