Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
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Most Overrated Player on Each AFC West Team
AFC West
| TEAM | ANDREW | DEREK | PAT | JOE |
| Denver Broncos | Javonte Williams | Javonte Williams | Javonte Williams | Courtland Sutton |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Kadarius Toney | Kadarius Toney | Skyy Moore | Kadarius Toney |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Jakobi Meyers | Jakobi Meyers | Davante Adams | Josh Jacobs |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Mike Williams | Mike Williams | Mike Williams | Mike Williams |
Denver Broncos – Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams was used as a committee back in college with Michael Carter and as a committee back in Year 1 with Melvin Gordon. In 2023, he will be used in a committee backfield with Samaje Perine under a new coaching staff coming off a major knee injury. Williams’ tackle-breaking ability is enticing — PFF elusive rating of 116.3 was the highest among all running backs with a minimum of 45 carries in 2022 — but his inability to completely own the backfield is too often overlooked. – Erickson
Kansas City Chiefs – Kadarius Toney
In the AFC Championship Game, Kadarius Toney ran three routes. In the Super Bowl, after two weeks of game planning, Toney ran five routes. I understand the bullish case for Toney based on his 4th-ranked target rate per route run (29%) over the last two seasons. And he plays in the Chiefs offense. But he has displayed zero ability to maintain a full-time role in the NFL with one game played with at least a 75% snap share. Toney has also missed so much time with injuries, which also relates to his lack of availability. Why draft Toney as fantasy WR3 with his fourth-ranked target rate when you can draft Deonte Harty (potential limited role in high-powered Bills offense) and his top-10 target rate for FREE. – Erickson
Las Vegas Raiders – Davante Adams
Adams is one of the best pass catchers in the league, but I’m expecting a decline in production now that he’ll no longer be paired with either Aaron Rodgers or his former college teammate, Derek Carr. The Raiders’ new quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, isn’t known for being an aggressive downfield thrower. He averaged 6.9 air yards on his pass attempts last season. Carr averaged 9.1 air yards last year. Adams is reportedly frustrated with the direction of the Raiders offense. This seems like a recipe for disappointment. Adams is typically being drafted at the first-round/second-round turn, and I have serious doubts that he’ll be able to justify that sort of investment. – Fitzmaurice
Las Angeles Chargers – Mike Williams
Every year it seems like the same story with Mike Williams. Flashes of touchdowns and big-plays that are diminished by overall inconsistency. He finished last season as the WR20 in points per game, but missed four games. He also so his TD totals dip by over 50% going from 9 in 2021 to 4 in 2022. At this point, it seems Williams will never fully put together a truly epic WR1 season that he has teased every year since 2018. I am still feverishly waiting for him to go over 1,000 yards with double-digit TDs. Don’t hold your breath. – Erickson
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