The Monday night MLB DFS slate is medium-sized, featuring seven games. It begins at 7:10 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The picks in the primer are narrowed to three pitchers, two stacks, three core studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Tonight's pitching isn't flawless or deep. Still, the two lefties on the table have high ceilings and good matchups, making them the top two options on the slate. The third selection is less desirable, but his ERA estimators lately suggest he's worth a dice roll in GPPs in a plus matchup.
Cash Game Recommendations:
James Paxton (BOS) vs. COL
Paxton is pitching well this year. According to FanGraphs, in five starts spanning 26.0 innings, he's had a 3.81 ERA, 3.98 xERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 8.3 BB%, 33.0 K% and 31.1 CSW%. Furthermore, he's struck out at least five batters in every start, fanned at least eight three times and allowed two runs or less four times.
The matchup is excellent for another stellar showing tonight. First, the Rockies are last in wRC+ (64) and have a 25.9 K% against lefties this year. Second, they're 27th in wRC+ (75) and have a 25.4 K% in the previous 14 days. Third, the Rockies are 28th in wRC+ (77) and have a 25.4 K% on the road in 2023. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Red Sox are -250.
Jesus Luzardo (MIA) at SEA
Luzardo is following up a breakout in 2022 with another outstanding season in 2023. In 13 starts totaling 73.2 innings, he has a 3.79 ERA, 3.55 xERA, 3.63 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, 6.6 BB%, 28.2 K% and 29.9 K%.
Thankfully, Luzardo isn't simply benefiting from pitching at a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Instead, in 84.1 innings on the road since last year, he's had a 3.42 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 8.3 BB% and 30.1 K%.
A matchup against Seattle elevates Luzardo's ceiling tonight. The Mariners are tied for 20th in wRC+ (98) and have a 26.7 K% against lefties in 2023. In addition, they're in a funk. In the last 14 days, the Mariners are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (87) and have a 27.5 K% in the last 14 days. And while the Marlins are +115, the game's total of 7.5 runs is ideal for Luzardo's outlook.
GPP Recommendation:
Luke Weaver (CIN) at KC
Using Weaver in DFS lineups isn't an easy pill to swallow. The 29-year-old righty has a 6.27 ERA, and his 4.50 xERA and 4.22 xFIP this season aren't good, either. However, in Weaver's last five games, his 3.70 xFIP is more palatable, albeit with an ugly 5.33 ERA. He also had a useful 22.7 K% in those starts.
Perhaps, a cupcake matchup like the Royals can help him pitch closer to his recent ERA estimators. First, the Royals are tied for 29th in wRC+ (78) and have a 24.8 K% against right-handed pitchers this season. Second, they're 28th in wRC+ (71) and have a 25.8 K% in the last 14 days. Third, the Royals are tied for 25th in wRC+(90) at home, despite the hitter-friendly conditions. Thus, Weaver is a matchup-driven suggestion as an SP2 at DK for his affordable salary. But it's not worth the savings at FD to use him.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Red Sox have raked at home this year, taking full advantage of their hitter-friendly conditions. Boston is fifth in wRC+ (120) at home this season. They should continue their excellence at home in a cushy matchup tonight. Connor Seabold has been tattooed for a 5.10 ERA, 4.29 xERA, 5.56 xFIP and 1.32 HR/9 in 47.2 innings this season. Further, Colorado's relievers have the seventh-highest ERA (4.53) in 2023. As a result, the Red Sox can smash from start to finish.
- Road (Oakland Coliseum)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/TB -240
James Kaprielian has a grotesque 7.21 ERA in 71.0 innings in 2023. He hasn't been entirely unlucky, either. The righty's 5.56 xERA and 6.18 xFIP are desirable numbers to stack against. Oakland's bullpen is also a sweet matchup for the Rays. Oakland's relievers have the highest ERA (6.00) this year, nearly an entire run higher than the second-highest mark (5.01). Fortunately, the Rays are built to punish Kaprielian and Oakland's bullpen. In fact, they're first in wRC+ (126) against righties this season. They also lead MLB in wRC+ (121) on the road this year. So, their ceiling is immense.
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the ground running in his big-league debut. In 27 plate appearances, he has one homer, three stolen bases, a .481 OBP, .273 ISO and 196 wRC+. The dynamic rookie can put on a show against Zack Greinke tonight. This year, the veteran righty has allowed a .544 SLG and .373 wOBA to left-handed batters.
- Josh Lowe is breaking out this year. And he has a mouthwatering matchup tonight. In 181 plate appearances against righties this year, Lowe has 10 homers, a .343 OBP, .253 ISO and 153 wRC+. Conversely, Kaprielian has coughed up a .417 OBP, .600 SLG and .430 wOBA to 98 lefties this year.
- Josh Jung is a nightmare for lefties. In 99 plate appearances against southpaws in his young career, he has had eight homers, a .343 OBP, .319 ISO and 169 wRC+. The slugging third baseman can tee off on Tyler Anderson. The veteran lefty has ceded a .509 SLG and .372 wOBA to 200 right-handed batters this season.
- Luke Raley is a bargain piece of left-handed exposure to Kaprielian. Beyond the cushy matchup and Raley's cap-friendly salary, he's hammered righties this year. In 151 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, he has nine homers, a .351 OBP and 157 wRC+.
- Adam Duvall is a sweet sub-$3,000 power source on FD. He's had a .250 ISO and 109 wRC+ against righties since 2021.
- Justin Turner is a lineup-spot-driven punt, hitting third for the Red Sox.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Red Sox and Rays have a handful of intriguing hitters and are the best stacks tonight. Yet, De La Cruz and Jung are exciting one-off options, too.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
