Tonight’s slate is massive. It has 11 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The pitching is rich, and today’s primer has four suggested options. The primer also features two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked pitcher isn't the only ace taking the ball tonight. So, while he's listed as the best pick in cash games, he's also appealing in GPPs. The second pitcher on the table is a safe SP2 in cash games on DK. And the third and fourth listed pitchers are GPP options at both DFS providers.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. SEA
Frankly, Cole has underperformed expectations. Having said that, he's still been quite good. According to FanGraphs, in 15 starts spanning 91.2 innings, Cole has a 2.75 ERA, 4.02 xERA, 3.86 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 7.8 BB%, 26.4 K% and 28.6 CSW%.
Additionally, Cole is a stud at home. In 237.1 innings at home since 2021, he's had a 3.07 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 6.0 BB% and 32.7 K%. The veteran righty has an average matchup tonight. However, Seattle has a high strikeout rate (25.6 K%) against right-handed pitchers this year, elevating Cole's floor and ceiling. And per Betting Pros, the Yankees are -135, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs.
Marcus Stroman (CHC) at PIT
Stroman has spun six consecutive quality starts entering tonight, earning a win in all of those contests. During his streak, he's had a 1.51 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 8.9 BB%, 19.6 K% and 65.2 GB%. The groundball whiz held the Pirates to two runs on four hits, two walks and five strikeouts in six innings in his most recent start.
The betting info is encouraging for another good start against his NL Central foe tonight. The Cubs are -135, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. The Pirates are a favorable matchup, too. Pittsburgh is 20th in wRC+ (93) and has a 23.0 K% against righties in 2023.
GPP Recommendations:
Justin Verlander (NYM) at HOU
Verlander hasn't been consistent this year. Still, he's allowed two runs or fewer in five of eight starts. Additionally, three of his five top-shelf starts were at home, and the outlier was his first start at Citi Field this year against Tampa Bay's righty-killing lineup.
He's also had his two highest swinging-strike percentages in his last two starts. So, Verlander might be poised to enjoy a surge in strikeouts. His pitch modeling is also noteworthy. Per FanGraphs, Verlander has a 104 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 103 Pitching+. Thus, Verlander possesses enough positives in his profile to take the plunge at his value salary in GPPs, with the bonus of freeing up cap space for stud hitters.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs. LAD
Detmers has been the victim of a lousy left-on-base percentage (67.8 LOB%) and .362 BABIP in 12 starts this season. As a result, the lefty's 4.48 ERA is much higher than his 4.34 xERA and 3.91 xFIP. Detmers also has an outstanding 27.7 K%.
Detmers's high strikeout rate and respectable ERA estimators make him a viable tournament option at his value salary. Additionally, the young lefty has had a respectable 3.87 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 8.5 BB% and 25.3 K% in 114.0 innings at home in his big-league career. Sadly, the Dodgers are a challenging matchup for him tonight. However, the unfavorable matchup should make the high-strikeout hurler a contrarian choice, enhancing the appeal of using him in tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Reds have a mouthwatering matchup against an overmatched rookie tonight. Noah Davis has a 6.17 ERA, 4.13 xERA and 3.98 xFIP in three starts (11.2 innings) this year for the Rockies. The ERA estimators say he's been unlucky. Yet, Davis was struggling in Triple-A as well. He had a 6.31 ERA and 6.32 xFIP in seven starts, totaling 25.2 innings. When Davis departs, a bottom-10 bullpen will relieve him. Colorado's relievers have the sixth-highest ERA (4.50) in 2023. Therefore, Cincinnati has a sky-high ceiling tonight, reflected by their implied total.
- Home (Angel Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAA +130
Clayton Kershaw hasn't fallen off a cliff this year. On the contrary, he's pitched exceedingly well. In 14 starts spanning 82.1 innings this year, Kershaw has had a 2.95 ERA, 3.51 xERA and 3.08 xFIP. Kershaw has also allowed 1.31 HR/9. So, he hasn't been perfect. Kershaw's excellence should depress the percentage of DFS rosters the Angels are stacked on.
The Angels shouldn't be slept on, though. Five of their projected starters have had at least a 127 wRC+ against lefties since 2021, and two more have had at least a 113 wRC+. The Angels can also tee off on LA's bullpen since it has the second-highest ERA (5.04) in 2023. So, it doesn't take too much squinting to see a path for the Angels erupting in their hitter-friendly home ballpark tonight, despite the challenging matchup.
- In 54 plate appearances in the majors, Elly De La Cruz has two doubles, one triple, one homer, a .352 OBP, 105 wRC+ and six stolen bases.
- In 175 plate appearances against righties this year, Jake Fraley has a .389 OBP, .203 ISO and 135 wRC+.
- In 213 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year, Christian Yelich has seven homers, a .394 OBP, .193 ISO and 138 wRC+. Yelich has also swiped 16 stolen bases in 18 attempts.
- Joey Votto made his season debut with a bang last night, recording two hits, including a homer, with one walk and three RBI. And in 622 plate appearances against righties since 2021, he's had a .360 OBP, .282 ISO and 133 wRC+.
- David Villar started against a righty last night and smashed a homer against Michael Wacha. Before finding his stroke in the minors, he struggled in the majors earlier this year. Villar has conquered the Triple-A level. In 446 plate appearances in Triple-A in his career, he has 31 homers, a .401 OBP, .322 ISO and 142 wRC+. Villar might be a Quad-A player or endure more hiccups as he adjusts to the majors again. Still, he's an intriguing and likely overlooked player at the minimum salary on FD and nearly the minimum salary on DK.
- Amed Rosario is an above-average hitter at home. In 749 plate appearances in Cleveland since 2021, he's had a .332 OBP and 109 wRC+.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Reds are the top offense on a vast slate tonight. Although, the Angels are a fun stack in GPPs for gamers entering multiple lineups.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
