Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.

Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.

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Most Overrated Player on Each AFC South Team

AFC South

Houston Texans – Dameon Pierce
Banking on a running back delivering solely on volume is a bet that I try to avoid making. Because it’s the one component to a fantasy RB’s game that can disappear quickly. And that’s why I can’t back Dameon Pierce as a top-20 running back. His production was 100% tied to the carry volume he got last season, and he broke down as the season progressed. The team also added Devin Singletary in the offseason who is an immediate upgrade over Pierce’s 2022 competition. And Pierce’s role as a receiver is still very much up in the air, which is problematic for a team that projects to be trailing in games in 2023. Ultimately, I’m not afraid of missing out on a two-down grinder back for the Houston Texans. – Erickson

Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson
FantasyPros has tracked Richardson’s ADP at QB15, and his ADP on Underdog is all the way up to QB15. With his rare physical traits and a better handle on the subtleties of playing quarterback than he’s given credit for, Richardson has a chance to become a star. But it seems unlikely that he’s going to have a good season as a passer in Year 1, which means his running ability might have to float his rookie-year fantasy value. Richardson is 6-4, 244 pounds with 4.43 speed, so a 1,000-yard rushing season with double-digit TD runs isn’t out of the question, but his ADP is blowing up so quickly that he’ll almost need to post extraordinary rushing numbers just to pay off. – Fitzmaurice

Jacksonville Jaguars – Travis Etienne
Drafting Travis Etienne (ECR RB12) as a top-15 back, much less an RB1, is lunacy. We can’t ignore the team drafting Tank Bigsby in the third round, especially with how badly Etienne struggled in the red zone last season. In 2022, among 65 qualifying running backs ranked 57th in red zone touchdown conversion rate. If you believe his pass game role this year can offset Bigsby’s incoming touchdown vulturing, his 7.8% target share (31st) last season should be an extra large sippy cup of cold water. Etienne is a low-end RB2 at best. – DBro

Tennessee Titans – Chig Okonkwo
The hype and hope for a Chigoziem Oknokwo breakout has reached questionable proportions (ECR: TE12). Okonkwo’s talent is tantalizing, but I remember this song and dance from last season. At this time last year, my Albert Okwuegbunam love letter was passionate and well-rehearsed. Small sample efficiency is alluring, but we must temper our expectations with a run-heavy offense that could have a rookie starting quarterback by midseason. Drafting Okonkwo over players like Cole Kmet or Gerald Everett or a similar upside bet with Greg Dulcich feels a little punch drunk. – DBro

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