Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate is sizable, including 10 games at DraftKings and FanDuel. It begins at 7:05 pm ET at both DFS outlets. Today’s DFS primer has three pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Max Scherzer and Charlie Morton are facing off tonight, and their matchups are tough enough to bypass them for the top-ranked hurler. The second pitcher on the table has dominated lately, but pitching at Coors Field could result in a messy outing. So, he's only a tournament option. The third pitcher is a useful value pick, freeing up meaningful cap space for hitting on a slate with many tantalizing studs.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Jon Gray (TEX) vs. STL
Gray is having a rock-solid season. And he's on a heater, albeit with the help of good luck. According to FanGraphs, Gray has had a 0.79 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 4.9 BB%, 26.0 K% and 28.0 CSW% in his last five starts, totaling 34.0 innings. Obviously, a sub-1.00 ERA isn't sustainable. Fortunately, Gray's 3.97 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA during those games would be an acceptable caliber of pitching for his salary on tonight's slate.
The Cardinals are a challenging matchup. Yet, the betting info is decent. Per Betting Pros, the Rangers are -145, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. So, Gray has a stellar profile tonight at a reasonable salary, making him the top pitcher on the slate.
Jaime Barria (LAA) vs. CHC
Barria has pitched only 34.0 innings this year because he's made 11 relief appearances and just two starts. Still, he has a 1.59 ERA, 2.70 xERA, 3.69 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 8.1 BB%, 25.0 K% and 29.1 CSW%. Furthermore, the 26-year-old righty was sharp in his two starts, holding Boston scoreless in 5.0 innings on May 22 and allowing only one run to the White Sox in 5.0 innings on May 31. In addition, he struck out 12 batters in his two starts.
The Cubs present him with a favorable matchup for another good start. Chicago is tied for 18th in wRC+ (96) against righties and has a 24.1 K% against them this season. They're also in a funk, ranking 28th in wRC+ (69) and striking out in an eye-popping 28.4% of their plate appearances in the previous 14 days. Finally, the Angels are -135, and the game's total is 9.0 runs, cementing Barria's status as the top SP2 in all game types at DK tonight.
GPP Recommendation:
Logan Webb (SF) at COL
It's not a secret. Coors Field can bring even a frontline starting pitcher to their knees. So, there's a substantial risk for gamers taking the plunge on Webb. Thankfully, the risk should suppress the percentage of rosters Webb is on tonight.
And Webb could overcome the park factors against Colorado's underwhelming lineup. In Webb's last five starts spanning 34.0 innings, he's had a 1.59 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 6.1 BB%, 26.0 K%, 64.0 GB% and 32.1 CSW%. Webb's elite groundball rate, low walk rate and high strikeout rate give him the tools to avoid the pitfalls of Coors Field.
Moreover, Webb was great in Colorado last year, holding the Rockies scoreless in 5.1 innings on September 21, 2022, and ceding just three runs in 7.0 innings on May 18, 2022. And the Giants are -200, putting the finishing touches on Webb's case for usage in GPPs tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Giants didn't waste time getting comfy in Coors Field's cozy confines, hanging 10 runs on the hosts in the series opener last night. San Francisco's top-10 offense against righties can light up the scoreboard again tonight in a dreamy matchup. Connor Seabold has a 5.40 ERA, 4.45 xERA, 5.46 xFIP and 16.6 K% this season. He's also allowed 1.51 HR/9 innings. Toss in Colorado's lousy bullpen (5.24 ERA, the second highest in MLB this year), and it would be shocking if the Giants don't feast tonight.
- Road (Great American Ball Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.0 Runs/LAD -170
The Dodgers are at MLB's second-highest-scoring ballpark. So, their upside is on par with San Francisco's at Coors Field tonight. Additionally, LA's offense crushes lefties. They have a 115 wRC+ and .239 ISO against southpaws this year. They shouldn't have any problem getting the better of rookie Brandon Williamson. The rookie lefty has a 4.29 ERA, 6.30 xERA and 5.16 xFIP in four starts for the Reds. He was also rocked for a 6.62 ERA and 6.23 xFIP in eight starts in Triple-A in 2023. So, again, the Dodgers should light up the scoreboard tonight.
- Home (Angel Stadium)
- Value: Medium (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/LAA -135
The Angels might be off the radar tonight with games at Coors Field and Great American Ball Park. However, it's unwise to sleep on them. Jameson Taillon's struggled mightily this year. The 31-year-old righty has a 7.05 ERA, 5.09 xERA and 4.67 xFIP in nine starts, lasting only 37.0 innings. Conversely, the Angels are seventh in wRC+ (106) versus righties this year. They're also in good form, ranking fifth in wRC+ (120) in the last 14 days. Finally, they have a 112 wRC+ and a .197 ISO at home this year. As a result, their ceiling is sky-high tonight.
- In 197 plate appearances against righties this season, Shohei Ohtani has a .364 OBP, .289 ISO and 154 wRC+. Meanwhile, Taillon has coughed up a .403 OBP, .597 SLG and .425 wOBA to left-handed batters this year.
- In 342 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Ketel Marte has had a .380 OBP, .255 ISO and 155 wRC+.
- J.D. Davis hit cleanup last night in San Francisco's suddenly healthy lineup, instantly giving him a compelling case for inclusion in DFS lineups tonight. In addition, he has a .380 OBP, .200 ISO and 140 wRC+ against righties this season.
- Elly De La Cruz hit cleanup last night in his big-league debut. So, he's a steal at his salary based only on his lineup spot. And, of course, De La Cruz was an unstoppable force in Triple-A before he was summoned to the parent club. The toolsy infielder had 12 homers, 11 stolen bases, a .398 OBP, .335 ISO and 152 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances in Triple-A.
- In 361 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Chris Taylor has had a .331 OBP, .230 ISO and 120 wRC+.
- In 320 plate appearances against righties at home in Alejandro Kirk's career, he's had a.359 OBP, .188 ISO and 129 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Giants are the top stack in cash games. However, there are enough alternatives to potentially keep them from getting too chalky, making them a good stack in tournaments. The Dodgers and Angels are high-upside stacks in GPPs as well. Finally, Marte, De La Cruz and Kirk are appealing one-offs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
