Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is massive. It has 14 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Since it’s an enormous slate, the picks in today’s primer are vast and include four pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is massive. It has 14 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Since it’s an enormous slate, the picks in today’s primer are vast and include four pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Tonight doesn't lack pitching options. Yet, two righties stand a cut above the rest, with the top hurler on the table profiling as the best pick in cash games and the second as the top choice in GPPs. Thankfully, there are bargain options as well. The third pitcher is the ideal SP2 in cash games at DK. He's also a stellar selection in tournaments at both DFS outlets. And the final pitcher on the table is a GPP dart at DK but unusable on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. WSH
Brown has graduated from a highly touted prospect to a legitimate big-league starting pitcher. According to FanGraphs, in 12 starts totaling 68.1 innings this year, he had a 3.69 ERA, 3.50 xERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 8.2 BB%, 28.1 K% and 28.6 CSW%. So, while his 3.69 ERA is rock-solid, his ERA estimators suggest he's been slightly unlucky.
Brown has good fortune tonight since he has a soft matchup on the docket. The Nationals are 27th in wRC+ (84) against righties this year. And they're 23rd in wRC+ (85) in the last 14 days. Further, per Betting Pros, the Astros are -260, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. As a result, Brown is a high-floor and high-ceiling choice, perfect for all game types.
Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. CLE
Like Brown, Musgrove has been somewhat unlucky this year. The veteran righty's 4.35 ERA is slightly underwhelming, but his 3.11 xERA and 4.09 xFIP are better. Musgrove's 23.3 K% will also get the job done in DFS. More encouraging, he's dominated at home since joining the Padres. In 205.0 innings at home since 2021, Musgrove has had a 3.16 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 6.8 BB% and 27.5 K%.
He has a matchup that should allow him to shine in front of the home crowd tonight. The Guardians are 26th in wRC+ (86) against righties in 2023. They're also 25th in wRC+ (85) on the road this year. And the betting info is good. The Padres are -162, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Corbin Burnes (MIL) at MIN
Burnes hasn't posted numbers on par with his NL Cy Young Award campaign. However, he's in a groove. In Burnes's last five starts totaling 32.0 innings, he's had a 3.38 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 27.7 K% and 30.2 CSW%.
Burnes's bat-missing ability pairs perfectly with Minnesota's high strikeout rates in all meaningful splits. First, they have a 27.0 K% against righties in 2023. Second, the Twins have a 29.4 K% in the previous 14 days. Third, Minnesota has a 26.7 K% at home this year. Gamers in tournaments are encouraged to chase Burnes's elite strikeout potential tonight.
Yonny Chirinos (TB) at OAK
The Rays don't have a listed starter when writing this primer. However, Chirinos is projected to get the ball. The righty's 2.60 ERA in 47.0 innings greatly overstates how well he's pitched this year, evidenced by his 4.98 xERA and 5.41 xFIP.
Chirinos's 11.1 K% is also not DFS-friendly. Still, he had a 20.0 K% last year, and his pitch modeling is good. According to FanGraphs, Chirinos has a 102 Stuff+ this year, 98 Location+ and 97 Pitching+. A cushy matchup against the Athletics may bring the best out of Chirinos. The A's are 24th in wRC+ (89) and have a 25.4 K% against righties this season. This year, Oakland is also tied for 28th in wRC+ (86) at home. Chirinos could get lit up. Still, he's worked around his underlying stats and has the Stuff+ to carve up Oakland. Finally, his small salary on DK is ideal for freeing up cap space to invest in stud hitters.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Road (Oakland Coliseum)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Rays are MLB's most potent squad against lefties this year, ranking first in wRC+ (156) and ISO (.251) against them. They're also first in wRC+ (121) and tied for third in ISO (.195) on the road. They'd have a compelling case against any lefty. It's exhilarating to stack them against a rookie lefty with a 6.46 ERA and 5.42 xFIP, though. Hogan Harris is in over his head. Furthermore, Oakland's relievers have the highest ERA this year. So, the Rays should batter the hosts tonight.
- Road (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/LAA +120
The Angels get a reprieve from facing white-hot Jon Gray tonight. Instead, rookie lefty Cody Bradford will likely get the ball. The 25-year-old rookie has a 7.20 ERA, 5.86 xERA and 5.10 xFIP in his first two starts in The Show. He'll have his hands full against the Angels tonight. They are sixth in wRC+ (116) against lefties and tied for fifth in wRC+ (106) on the road.
- Home (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/LAD -205
Lance Lynn is a train wreck this season. In 13 starts spanning 72.1 innings, he has a 6.72 ERA and 5.42 xERA. Lynn has also served up 1.99 HR/9. The veteran righty has held fellow righties to a .290 wOBA. However, the 155 lefties who've faced him this season have torched him for a .362 batting average, .413 OBP, .702 SLG and .467 wOBA. Hence, Los Angeles's projected starting lineup on the table features an extra left-handed batter instead of Miguel Vargas. The Dodgers should exacerbate Lynn's struggles in 2023 since they're fourth in wRC+ (113) against righties, tied for third in wRC+ (121) in the previous 14 days and third in wRC+ (126) at home.
- In 411 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Randy Arozarena has had a .382 OBP, .250 ISO and 162 wRC+. He's also a threat to steal a base, swiping nine this year.
- Max Muncy has teed off against righties this year for a .352 OBP, .303 ISO and 134 wRC+.
- In 249 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Brandon Drury has had a .284 ISO and 140 wRC+.
- In 136 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, Jason Heyward has a .353 OBP, .257 ISO and 134 wRC+.
- Taylor Ward is a sweet punt for a few reasons. First, he is atop the Angels' batting order. Second, Ward is swinging a hot bat. Third, he's had a 116 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- In 37 plate appearances against lefties in his rookie season, Zach Neto has had a .378 OBP .219 ISO and 147 wRC+.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
A stars and scrubs lineup is inviting on tonight's slate. Thankfully, there are studs and bargains to choose from on the Rays, Angels and Dodgers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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