Tonight’s MLB DFS slate is large. It has 13 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer reduces the focus from a large player pool to three suggested starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is intriguing tonight. Some quality pitchers missed the cut, and even the top options aren't flawless. However, the first-listed pitcher has pitched nearly perfectly lately. And the second option is a high-ceiling pivot in GPPs in a plus matchup. The final choice has a good matchup in his pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Blake Snell (SD) at PIT
Snell is pitching out of his mind lately. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts spanning 31.0 innings, he's had a 0.29 ERA, 1.83 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP, 8.0 BB%, 44.2 K% and 34.9 CSW%.
While the lefty is dialed in, his opponent is slumping. In the last 14 days, the Pirates are 30th in wRC+ (46) and have a 25.4 K% in the last 14 days. Thus, per Betting Pros, the Padres are -160, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs.
JP Sears (OAK) vs. NYY
Sears hasn't matched Snell's dominance lately. Still, in his last five starts totaling 29.2 innings, the lefty has had a 3.03 ERA, 4.34 SIERA, 0.91 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, 24.8 K% and 25.8 CSW%. Sears has also pitched well at home this year. In 35.0 innings at home this season, Sears has a 3.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.6 BB% and 21.7 K%.
Sears can pitch well in a good matchup tonight against the Yankees. New York is tied for 18th in wRC+ (99) and has a 23.4 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're also 28th in wRC+ (70) and have a 21.8 K% in the previous 14 days. Furthermore, they're tied for 17th in wRC+ (93) and have a 23.4 K% on the road this year.
The betting info isn't too shabby, either. The Athletics are slight underdogs (+130), and the game's total is a non-threatening 8.0 runs. So, Sears is an excellent bargain as an SP2 at DK. And he's an enticing option in GPPs on FD.
GPP Recommendation:
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs. MIL
Senga has done his best work at home in his first MLB campaign. In 39.1 innings at Citi Field, he has a 2.52 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 12.4 BB% and 30.4 K%. Sadly, the 30-year-old righty's iffy control can get him into trouble, even in cushy matchups.
Still, he has a mouthwatering matchup tonight. The Brewers are tied for 24th in wRC+ (87) and have a 24.9 K% versus righties this year. Milwaukee is also 27th in wRC+ (72) and has a 28.0 K% in the last 14 days. Additionally, they're tied for 26th in wRC+ (81) and have a 25.1 K% on the road.
The betting info is the cherry on top. The Mets are -145, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Reds are ripping the cover off the ball lately. In the last 14 days, they're third in wRC+ (125) and second in ISO (.243). The addition of youth and a returning veteran creates a quality and deep lineup capable of erupting any night. Their odds for an outburst are enhanced tonight in a cupcake matchup. Kyle Gibson has a 4.30 ERA, 4.93 xERA and 4.48 xFIP in 16 starts this year.
- Home (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/TEX -225
The Rangers are an offensive powerhouse. They're tied for second in wRC+ (129) against lefties in 2023. Texas is tied for fifth in wRC+ (119) in the last 14 days. And they're second in wRC+ (135) at home this season. Joey Wentz is unlikely to cool the Rangers off. In 67.0 innings, the 25-year-old lefty has a 6.72 ERA, 5.47 xERA and 4.83 xFIP. He's also coughed up 1.88 HR/9.
- In 116 plate appearances against lefties since reaching the majors last year, Josh Jung has a .336 OBP, .306 ISO and 162 wRC+.
- Jake Fraley has a .388 OBP, .238 ISO and 144 wRC+ in 196 plate appearances against righties this season. The outfielder has also swiped 12 bases in 15 attempts this year.
- Joey Votto isn't out of gas yet. In 27 plate appearances this year, he has three homers, a .407 OBP, .429 ISO and 178 wRC+.
- In 120 plate appearances against lefties since reaching the bigs last year, Ezequiel Duran has a .342 OBP, .243 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- Will Benson has a .391 OBP, .182 ISO and 128 wRC+ against righties this year. He's also white-hot lately. In 70 plate appearances in the last 30 days, Benson has had three homers, four stolen bases, a .471 OBP, .250 ISO and 182 wRC+.
- Brendan Donovan has a 119 wRC+ against righties this year. He's also an attractive value because he hits leadoff.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
It's never comfortable to fade Coors Field. However, the Reds and Rangers are my two favorite sources of offense tonight.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
