After three straight days of massive MLB DFS main slates, tonight’s is small. It has five games and starts at 7:07 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested options in today’s primer are narrowed to three pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts to match the slate size.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
There's only one top-shelf pitcher on the slate. He'll be chalky. Still, he's the featured top-ranked pitcher and easily the most desirable choice. The other two pitchers featured on the table are the least undesirable of the available hurlers.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Max Scherzer (NYM) vs. MIL
According to FanGraphs, in Scherzer's last five starts spanning 30.0 innings, he has had a 4.50 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 2.4 BB%, 29.4 K% and 30.1 CSW%. The ERA wasn't good, but his xFIP suggested he was unlucky.
Scherzer is also a monster at home. In 86.0 innings at home since joining the Mets last year, he's had a 1.99 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 4.8 BB% and 29.3 K%. The veteran righty should continue his dominance in the Big Apple tonight in a superb matchup.
The Brewers are tied for 24th in wRC+ (87) and have a 25.0 K% versus righties this year. They're also 27th in wRC+ (72) and have a 27.4 K% in the previous 14 days. And Milwaukee is tied for 26th in wRC+ (81) and has a 25.2 K% on the road this season. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Mets are -184, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Scherzer is a must-use hurler in cash games. And even though he'll be chalky, his upside is worth taking a stab at in GPPs.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) at CHC
Walker has been the anti-Scherzer recently. In Walker's last five starts totaling 30.0 innings, he's had a 1.50 ERA. However, Walker's 4.08 xFIP was less encouraging. Still, the righty's 7.8 BB%, 24.3 K% and 0.83 WHIP were excellent marks during his heater.
Walker has an adequate matchup tonight. The Cubs are 18th in wRC+ (96) and have a 23.6 K% against righties in 2023. They're also tied for 15th in wRC +(101) and have a 23.3 K% at home. Sadly, the betting info is only a mixed bag. The Phillies are -115. However, the game's total (9.5 runs) is scary. Regardless, Walker is the best of a bad lot behind Scherzer, making him the top SP2 in cash games on DK.
GPP Recommendation:
J.P. France (HOU) at STL
France has pitched like a middle to back of rotation-caliber pitcher in his rookie campaign. In nine starts spanning 53.1 innings, he has a 3.54 ERA, 4.39 xERA, 4.60 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 8.0 BB%, 18.8 K% and 28.3 CSW%.
France's ho-hum numbers are fine. Yet, his pitch modeling is eye-catching. According to FanGraphs, he has a 105 Stuff+, 98 Location+ and 101 Pitching+. Moreover, he has four pitches with above-average Stuff+. Namely, he has 104, 109, 110 and 125 Stuff+ marks for his fastball, slider, cutter and curve. As a result, it makes sense to bet on France's stuff allowing him to continue to beat his ERA estimators.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Giants have a top-10 offense against righties and on the road. First, they're seventh in wRC+ (109) against right-handed pitchers this year. Second, they're fourth in wRC+ (113) on the road. The matchup is good, too. Chris Bassitt has a 4.32 ERA, 4.60 xERA and 4.63 xFIP. He's also coughed up 1.54 HR/9. Furthermore, Bassitt is entirely incompetent against lefties, coughing up a .370 OBP, .602 SLG and .408 wOBA to 192 of them this year. So, stacking San Francisco's lefties against him is exciting.
- In 152 plate appearances against righties this year, Joc Pederson has a .382 OBP, .244 ISO and 144 wRC+.
- Max Muncy has a .350 OBP, .297 ISO and 131 wRC+ in 180 plate appearances against righties this season.
- LaMonte Wade is a perfect fit for San Francisco's leadoff spot. In 234 plate appearances against righties this year, he has a .419 OBP, .191 ISO and 150 wRC+.
- In 167 plate appearances against righties in 2023, Jason Heyward has a .348 OBP, .236 ISO and 127 wRC+.
- Patrick Bailey is cooking with gasoline. In the last 30 days, he has had a .354 OBP, .221 ISO and 142 wRC+ in 83 plate appearances.
- Brandon Crawford was essentially an average hitter over the last 30 days, amassing a 101 wRC+. An average lefty at a tiny salary is an enticing option against Bassitt.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Giants are an excellent source of hitters tonight, offering upside and value. And while the Dodgers aren't included as a stack in this piece, they're a compelling offense to invest in at Coors Field tonight.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
