Tonight’s main slate is small-to-medium sized. It has seven games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The picks for the moderately sized slate in today’s primer are narrowed to three pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The first and second-ranked pitchers are essentially 1A and 1B. Ultimately, the scale tilted toward the first pitcher on the table because of the salary discount relative to the second hurler at FD. The third pitcher is the ideal SP2 at DK. The lefty is also a high-upside option in GPPs at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. NYM
Brown is pitching well in his first full season in the majors. He's also in good form. According to FanGraphs, in his last five starts spanning 30.2 innings, he's had a 3.23 ERA, 2.58 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 7.6 BB%, 30.3 K%, 61.6 GB% and 28.0 CSW%.
Brown has also excelled at home since reaching the majors for a cup of coffee last season. In 44.0 innings at home, Brown has a 2.45 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 10.2 BB% and 26.6 K%. The Mets are an average matchup. However, they've struck out in 24.5% of their plate appearances in the last 14 days. In addition, per Betting Pros, the Astros are -130, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs.
James Paxton (BOS) at MIN
Paxton has a 3.09 ERA, 3.34 xERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.5 BB%, 33.1 K% and 31.4 CSW% in 32.0 innings in six starts this year. The veteran lefty has allowed fewer than two runs in five starts, struck out at least five in all his turns and fanned at least eight batters four times, including in his previous three starts.
Paxton's ability to strike out batters at an elite clip should be enhanced tonight against Minnesota's punchout-prone lineup. The Twins have struck out at an eye-popping 27.6 K% against southpaws in 2023. Additionally, they have the third-lowest wRC+ (85) against lefties. So, while the Red Sox are slight underdogs (+110), Paxton can provide DFS value by piling up strikeouts, even if he doesn't earn a win. And the game's total of 8.0 runs is also good for Paxton's DFS outlook.
GPP Recommendation:
Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. ARI
In Burnes's last five starts totaling 32.0 innings, he's had a 3.38 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 7.8 BB%, 28.9 K% and 30.2 K%. He also succeeds at home. In 239.1 innings at home since 2021, Burnes has had a 3.01 ERA, 2.72 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 6.3 BB% and 32.5 K%.
Sadly for Burnes, he has an imposing matchup tonight. The Diamondbacks are tied for seventh in wRC+ (109) against righties. Nevertheless, the betting info is excellent. The Brewers are -130, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. And since Burnes is an elite starter at his best, his ceiling is worth chasing in GPPs, even in a suboptimal matchup.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Reds have explosive upside tonight against a punching-bag starter and dreadful bullpen. In 14 starts this season, Austin Gomber has a 7.29 ERA, 7.20 xERA and 5.11 xFIP. Moreover, he's allowed 2.16 HR/9. Gomber's inability to keep the ball in the yard will be exacerbated at MLB's most homer-friendly ballpark. And, again, Colorado's bullpen stinks. Their relievers have the sixth-highest ERA (4.54) in 2023. The Reds will undoubtedly be chalky tonight. Still, their upside is undeniable.
- Home (PNC Park)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/PIT EVEN
Drew Smyly is stumbling into tonight's start against the Pirates. He's had a 5.60 ERA and 5.47 xFIP in his last five starts. Smyly has also yielded 1.98 HR/9 in those contests. Chicago's bullpen is also a good matchup for Pittsburgh's offense. The Cubs have the seventh-highest bullpen ERA (4.44). Pittsburgh's offense doesn't have star power, but it can shine tonight against the Cubs.
- In 99 plate appearances against lefties since debuting last year, Spencer Steer has had a .354 OBP, .253 ISO and 132 wRC+.
- Matt McLain has a .382 OBP, .294 ISO and 179 wRC+ in his first 34 plate appearances against lefties in the bigs.
- In 439 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Andrew McCutchen has had a .355 OBP, .269 ISO and 136 wRC+.
- In 202 plate appearances against lefties in the majors, Rodolfo Castro has had a .361 OBP, .313 ISO and 161 wRC+.
- Jake Burger has amassed a .336 OBP, .320 ISO and 151 wRC+ in 116 plate appearances against lefties in The Show.
- In 144 plate appearances against lefties at home since 2020, Tyler Stephenson has had a .396 OBP and 121 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Reds are the cream of the crop for hitters tonight. They're an alluring stack in all game types. However, the Pirates have enticing values to mini-stack and are an intriguing full-stack choice in GPPs.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
