The Thursday MLB DFS main slate is a matinee slate, beginning at 1:07 pm ET. It’s also a small slate at DraftKings and FanDuel, featuring only four games. So, today’s primer has only two pitchers, one stack, core studs and values/punts.
The Thursday MLB DFS main slate is a matinee slate, beginning at 1:07 pm ET. It’s also a small slate at DraftKings and FanDuel, featuring only four games. So, today’s primer has only two pitchers, one stack, core studs and values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Max Scherzer was a reasonably tough cut and will be on a significant percentage of rosters on this afternoon's small slate. However, another righty is the top option in an excellent matchup. And the second pitcher on the table is an attractive pick at his bargain salary.
Pitcher Recommendations:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. MIL
Gausman can build on his ace numbers in a favorable matchup today. According to FanGraphs, Gausman has a 3.03 ERA, 3.29 xERA, 2.83 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 31.9 K% and 29.5 CSW% in 11 starts, totaling 68.1 innings this year.
And the Brewers are dreadful against righties and on the road. Milwaukee is 20th in wRC+ (94) against righties this year and punches out at a 23.8% clip. Additionally, they're tied for 24th in wRC+ (85) and have a 24.9 K% on the road in 2023. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Blue Jays are -195, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Thus, Gausman edges Scherzer for the top-pitcher honor on this small slate.
Joe Musgrove (SD) at MIA
Musgrove has bounced back since a disastrous start in Mexico. In four subsequent starts spanning 22.0 innings, he's had a 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.2 BB%, 22.4 K% and 26.0 CSW%. Musgrove's 4.55 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA in those turns weren't impressive. Nevertheless, the righty's 3.69 xERA in six starts this year is rock-solid.
The Marlins are a good matchup, and the betting info is decent. Miami is tied for 23rd in wRC+ (89) against righties in 2023, with a 23.7 K% against them. The Marlins are also tied for 18th in wRC+ (98) at home, where they've struck out in 23.5% of their plate appearances. And the Padres are -120, while the game's total is a non-threatening 8.5 runs. Therefore, Musgrove is a sweet pick at an affordable salary.
Top Lineup Stack
Arizona has a juicy implied total and a tasty matchup. Chase Anderson has been exceptionally lucky this year. The 35-year-old righty's 1.31 ERA is much lower than his 3.91 xERA and 5.11 xFIP. Furthermore, Anderson was destroyed for a 6.81 ERA and 4.92 xFIP in his previous 105.2 innings from 2020 through 2022. So, Anderson's lucky hot start shouldn't dissuade gamers from stacking the Diamondbacks. And Colorado's bullpen is a bottom-10 group, owning the eighth-highest ERA (4.40) in 2023. So, the Diamondbacks can erupt today.
- Corbin Carroll crushes righties. In his first 232 plate appearance against them in the majors, he's had a .375 OBP, .270 ISO and 150 wRC+. The speedy outfielder has also swiped 16 bases in 18 attempts this season, elevating his ceiling.
- Lourdes Gurriel is unloading on righties this year. In 139 plate appearances, he has a .345 OBP, .313 ISO and 151 wRC+.
- Francisco Alvarez is a beast in same-handed matchups. In 94 plate appearances against righties in his young career, he's had a .362 OBP, .365 ISO and 178 wRC+.
- Brett Baty is precisely an average hitter against righties since debuting in The Show last year. However, he's tearing the cover off the ball at home this year. In 53 plate appearances at Citi Field this season, he has a .415 OBP, .340 ISO and 205 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Diamondbacks are the top stack and the best source of hitters today. However, mini-stacking the Mets is also inviting.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.