Monday night’s MLB DFS slate is medium-sized, featuring seven games. The action starts at 6:40 pm ET. Today’s DFS primer has a slate-appropriate number of suggested options, highlighting three pitchers, two stacks, three core studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top-ranked pitcher is a righty with rock-solid numbers at home in recent years and better ERA estimators than his ERA this year. An underpriced lefty follows him in a good matchup. The final suggestion is a debuting rookie in an excellent matchup.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. DET
Nola has struggled with homers and stranding baserunners this year. Thus, per FanGraphs, he has a 4.70 ERA but a more palatable 3.80 xERA and 4.24 xFIP in 12 starts totaling 74.2 innings this year. Fortunately, Nola is at home tonight in a get-right matchup.
In 204.1 innings at home since 2021, Nola has had a 3.70 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 4.3 BB% and 30.5 K%. And the Tigers are bad by any split. First, they're 26th in wRC+ (81) against right-handed pitchers this year. Second, they're tied for 29th in wRC+ (76) on the road in 2023. So, per Betting Pros, the Phillies are -230, elevating Nola to the top of the heap among pitchers tonight.
Braxton Garrett (MIA) vs. KC
Garrett is an ideal SP2 in cash games at DK. He's also an appealing GPP option at FD. The young lefty is in good form. In his last five starts, he's had a 2.67 ERA, 2.74 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 6.6 BB%, 30.2 K% and 33.6 CSW% in 27.0 innings. Sadly, he's underperformed his xFIP at home this year. Still, in 91.0 innings at home since debuting in The Show in 2020, Garrett has a 3.96 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, 9.9 BB% and 26.2 K%.
Garrett can stay hot tonight by carving up Kansas City's lowly lineup. The Royals are tied for 29th in wRC+ (76) on the road this year. Furthermore, they're tied for 17th in wRC+ (96) over the last 14 days, striking out at an exploitable 25.9% clip. Finally, the Marlins are -175, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. MIL
Abbott has a cushy matchup in his big-league debut. He also enters tonight in good form. First, the Brewers are 29th in wRC+ (74) and have a jaw-dropping 29.3 K% against lefties this year. Second, they're 27th in wRC+ (76) and have had a 24.6 K% in the previous 14 days. Third, the Brewers are tied for 25th in wRC+ (85) and have had a 24.4 K% on the road this year.
As for Abbott's good form, he's cruising. In his three most recent starts in Triple-A, he's had a 1.47 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.7 BB% and 34.7 K%. Abbott is also stretched out. In his last two starts, he's thrown 97 and 86 pitches. Therefore, Abbott shouldn't face a restrictive pitch limit. Still, Abbott is risky since this is his first start in the majors, and he had a 4.75 ERA in Double-A in 2022. The risk makes Abbott a better fit in tournaments than cash games.
Top Lineup Stacks
Brandon Bielak is thoroughly overperforming his underlying stats. The righty's 3.19 ERA in 31.0 innings this season is markedly lower than his 5.48 xERA and 4.28 xFIP. Regression will eventually hit, and the Blue Jays can start the process tonight. Additionally, Bielak has coughed up a .351 OBP, .557 SLG and .387 wOBA to righties this year. So, Toronto's righties are the most appealing options for the stack.
- Home (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/TEX -130
Father Time is undefeated and might be getting the better of Adam Wainwright in his age-41 campaign. In five starts lasting 26.1 innings this year, Waino has a 6.15 ERA, 6.47 xERA, 5.51 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, 12.9 K% and 5.9 SwStr%. Wainwright's inability to miss bats could result in a messy effort tonight against the Rangers. Texas is tied for second in wRC+ (116) against righties this year. They're also tied for second in wRC+ (129) over the last 14 days. Moreover, the Rangers are second in wRC+ (139) at home this season.
- In 81 plate appearances against righties this year, Corey Seager has a .407 OBP, .246 ISO and 170 wRC+.
- Matt Chapman has excelled at home in same-handed matchups since joining the Blue Jays in a trade before the 2022 season. In 331 plate appearances against righties at Rogers Centre since 2022, Chapman has had a .335 OBP, .238 ISO and 128 wRC+.
- In 377 plate appearances against righties since 2022, Jake Fraley has had a .371 OBP, .204 ISO and 131 wRC+.
- In 189 plate appearances in Rodolfo Castro's career against lefties, he's had 13 homers, a .370 OBP, .314 ISO and 166 wRC+.
- In 316 plate appearances against righties at home in Alejandro Kirk's career, he's had a .361 OBP, .180 ISO and 127 wRC+.
- In 295 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Connor Joe has had a .373 OBP, .198 ISO and 124 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
Gamers in cash games shouldn't fully stack either of the suggested lineups. Instead, grabbing pieces from the Blue Jays and Rangers while complementing them with options such as Fraley, Castro and Joe is better. Building entire stacks from Toronto's and Texas's lineups is better reserved for GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
