Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has six games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Since it’s a small slate, today’s primer has three pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top pitcher tonight has an absurd strikeout ceiling. The second pitcher hasn't been consistent this year. Nevertheless, his pitch modeling and matchup are encouraging. The final pitcher on the table is in excellent form and excels at home.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. MIN
Strider has served up homers at an alarming rate lately. According to FanGraphs, he's allowed 2.33 HR/9 in his last five starts. Still, Strider had a 3.56 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 7.8 BB%, 33.9 K% and 32.2 CSW% in those turns.
The young righty can strike out batters in bunches tonight. First, the Twins have a 27.3 K% against righties this year. Second, they've had a 27.9 K% in the previous 14 days. Third, they have a 27.5 K% on the road this year. Additionally, they're 24th in wRC+ (87) on the road in 2023. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Braves are -190, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. So, Strider's strikeout ability and the matchup give him a high floor and ceiling.
Reid Detmers (LAA) vs. CWS
Detmers is on a roll entering tonight. In his last five starts spanning 28.2 innings, he's had a 2.83 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 8.3 BB%, 25.8 K% and 26.9 CSW%. The lefty is also better at home than on the road. In 121.0 innings at home in his career, Detmers has a 3.64 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 8.3 BB% and 25.7 K%.
He should enjoy a matchup against the White Sox tonight. Chicago is tied for 20th in wRC+ (97) and has a 23.0 K% against lefties this year. They're also tied for 24th in wRC+ (87) and have a 24.7 K% in the last 14 days. And the White Sox are 28th in wRC+ (79) and have a 24.0 K% on the road in 2023. The betting info is also decent. The Angels are -135, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Thus, Detmers is underpriced at both DFS outlets tonight, making him the ideal SP2 in cash games at DK and a superb GPP option at FD.
GPP Recommendation:
Justin Verlander (NYM) vs. MIL
Verlander's surface stats have left much to be desired this season. In nine starts totaling 52.0 innings, he has a 4.50 ERA, 3.88 xERA, 4.29 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 20.5 K% and 23.8 CSW%. Fortunately, Verlander has flashed his excellence a few times this year.
Moreover, Verlander's pitch modeling and matchup are good. According to FanGraphs, Verlander has a 106 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 102 Pitching+ this year. And the Brewers are a tasty cupcake for him to devour tonight. Milwaukee is 25th in wRC+ (87) and has a 25.0 K% against righties this year. They're also 27th in wRC+ (76) and have a 28.1 K% in the last 14 days. And the Brewers are tied for 26th in wRC+ (81) and have a 25.3 K% on the road this season.
Thankfully, the betting info suggests the oddsmakers and bettors expect a good showing from Verlander and the Mets. New York is a -190 favorite, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Therefore, taking a shot on Verlander in GPPs is appealing.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rangers have a juggernaut offense. They're third in wRC+ (130) against lefties this year, 11th in wRC+ (110) in the last 14 days and second in wRC+ (135) at home this year. They're a handful for even MLB's best southpaws, and Matthew Boyd isn't anywhere near that caliber pitcher. In 14 starts this year, the 32-year-old lefty has a 5.37 ERA, 4.02 xERA and 4.35 xFIP. He hasn't had many answers for right-handed batters, either. The 238 righties who faced Boyd in 2023 have a .332 OBP and .340 wOBA.
- Home (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SEA -260
The Mariners are a midpack offense. They're 15th in wRC+ (98) against righties this year, 12th in wRC+ (109) over the last 14 days and 15th in wRC+ (102) at home this season. Seattle can outplay their mediocre numbers in an excellent matchup tonight. In 15 starts spanning 76.0 in 2023, Trevor Williams has a 4.14 ERA, 5.23 xERA and 4.85 xFIP. The veteran righty has also coughed up 1.66 HR/9. And Williams has ceded a .328 wOBA to righties and a .350 wOBA to lefties this season. So, Seattle's lefties and righties can rough up Williams. Finally, Washington's relievers are tied for the second-highest ERA (4.84) this season.
- In 113 plate appearances against lefties since reaching the majors last year, Josh Jung has a .345 OBP, .315 ISO and 169 wRC+.
- Teoscar Hernandez is dialed in at the dish. In 103 plate appearances in the last 30 days, he has a .350 OBP, .232 ISO, 144 wRC+, five homers and two stolen bases.
- In 185 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Mitch Garver has had a .341 OBP, .278 ISO and 139 wRC+.
- In 118 plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show last year, Ezequiel Duran has a .331 OBP, .239 ISO and 133 wRC+.
- J.P. Crawford has a .386 OBP, .141 ISO and 131 wRC+ against righties this year. His value is also elevated by hitting atop Seattle's batting order.
- In 246 plate appearances against righties this season, Ty France has a .333 OBP and 107 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Rangers have the most attractive hitters across game types tonight. However, fully stacking them in cash games is challenging around Strider's sizable salary. Fortunately, they have cheap options. In addition, the Mariners have cap-friendly choices, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
