MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (6/18)

The Saturday slate was challenging at times, but we’re satisfied with the results. We still made some cash, and we will send that bankroll into this Sunday card. Playing on Sundays is one of my favorite days because it’s one of the only times when almost every lineup is in at the same time. It’s frustrating to wait for lineups to come out, and having that security makes things so much simpler. We also get some bizarre lineups on Sundays because it’s a good time to rest players, which opens up even more value.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

We didn’t have too many big-name pitchers in yesterday’s article, but that’s not the case today. Limiting it to just four guys was challenging, but we have four arms in some fantastic spots. With that said, most of these guys have struggled at times this season, but they’re all too talented to avoid in magical matchups like these. With that in mind, let’s get started with the ace who has the best matchup on the slate!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Zack Wheeler (PHI) at OAK

It’s easy to stack against Oakland on every slate. They have the worst pitching staff in baseball and the worst lineup. They rank last in almost every offensive category since the start of last season. That’s bad news against a stud like Wheeler, who’s got a 2.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last three years. He’s also got a 10.1 K/9 rate and should slice right through this atrocious A’s lineup.

Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. COL

Uncle Charlie is not as dominant as he once was, but he’s still got some nasty stuff. Outside of one disaster start against the Dodgers, Morton has maintained a 3.09 ERA and 10.3 K/9 rate across his other 12 starts. A home matchup with Colorado couldn’t be better either, with the Rockies ranked last in almost every offensive statistic on the road over the last three years. That has Morton entering this matchup as a -300 favorite!

GPP Recommendations:

Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. PIT

The 4.73 ERA is unsightly for Peralta, but this guy will drop that number below 4.00 in no time. He had a 3.08 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in the two years prior and still has a 9.6 K/9 rate this year. A home matchup with Pittsburgh is the best part of this, with the Pirates ranked 28th in runs scored over the last month while sitting 29th in K rate for the year. In his three starts against them last year, Peralta allowed just three total runs,

Louie Varland (MIN) vs. DET

The 4.70 ERA from Varland might scare you, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. This kid posted a 2.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 38 percent K rate throughout his Triple-A career. We’ve also seen him allow four runs or fewer in all but one start, with a terrifying Tampa game trouncing his season averages. A matchup with Detroit is the best way to get him back on track, with the Tigers ranked bottom-five in OBP, OPS, runs scored, and xwOBA. We also don’t mind that Louie V will be a -210 favorite in this spot!

Top Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves (vs. Chase Anderson)

• Home (Truist Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -300

We had Atlanta in here against the Rockies yesterday, and they’ll be the top choice whenever they face Colorado. The Rockies rank 29th or 30th in ERA, WHIP, and xwOBA, while Atlanta is a Top-5 offense in runs scored, OBP, and home runs. Chase Anderson has been Colorado’s best pitcher but is due for some negative regression when evaluating his 6.81 ERA and 1.50 WHIP between 2020 and 2022.

Houston Astros (vs. Luke Weaver)

• Home (Minute Maid Park)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/HOU -150

The Astros have struggled without Yordan Alvarez, but a matchup with Luke Weaver should get them going. The Reds righty has a 6.23 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this year after amassing a 6.56 ERA and 1.82 WHIP last year. Those horrific numbers have Houston projected to score five runs, and many of their bats are great values with the way they’ve been struggling.

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Zack Greinke)

• Road (Kauffman Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/LAA -130

Greinke has been throwing 85 MPH meatballs for a few years now. He’s got a 4.65 ERA this year, his worst total since his rookie season. It’s inevitable for a 40-year-old to fall apart, and facing a lineup with studs like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani won’t lower that ERA. When he faced the Angels earlier in the year, he allowed four runs across five ugly innings.

Core Studs

• J-Ram got off to a rough start this season, but we’re encouraged with recent results. The perennial All-Star has a .553 OBP and 1.582 OPS across his last eight outings. That’s one of the best stretches from any player all season, and we love that he’s on his more favorable left side against a pitcher with a 5.46 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
• Acuna has been the best player in fantasy throughout his career, and he’s doing it once again. He’s leading all position players with 12.1 DraftKings points per game. Ronald’s power-speed combo allows him to go off every night, especially since he bats atop one of the best lineups in baseball. If we want to stack against the Rockies, Acuna should be the key piece.
• Ohtani is the hottest hitter in the league right now. The pitcher/hitter has homered eight times over his last 11 games, generating a 1.688 OPS across his last 13 games in total. That’s a truly ridiculous stretch, and we can’t fade him against a soft tosser like Greinke.
• The Brewers have been a disappointment this season, but it’s no fault of Yelich. This former MVP candidate has been crushing all season, providing a .434 OBP and .918 OPS across his last 17 games. He’s also got 16 steals this season and has recaptured his status as one of the best outfielders in fantasy. Most of that damage has come against right-handers, which is terrible news for Luis Ortiz and his 4.64 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.
• Castellanos is also amid a bounce-back season in Philly. This stud is always sitting around .300, and he’s currently tallying a .315 AVG, .486 SLG, and .851 OPS this year. He also gets the benefit of facing the worst pitching staff in baseball, which is terrifying since Philly is regularly scoring double-digit runs in every game right now.

Value Plays/Punts

• Hernandez has been one of the sneakiest options in fantasy throughout his career, but a nightmarish start to the year plummeted his salary. We’re willing to take a gamble on him because Teo is starting to get hot. Over his last 11 games, Hernandez has a .435 OBP and 1.162 OPS. That’s the stud we’ve seen with Teo totaling 57 home runs across the previous two years.
• Abrey was the worst hitter in baseball through two months, but this stud is starting to get going. He’s always been a good bet to provide a .300 AVG, .400 OBP, .500 SLG, and .900 OPS every year, and that’s what we’ve seen over recent weeks. Over the last seven games. Abreu has accrued a 1.108 OPS. He’s still in the heart of this dangerous Astros lineup and should go off against Weaver’s woeful numbers.
• Donovan has been the leadoff hitter in St. Louis since Lars Nootbaar went down, and it’s done wonders for his fantasy value. BD has a .379 OBP since the start of last season, generating a .424 OBP and .838 OPS across his last seven n games. We also like Donovan much more against righties, which is incredible since he faces Carlos Carrasco‘s 5.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
• Ozuna has been rolling for a month now. The 2020 MVP candidate has been batting behind all of these elite bats in Atlanta, accumulating a .379 OBP, .615 SLG, and .995 OPS over his last 36 games. He’s also had his way with Chase Anderson, compiling a .915 OPS in 23 at-bats against the journeyman in Colorado.
• Gurriel is our BvP play of the day. This veteran has struggled at times this year, but he’s crushed Patrick Corbin over recent years. In 11 at-bats against PC, Gurriel has a .546 OBP, .909 SLG, and 1.455 OPS. That’s no surprise since Gurriel gets the platoon advantage from the right side, while Corbin has collected a 5.65 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last four seasons.

Hitter Strategy

You know what we will do here if you read yesterday’s article. We talked about how it was impossible to fade the Braves and Phillies because they have the two best matchups in baseball. That’s been on full display this week, averaging 8.4 runs over their last five games, while Philly is averaging 6.9 runs across their last seven outings. Getting to face the Rockies and A’s makes them the easiest stack out there, and getting a small piece of that will be critical. Some of the other teams we like include the Twins, Reds, Brewers, Astros, and Guardians. There’s so much value between all of these teams that it should be easy to squeeze in the expensive pitchers mentioned above.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.