Today’s MLB DFS main slate is small and starts early. It has five games and starts at 1:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. So, today’s primer has two pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Today’s MLB DFS main slate is small and starts early. It has five games and starts at 1:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. So, today’s primer has two pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two of the AL Central's hurlers are the top pitchers on today's tiny slate. They can be used in all game types.
Recommendations:
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. BOS
Unfortunately, Ryan coughed up six runs in his most recent start. A deeper dive into his line is encouraging, though. According to FanGraphs, Ryan tossed 7.0 innings, allowed only seven baserunners, struck out seven and had his second-highest swinging-strike percentage (18.2 SwStr%) in 2023.
In 14 starts spanning 84.2 innings in 2023, Ryan has a 3.30 ERA, 2.45 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 4.5 BB%, 27.1 K% and 27.9 CSW%. He's also thrived at home in his career. In 135.1 innings at home in Ryan's career, he has a 3.46 ERA, 4.11 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 7.0 BB% and 27.0 K%.
The Red Sox are a potentially challenging matchup. Still, all of the pitchers on today's slate have blemishes. So, since Ryan is the best pitcher on the slate, rolling the dice on his talent makes sense.
Logan Allen (CLE) vs. OAK
Allen has been rock-solid in his rookie campaign. In 10 starts spanning 54.2 innings, he has a 3.95 ERA, 4.56 xERA, 4.18 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, 7.9 BB%, 22.0 K% and 27.2 CSW%. Obviously, the lefty's numbers aren't perfect.
Yet, they're good enough to tie up Oakland's below-average offense. The Athletics are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (97) and have a 22.8 K% against lefties in 2023. Finally, the betting info is excellent. According to Betting Pros, the Guardians are -182, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Top Lineup Stack
The Red Sox are using 29-year-old righty reliever Justin Garza as an opener and lefty Brandon Walter as the long reliever. The latter is making his big-league debut and has a 6.28 ERA and 4.61 xFIP in 61.2 innings in Triple-A this year. The Twins should hammer Boston's piggybacking combo. However, since Boston is using a righty to open for a lefty, there's a risk the Twins will lift some starters for pinch-hitters early in the contest. Otherwise, the Twins are a good bet to light up the scoreboard.
- In 348 plate appearances against lefties in his career, Fernando Tatis has 22 homers, a .414 OBP, .310 ISO and 172 wRC+.
- In 415 plate appearances at home with the Twins since joining them in 2022, Carlos Correa has had a .357 OBP, .184 ISO and 136 wRC+.
- In 473 plate appearances at home since 2021, Byron Buxton has had 33 homers, a .313 OBP, .292 ISO and 134 wRC+.
- Luis Matos is precisely the type of player to annoy and exploit Blake Snell's lousy control. In 249 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A this season, Matos had a 9.6 BB%, 8.0 K%, .415 OBP, .211 ISO and 147 wRC+. And in 29 plate appearances for the Giants, he has a 20.7 BB%, 3.4 K%, .448 OBP and 135 wRC+.
- In 176 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show last year, Joey Meneses has a .364 OBP, .188 ISO and 140 wRC+.
- In 67 plate appearances this year, Royce Lewis has three homers, a .328 OBP and 124 wRC+.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
It's unclear what Minnesota's lineup will look like today. However, they should rake, and gamers are encouraged to stack them. Correa, Buxton and Lewis are their most appealing hitters.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
