It’s literally the largest possible MLB DFS slate tonight. All 30 teams are playing, creating a vast player pool to narrow in today’s primer to four pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts. The fun starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching options are outstanding tonight, and many quality options were neglected in favor of the four highlighted hurlers. So, the percentage of rosters the hurlers are on might be flat instead of featuring massive chalk. Still, the first hurler was comfortably the top pick. The second and third pitchers are nearly neck and neck, but a better matchup earned the second choice the nod. The final pitcher is making only his second start in the majors tonight, but the matchup is tantalizing.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. CWS
Ohtani is having a superb season on the bump. Yet, his consistent dominance, matchup and betting info earn him the top honor as the best pitcher on the slate. According to FanGraphs, in 218.1 innings at home since 2021, Ohtani has had a 2.02 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 8.0 BB% and 32.6 K%.
Meanwhile, the White Sox have a lousy offense by any split. First, they're 28th in wRC+ (84) and have a 22.9 K% against righties. Second, Chicago is tied for 22nd in wRC+ (90) and has a 23.7 K% in the last 14 days. Third, the White Sox are 28th in wRC+ (79) and have a 24.0 K% on the road in 2023. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Angels are -210, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs. WSH
Woo was rocked in his first start against Texas's high-powered offense. He's been excellent in three subsequent starts, tallying a 2.30 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, 6.7 BB%, 35.0 K% and 15.1 SwStr% in 15.2 innings.
Woo can maintain his momentum in a cushy matchup tonight. The Nationals are 26th in wRC+ (86) against righties. They're also 24th in wRC+ (88) in the last 14 days. Moreover, the Mariners are -225, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Ranger Suarez (PHI) at CHC
Suarez is on fire entering tonight's start. In his last five starts, he's had a 1.38 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 7.0 BB% and 22.7 K% in workhorse-like 32.2 innings. Sure, Suarez's xFIP doesn't align with his tiny ERA. Yet, it was rock-solid, and his other numbers were also good.
The Cubs aren't an ideal matchup. However, they give Suarez some strikeout potential. Chicago has a 25.0 K% against lefties this year. And they also have a 23.0 K% at home. Finally, while the total isn't listed yet, the Phillies are -130.
Gavin Williams (CLE) at KC
Williams didn't light the world on fire in his first start in the majors. Instead, he allowed four runs on four hits, three walks and four strikeouts in 5.2 innings. Perhaps after getting his first taste of facing big-league hitters, he'll kick it up a notch to match his dominance from the minors. In 130.1 innings in Double-A and Triple-A combined, Williams had a 2.35 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 9.7 BB% and 31.5 K%.
He'll have a golden opportunity to strut his stuff tonight in a soft matchup. The Royals are 30th in wRC+ (82) and have a 24.5 K% against righties this year. Kansas City is also 21st in wRC+ (97) and has a 24.3 K% in the last 14 days. And they're tied for 24th in wRC+ (91) at home this year. As a cherry on top, the Guardians are -140. Although, the game's total of 9.0 runs reflects some risk for using Williams at hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Dodgers have a massive implied total due to playing at Coors Field tonight in a mouthwatering matchup. In 56.2 innings this year, Connor Seabold has a 5.88 ERA, 4.77 xERA and 5.43 xFIP. He's also a punching bag for lefties and righties. The 136 lefties who've faced him this year have a .354 wOBA, and the 122 righties have a .378 wOBA. Colorado's bullpen is a plus for LA's outlook, too. Their relievers have the fourth-highest ERA (4.82) in 2023. The Dodgers will likely be chalky tonight. However, with a few enticing high-salaried pitchers and high-upside stacking alternatives, the percentage of rosters they're stacked on might not spiral out of control.
- Home (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/TEX -210
The Rangers have the upside to be the highest-scoring stack on tonight's DFS slate, making them an attractive pivot from the Dodgers in tournaments. The Rangers are second in wRC+ (117) against righties this year, second in wRC+ (135) and have a .211 ISO at home in 2023 and sixth in wRC+ (117) over the last 14 days. Michael Kopech isn't a terrifying matchup, albeit he has shown high-end ability in stretches this season. Still, he has a 4.06 ERA, 5.03 xERA and 4.74 xFIP in 15 starts this year. Also, Chicago's relievers are a draw for stacking the Rangers. They have the sixth-highest ERA (4.56) in 2023. As a result, the Rangers are arguably the best bet to give the Dodgers a run for the highest-scoring stack tonight.
- Home (Coors Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 12.0 Runs/COL +245
The Rockies have a tricky matchup against Clayton Kershaw at home tonight. Nevertheless, Coors Field can cause even the game's elite pitchers to falter. And Kershaw's elite 2.72 ERA in 15 starts this year isn't in lockstep with his 3.52 xERA and 3.21 xFIP. Most importantly, if Kershaw isn't as efficient as usual and gets lifted early, the Rockies can torch LA's dreadful bullpen. The Dodgers have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA (4.68) this year. So, gamers entering multiple lineups into GPPs tonight should consider firing a few bullets using the Rockies.
- Max Muncy is back from the Injured List tonight. In 176 plate appearances against righties this year, he has a .352 OBP, .303 ISO and 133 wRC+.
- In 188 plate appearances against righties this year, Will Smith has a .404 OBP, .203 ISO and 148 wRC+.
- Nathaniel Lowe has a .379 OBP, .177 ISO and 136 wRC+ in 235 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In a resurgent season at the dish, Jason Heyward has a .342 OBP, .232 ISO and 124 wRC+ against righties.
- Aaron Hicks is precisely an average hitter (100 wRC+) against lefties since 2021. However, he's raked since joining the Orioles and staked a claim to a good lineup spot. So, Hicks is a sweet punt at both DFS outlets.
- Ezequiel Tovar has an excellent lineup spot and gets a pick-me-up from the park factors at Coors Field. Additionally, he has decent numbers against lefties in his young career. In 91 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since debuting last year, Tovar has a .336 wOBA and .253 ISO.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Dodgers are a must-use offense in cash games. However, their ceiling is befitting usage in GPPs, too. The Rangers and Rockies are also stacking options in tournaments.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
