Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has a dozen games. It starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The large slate has a desirable mix of quality starting pitchers at various salaries and multiple high-upside offenses. Today’s DFS primer is vast to match the slate size.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The first two pitchers on the table have tantalizing ceilings. However, the top option is safer with a cupcake matchup, rendering the second pick an attractive pivot in GPPs. The third and fourth pitchers have compelling cases for usage tonight, too.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs. OAK
Keller was rock-solid down the stretch last year but has become a legitimate monster this season. He's also in outstanding form. In his last five starts spanning 34.0 innings, Keller has had a 3.18 ERA, 2.42 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 3.0 BB%, 33.6 K% and 30.3 CSW%.
Keller should look like an ace tonight in a dreamy matchup. The Athletics are 29th in wRC+ (78) and have a 26.5 K% against righties this year. Oakland also has the worst offense over the last 14 days, tallying a 47 wRC+ and 26.3 K%. As a result, per Betting Pros, the Pirates are -240, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
James Paxton (BOS) at CLE
Paxton's triumphant return from injuries limiting him to 20.1 innings in 2020, 1.1 innings in 2021 and zero innings in the majors last has been a fun story. Yet, it also makes Paxton a useful DFS pick.
The 34-year-old lefty has struck out at least five batters in all four of his starts this year and held three opponents to two runs or less. Paxton can have another good turn tonight. Cleveland is 28th in wRC+ (87) against lefties this year. The Guardians are also 24th in wRC+ (87) in the past 14 days. So, they're a sweet matchup. Sadly, the Red Sox are slight underdogs (+110), but the game's total (8.0 runs) is pitcher-friendly. Therefore, Paxton is the best SP2 in cash games at DK.
GPP Recommendations:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. HOU
The Astros pummeled the Blue Jays last night. And since Gausman's salary is similar to Keller's, Toronto's ace will undoubtedly be on a markedly lower percentage of DFS rosters. So, Gausman's excellence is worth rolling the dice on in tournaments against Houston's mid-pack offense against righties.
Gausman is on fire lately. In his last five starts, he's had a 1.36 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 8.5 BB%, 32.6 K% and 29.1 CSW% in 33.0 innings. In addition, the betting info is stellar. The Blue Jays are -140, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Thus, Gausman scoring more DFS points tonight than Keller is within the realm of possibility.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs. CWS
In his three most recent starts, Schmidt has cooked with gasoline, spinning a 1.72 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 7.9 BB%, 27.0 K% and 13.3 SwStr% in 15.2 innings. The righty thrived in those turns as essentially a five-and-dive pitcher.
The righty can remain in a groove in a superb matchup tonight. Chicago is 26th in wRC+ (81) against right-handed pitchers this year. And the White Sox are 28th in wRC+ (73) in the last 14 days. The White Sox also lacks threatening left-handed batters, which is ideal for Schmidt since he's held righties to a .294 wOBA this year. Finally, the Yankees are -170, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
Obviously, San Francisco's lineup gets a lift from playing at Coors Field tonight. However, they're already a top-shelf offense. The Giants are fifth in wRC+ (109) against right-handed pitchers this season. They also have a top-10 offense in the past 14 days, ranking ninth in wRC+ (110). And the matchup against Dinelson Lamet is tasty. So, the Giants could erupt tonight and score the most runs on the slate in a fantastic setup.
- Road (Great American Ball Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 10.0 Runs/LAD -195
The Dodgers are another candidate to score the most runs tonight in a perfect setup. First, Great American Ball Park is literally the second-highest-scoring venue to Coors Field, putting Los Angeles in a prime setting to light up the scoreboard. Second, opposing starter Luke Weaver has been tattooed for a 5.36 ERA, 4.20 xERA, 4.22 xFIP and 2.27 HR/9 in eight starts this year. And, of course, LA's offense is elite. They're third in wRC+ (115) against righties in 2023. Furthermore, the Dodgers have the best offense in the last 14 days, unloading for a 134 wRC+.
- Road (Nationals Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ARI -155
The Diamondbacks are a contrarian GPP pivot from their NL West rivals Giants and Dodgers. Yet, Arizona is also a top-10 offense against right-handed pitchers this year, ranking tied for eighth in wRC+ (105). Jake Irvin and Washington's lousy bullpen can allow the Diamondbacks' offense to spread its wings and fly tonight. Irvin has a 5.67 ERA, 6.00 xERA and 5.87 xFIP through six starts in his first taste of the majors this season. And Washington's relievers have the fourth-highest ERA (4.73) in 2023.
- J.D. Martinez is obliterating righties in a bounce-back campaign. He has a .389 ISO and 168 wRC+ in 137 plate appearances against them this season.
- In 181 plate appearances against righties this year, LaMonte Wade has a .436 OBP, .201 ISO and 161 wRC+. He also benefits from slotting atop San Francisco's lineup.
- J.D. Davis has a .380 OBP, .200 ISO and 140 wRC+ in 159 wRC+ against righties this year.
- Jason Heyward has had a shocking rebound for the Dodgers. In 124 plate appearances against righties this season, he has a .364 OBP, .257 ISO and 138 wRC+.
- In 257 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Yan Gomes has had a .246 ISO and 129 wRC+.
- Miguel Vargas has a .355 OBP, .188 ISO and 119 wRC+ in 153 plate appearances against righties this year, making him a steal at his bargain salary, especially at DK.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Giants and Dodgers should smash tonight and have some viable value options besides their highest-salaried options. But gamers also shouldn't sleep on the Diamondbacks in tournaments.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
