Thursday’s MLB DFS main slate is small and different at DraftKings and FanDuel. It has only four games on DK and begins at 7:07 pm ET. And it’s a five-game slate at FD, starting at 6:05 pm ET. Today’s picks are narrowed to three starting pitchers, one stack, two studs and four values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching selections are straightforward tonight. The middle tier and bottom tier are bereft of quality options. So, gamers are encouraged to make the requisite sizable salary commitment for the two pitchers on the table in DK's player pool. And the second-ranked pitcher has a compelling case in GPPs on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. NYM
Strider's strikeout ability is absurd. According to FanGraphs, Atlanta's ace is first among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate (40.6 K%), 6.3% higher than the second-highest mark. Put another way, the gap between Strider's strikeout rate and the second-highest mark is identical to the difference between second place and 11th.
And, of course, the rest of Strider's pitching profile is sparkling. In a dozen starts spanning 69.2 innings in 2023, he has a 2.97 ERA, 2.70 xERA, 2.83 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP and 35.4 CSW%. In addition to Strider's outstanding numbers, the betting info is good. Per Betting Pros, the Braves are -170, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Framber Valdez (HOU) at TOR
Pairing Valdez with Strider is not cheap, but it can be done. And Valdez is a top-shelf pitcher by any split. Yet, he's especially good lately. In his past five starts totaling 34.0 innings, the lefty has had a 1.59 ERA, 2.58 xFIP, 2.90 SIERA, 0.85 WHIP, 4.6 BB%, 29.8 K% and 29.9 CSW%.
Valdez also has a track record of success on the road. In 215.0 innings on the road since 2021, Valdez has had a 2.47 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 8.0 BB% and 21.0 K%. Moreover, they're dominant against righties, assuaging concerns about Toronto's lineup featuring many right-handed batters. Valdez has held righties to a .255 wOBA this year. Therefore, Valdez should pitch well tonight.
GPP Recommendation:
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. DET
Wheeler's strikeouts have been inconsistent this year, matching the quality of his pitching. Thus, his volatility fits better in tournaments than in cash games.
Fortunately, Wheeler has a high ceiling since he thrives in his home ballpark. In 238.1 innings at home since 2021, Wheeler has had a 2.38 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 5.2 BB% and 29.3 K%. The matchup can bring the best out of Wheeler tonight, too.
The Tigers are 29th in wRC+ (78) and have a 24.5 K% against right-handed pitchers in 2023. They're also tied for 26th in wRC+ (77) and have a 25.6 K% in the previous 14 days. So, as a result, the Phillies are -250, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. And since Wheeler's ceiling is sky-high tonight, he's an ideal pivot from Strider.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Angels have a dreamy blend of high-end talent, value and elite production against lefties. They're fourth in wRC+ (120) against left-handed pitchers this year. Furthermore, they're catching Drew Smyly at the right time. Smyly's production has slipped lately. In his last five starts spanning 27.1 innings, he's had a 4.28 ERA and 4.56 xFIP. And the matchup against Chicago's bullpen is also a plus. Cubs relievers have MLB's sixth-highest ERA (4.62) this season.
- In 246 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Mike Trout has had a .411 OBP, .232 ISO and 159 wRC+.
- Brandon Drury muscles up against southpaws. In 246 plate appearances against them since 2021, he's had a .286 ISO and 142 wRC+.
- Zach Neto ripped the cover off the ball against lefties in the minors and continued to hammer them in the majors. Through his first 33 plate appearances against lefties in The Show, he has a .364 OBP, .241 ISO and 146 wRC+.
- In 262 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Yan Gomes has had a .245 ISO and 129 wRC+.
- Trey Mancini is an above-average hitter against lefties. Since 2021, he's had a 115 wRC+ against them. Frankly, that's a good get at his small salary.
- Jo Adell inexplicably isn't in FD's player pool. He's filling in for Hunter Renfroe while on the paternity list. Adell has 18 homers, a .365 OBP, .316 ISO and 115 wRC+ in 242 plate appearances in Triple-A this year. Sadly, his 29.3 K% means there's still work to be done, and he's a risky selection.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Angels are chock full of excellent hitting options tonight. So, they're the backbone of DFS lineups. And Gomes and Mancini are useful punts.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
