Tonight’s DFS main slate is medium-sized. It has seven games and begins at 7:10 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggestions in this piece are narrowed to three pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts to fit the slate’s size.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is intriguing on tonight's slate. There are quality hurlers, but all have concerns, either because of their underlying stats or matchups. So, even the top options tonight have some risk. With that in mind, paying less than the salaries required for Nathan Eovaldi and Shohei Ohtani makes sense. Thankfully, the three pitchers on the table are exciting alternatives. Frankly, all three options have a case for use in all game types. However, the first two listed on the table are suggestions for cash games, and the third is highlighted for GPPs.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Marcus Stroman (CHC) vs. PIT
Stroman has pitched well this year, albeit with the aid of some luck. Per FanGraphs, in 14 starts spanning 85.2 innings, Stroman has a 2.42 ERA, 3.72 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 61.0 GB%, 9.2 BB%, 20.5 K% and 26.9 CSW%.
The righty has also been dialed in. Although, once again, he was helped by good fortune. Stroman has had a 1.26 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, 67.4 GB%, 9.0 BB%, 19.4 K% and 27.9 CSW% in his last five starts.
Eventually, Stroman won't remain as lucky. Nevertheless, the Pirates are an average matchup tonight. Pittsburgh is tied for 16th in wRC+ (97) against right-handed pitchers tonight. So, Stroman's rock-solid ERA estimators will do the trick against Pittsburgh's mediocre offense.
Sonny Gray (MIN) vs. DET
Gray hasn't struck many batters out lately. Yet, his entire body of work this year is consistently excellent. The veteran righty has allowed three runs or fewer in all 13 of his starts this year.
In addition, Gray has dominated at home since joining the Twins last year. In 109.2 innings at home since last year, Gray has had a 2.30 ERA, 3.12 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 7.7 BB% and 28.8 K%. He can dazzle the Twins fans tonight in a cupcake matchup.
The Tigers are tied for 28th in wRC+ (80) against righties and have a 24.3 K% against them this season. They're also 25th in wRC+ (67) and have a 27.7 K% in the previous 14 days. Furthermore, they're the worst offense on the road (68 wRC+) and have a 25.7 K% in those games.
Finally, the betting info cements Gray's case for usage in DFS lineups tonight. According to Betting Pros, the Twins are -210, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Cristian Javier (HOU) vs. WSH
Javier has twirled a 2.57 ERA in his last five starts, totaling 28.0 innings. Yet, the righty's 5.53 xFIP provides a reason for pause. So, Javier is a better risk in tournaments than in cash games.
Thankfully, Javier's excellence at home provides a reason to believe he can reach his ceiling tonight. In 197.2 innings at home since reaching the majors in 2020, Javier has a 2.55 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 9.5 BB% and 29.6 K%.
The matchup is decent, and the betting info is outstanding. The Nationals are 27th in wRC+ (83) against righties this year. Finally, the Astros are -220, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stack
The Braves destroy left-handed pitchers. They're second in wRC+ (139) and ISO (.248) against lefties in 2023. The Braves are also tied for ninth in wRC+ (109) at home this season. So, the Braves are a fun stack against any lefty at Truist Park. They're a downright dreamy stack against Kyle Freeland, though. The 30-year-old lefty's 3.91 ERA in 14 starts spanning 76.0 innings this season is markedly better than his 4.57 xERA and 4.76 xFIP. And Freeland's tiny 15.7 K% is likely to bite him in the butt against Atlanta's powerhouse lineup. In addition, Colorado's relievers have the eighth-highest ERA (4.53) in 2023. Therefore, Atlanta's offense has run-producing potential from start to finish tonight.
- In 391 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Austin Riley has had a .366 OBP, .256 ISO and 147 wRC+. He's also in good form. In the last 30 days, he's had five homers, a .330 OBP, .225 ISO and 121 wRC+ in 112 plate appearances.
- Ozzie Albies has tallied a .340 OBP, .260 ISO and 142 wRC+ in 335 plate appearances against lefties since 2021. Additionally, in 72 plate appearances against them this year, he has a .403 OBP, .324 ISO and 200 wRC+.
- Gary Sanchez has muscled up for a .222 ISO against lefties since 2021. He's also drilled six homers in just 54 plate appearances for the Padres in 2023.
- Unfortunately, Jose Abreu was ice cold to start the season. He's found his stroke lately. In 52 plate appearances this month, Abreu has three doubles, three homers and a .346 OBP.
- Jason Heyward has a .360 OBP, .250 ISO and 137 wRC+ against righties this year.
- In 430 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Carlos Correa has had a .395 OBP, .195 ISO and 147 wRC+. Additionally, he's on a six-game-hitting streak, ripping two doubles and four homers in 27 plate appearances.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves are the most exciting stack tonight. Gamers can stack them in full or use a few options from Atlanta while mixing in other partial stacks and one-off selections.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
