The work week ends with a massive MLB DFS slate. It features 13 games, starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s DFS primer narrows the colossal player pool to four suggested pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The suggested pitchers tonight have a wide variety of salaries. The top option has a matchup against another ace. The second choice has an ideal matchup and enters the contest in good form. The third-ranked pitcher is slightly overpriced on FD. However, his salary could enhance his appeal in tournaments if it depresses the percentage of rosters he's on. Finally, a volatile lefty has a perfect matchup to coax a fantasy-friendly start from him.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. SEA
Ohtani hasn't been perfect lately, evidenced by his 4.22 ERA in his last five starts. However, per FanGraphs, he had a 3.19 xFIP in those starts. So, Ohtani was rather unlucky.
The ace is also amazing at home. According to FanGraphs, in 235.0 innings at home in his career, he's had a 2.07 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 8.2 BB% and 32.6 K%.
The matchup is also appealing. The Mariners are 18th in wRC+ (96) and have a 25.7 K% against righties this year. So, in a battle of aces, per Betting Pros, the Angels are -125, and the game's total is predictably a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Tyler Wells (BAL) vs. KC
Wells is blossoming this year and cruising into tonight. In his last five starts spanning 28.1 innings, Wells has had a 3.49 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, 34.5 K% and 30.7 CSW%.
The righty should stay hot in a Charmin-soft matchup. The Royals are tied for 28th in wRC+ (79)and have a 24.9 K% against righties this year. They've also struggled lately, ranking 23rd in wRC+ (87) and striking out in 26.1% of their plate appearances in the previous 14 days.
The betting info is another check in the pros column for using Wells tonight. The Orioles are -180, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Wells is a desirable pick in all game types at both providers.
GPP Recommendations:
Marcus Stroman (CHC) at SF
Sure, Stroman's 2.39 ERA this year is overperforming his ERA estimators, such as his 3.69 xERA and 3.61 xFIP. Still, his ERA estimators are rock-solid, and Stroman is a workhorse, chewing up 79.0 innings in his 13 starts.
The righty is also catching the Giants at the optimal time. The Giants have a top-five offense against righties. Yet, they might need a game to adjust after their series at Coors Field. The Giants also strike out in 25.7% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, enhancing Stroman's strikeout potential and appeal in tournaments. Finally, while the Cubs have even betting odds, the game's total of 7.5 runs supports taking a shot in tournaments with Stroman.
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) vs. MIN
Slotting Kikuchi into DFS lineups isn't a comfortable feeling. He has a 6.08 ERA in his last five starts, illustrating the reason for the discomfort. And his 4.40 ERA, 5.40 xERA and 4.39 xFIP in 12 starts this season also provide reasons for pause.
Yet, the lefty is a matchup-driven suggestion with strikeout potential. The Twins are tied for 24th in wRC+ (92) and have an eye-popping 27.3 K% against left-handed pitchers this season. Kikuchi has a 22.9 K% this year, slightly above the league average (22.8 K%). He's struck out at least six batters five times this season. Kikuchi could blow his golden opportunity tonight, but he can outperform his value salary if he makes the most of his excellent matchup.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Padres open their series at Coors Field with a mouthwatering matchup. Austin Gomber has a 6.99 ERA, 7.24 xERA and 5.11 xFIP in 12 starts this year. Gomber has also served up 2.06 HR/9. The Padres should drill him. And they should keep raking when he hands the ball off to Colorado's dreadful bullpen. Rockies relievers have the seventh-highest ERA (4.58) this year. The only knock on the Padres is they'll likely be chalky. So, gamers shouldn't go overboard chasing the chalk in tournaments. Instead, grabbing a one-off or partially stacking the Friars is more appealing in GPPs.
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -210
The Braves exploded for 13 runs in a 23-run slugfest against the Mets last night, illustrating the offensive potential at Truist Park. Hopefully, Atlanta left some runs in the holster to fire up tonight. They have an above-average offense against righties and a matchup against a pitcher due for regression and a lousy bullpen. Josiah Gray's 3.09 ERA is markedly lower than his 4.48 xERA, 4.96 xFIP and 5.10 SIERA. Gray's undesirable numbers don't end with his ERA estimators. He has an 11.4 BB% and 19.0 K%, both worse than the league averages of an 8.8 BB% and 22.8 K%. And, like the Padres facing the Rockies, the Braves can benefit from also facing an ineffective bullpen. Washington's relievers have the third-highest ERA (4.89) in 2023.
- Home (Amerian Family Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/MIL -235
Sadly, Milwaukee's stack isn't as straightforward as the first two featured options. The A's are using a left-handed opener before struggling rookie righty Luis Medina is the bulk reliever. Medina's been smashed for an 8.19 ERA, 6.51 xERA, 4.81 xFIP and 3.03 HR/9 in 29.2 innings this year. Opener Sam Moll has a 4.57 ERA, 3.34 xERA and 4.37 xFIP in 21.2 innings this year (all in relief). He's not an imposing matchup, but Oakland's decision to use a lefty opener and righty bulk reliever isn't ideal for maximizing the platoon advantage for some of Milwaukee's hitters.
- In 400 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Manny Machado has had a .368 OBP, .200 ISO and 132 wRC+. He'll get a lift from hitting at Coors Field and hitting in the heart of San Diego's lineup, too.
- Matt Olson has crushed righties this year. In 199 plate appearances, he has a .392 OBP, .329 ISO and 157 wRC+.
- Gary Sanchez has raked in his short time with the Padres. He has four homers, a .375 OBP, .483 ISO and 210 wRC+ in 32 plate appearances for San Diego.
- Marcell Ozuna is in good form. In his last 86 plate appearances over the past 30 days, he has had five homers, a .372 OBP, .250 ISO and 154 wRC+.
- Brent Rooker has seven homers, a .338 OBP, .215 ISO and 128 wRC+ in 154 plate appearances against righties in 2023. He's been streaky and might be heating up again, snapping a homer drought with a tater on June 6 and recording a .333 OBP, .200 ISO and 132 wRC+ in his last 27 plate appearances.
- In the last 30 days, Joey Wiemer has had five homers, four stolen bases, a .256 ISO and 113 wRC+ in 86 plate appearances. He also kills lefties. So, while he's listed as the eighth hitter on the table for Milwaukee's projected lineup, a cunning bump to the top of the order to counteract the lefty opener would elevate Wiemer's DFS value.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Padres are the safest source of hitters tonight. The Brewers are a fun stack for adventurous gamers playing in GPPs. And the Braves are a happy medium, having a compelling case for use in all game types.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
