The MLB DFS main slate is usually small or medium-sized on Wednesdays. But gamers who love large slates can rejoice. Tonight’s slate has 12 games at DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:05 pm ET at both DFS outlets. Therefore, today’s premier has four pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two righties have the distinction of being the top options in cash games and GPPs, respectively. The top pitcher on the table is an excellent choice in all game types and should headline cash rosters. The second pitcher on the table is a high-upside pivot in GPPs. The third pitcher is a steal as an SP2 in cash games on DK and a useful dart in GPPs on FD. And the final pitcher is risky because of his home ballpark. However, his upside because of an outstanding matchup is worth chasing in GPPs at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. MIA
Castillo enters tonight's matchup in good form. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts spanning 30.0 innings, he's had a 2.70 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 6.6 BB%, 32.8 K% and 31.6 CSW%.
Castillo has also excelled at T-Mobile Park. Per Baseball-Reference, in 79.1 innings in Seattle, he's had a 1.70 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 BB% and 34.0 K%. Castillo can continue his excellence in Seattle in a tasty matchup.
This year, Miami is tied for 25th in wRC+ (91) and has a 22.5 K% against righties. They're also tied for 20th in wRC+ (93) on the road and have a 22.5 K%. And the betting info is drool-inducing. Per Betting Pros, Seattle is -190, and the game's total is 7.0 runs. Castillo's floor and ceiling are incredibly high tonight.
Ranger Suarez (PHI) at ARI
Suarez is underpriced relative to how he's pitched lately. In his last three starts, he's had a 1.83 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 6.4 BB%, 19.2 K%, 50.9 GB%, totaling 19.2 innings. And all three of those turns were quality starts.
Sadly, Suarez doesn't have an easy matchup. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are only a slightly above-average offense against lefties, ranking 14th in wRC+ (105) against them. Arizona's offense isn't too imposing to dissuade gamers from gobbling up Suarez's bargain salary when using him as the SP2. And since he's tallying quality starts and pitching well, he's also a viable dart in GPPs on FD.
GPP Recommendations:
Tyler Glasnow (TB) at OAK
Glasnow is back in ace form after logging only a few innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery. In 15.2 innings through three starts this year, Glasnow has a 2.87 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 10.9 BB%, 31.3 K% and 31.0 CSW%.
Glasnow has an opportunity to reach his ceiling in a tantalizing matchup tonight. The Athletics are 25th in wRC+ (88) and have a 25.4 K% versus righties this year. They're also tied for 29th in wRC+ (85) and have a 24.8 K% at home in 2023. As a result of Oakland's offensive ineptitude and Glasnow's elite bat-missing ability, he can pile up fantasy points tonight, making him a great GPP pick.
Garrett Whitlock (BOS) vs. COL
Whitlock has been inconsistent this year, spinning three starts when he allowed precisely one earned run and three allowing at least four runs. The righty's lack of consistency makes him a lousy pick in cash games.
Yet, chasing his potential in a soft matchup makes perfect sense in GPPs. The Rockies are 24th in wRC+ (89) and have a 22.1 K% against righties this year. They're also in a funk, ranking 28th in wRC+ (60) and punching out at a 27.2% clip in the last 14 days. And, predictably, Colorado has face-planted on the road, ranking 28th in wRC+ (75) and punching out in 25.4% of their plate appearances. Thus, gamers entering multiple lineups into GPPs at DK should embrace Whitlock's volatility, hoping he makes the most of his matchup tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
Tampa Bay's offense has been silent in Oakland this week. They have another opportunity to explode in yet another good matchup tonight. In seven appearances (five starts) totaling 34.2 innings, Luis Medina has a 7.53 ERA, 6.06 xERA, 4.77 xFIP and 1.56 WHIP. The rookie has also coughed up an eye-popping 2.60 HR/9. Even though the Rays have struggled through the first two games of the four-game series, their offense is too good to stay cold. They're first in wRC+ (124) and second in ISO (.201) against right-handed pitchers in 2023 and first in wRC+ (119) and third in ISO (.192) on the road.
- Road (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -275
Mike Clevinger has a 4.19 ERA in 11 starts this year. However, his 4.76 xERA and 5.38 xFIP are more exciting marks to stack against and suggest he's been lucky this year. In addition, left-handed batters crush him, posting a .500 SLG and .356 wOBA against him this year. Clevinger isn't too tough on righties, either, yielding a .317 wOBA to them. Therefore, the lefties and righties in LA's high-octane offense can tear the cover off the ball tonight.
- Road (Kauffman Stadium)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/CIN -120
The influx of youth in Cincinnati's offense provides them a lift. And the hitter-friendly conditions at Kauffman Stadium are ideal for their DFS upside. The matchup also isn't too shabby. Daniel Lynch has a 4.41 ERA, 4.33 xERA and 4.42 xFIP in three starts in 2023. So, he's not a terrifying matchup for Cincinnati's offense. Moreover, the Reds should be excited about facing Kansas City's dreadful bullpen. Kansas City's relievers have the third-highest ERA (4.89) this season.
- In 185 plate appearances against righties this year, Josh Lowe has 10 homers, a .341 OBP, .249 ISO and 149 wRC+. The toolsy outfielder has also stolen 15 bases in 17 attempts.
- In 154 plate appearances against righties this year, Luke Raley has nine homers, a .357 OBP and 160 wRC+. The slugger has also stolen eight bases this season.
- In 105 plate appearances against lefties in his young career, Josh Jung has eight homers, a .343 OBP, .300 ISO and 164 wRC+.
- Gunnar Henderson has nine homers, a .344 OBP, .285 ISO and 140 wRC+ in 158 plate appearances against righties this season. He's also dialed in lately, clubbing five homers in 30 plate appearances this month. He's also had multiple hits in his last four games.
- In 136 plate appearances against righties this year, Jason Heyward has a .353 OBP .257 ISO and 134 wRC+.
- In 166 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year, Miguel Vargas has a .339 OBP, .170 ISO and 108 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Rays and Dodgers are the most exciting offenses on tonight's large slate. But the Reds have a compelling case as a contrarian GPP stack. And one-offs like Jung and Henderson are stellar selections in all game types.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
