Per usual, Friday’s MLB DFS slate is vast. It has 13 games and begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Many aces and fringe aces are toeing the slab tonight. Today’s DFS primer will sift through them for the best choices and navigate around them for the top stacks, core studs and values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The margin is narrow between the top hurler and the second pitcher on the table. However, the betting information and not facing Shohei Ohtani tilted the scales toward the top option. The third and fourth-ranked pitchers have compelling cases as SP2s at DK. They're also high-upside picks in tournaments at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Logan Webb (SF) vs. BAL
Webb's a workhorse in good form. According to FanGraphs, he's had a 1.30 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 6.7 BB%, 24.6 K%, 61.1 GB% and 30.4 CSW% in his last five starts, totaling 34.2 innings. Additionally, Webb has spun seven consecutive quality starts.
The 26-year-old righty also has an impressive track record at home. In 205.0 innings at home since 2021, he's had a 2.37 ERA, 2.74 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 5.7 BB% and 25.5 K%. Webb has a midpack matchup, and Cedric Mullins' absence from Baltimore's lineup makes them less threatening. Finally, the betting info is outstanding. According to Betting Pros, the Giants are -160, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs.
Jon Gray (TEX) vs. SEA
Gray has notably outpitched his ERA estimators. Sadly, his 2.81 ERA in 10 starts spanning 57.2 innings is much lower than his 4.73 xERA and 4.58 xFIP. Still, he's pitched better lately, albeit continuing to overperform. In his last five starts, he had a 1.95 ERA and 4.02 xFIP in 32.1 innings. The veteran righty's 4.8 BB%, 23.2 K% and 0.93 WHIP during those starts were excellent, though.
The matchup is decent, too. The Mariners are tied for 15th in wRC+ (99) against righties this year. However, they've struck out in 25.4% of their plate appearances against them. Seattle's strikeout rate has also climbed to 26.3% over the last 14 days. Thus, Gray has significant strikeout potential tonight. As a result, he's the best SP2 in cash games at DK and a high-ceiling option at FD.
GPP Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. LAA
Valdez is locked in. In his last five starts, he's had a 2.18 ERA, 2.32 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 5.5 BB%, 31.5 K%, 53.9 GB% and 30.6 CSW% in 33.0 innings. Furthermore, Valdez has had nine quality starts in his last 10 turns.
And, like Webb, he's thrived at home. In 193.0 innings at home since 2021, he's had a 3.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 BB% and 26.2 K%. So, Webb has had an advantage in production at home since 2021. Otherwise, Valdez has basically matched Webb's dominance lately. The biggest difference is Webb facing Dean Kremer and Valdez opposing Ohtani.
The sledding could be trickier for a win for Valdez, reflected in Houston's -125 moneyline. Yet, the game's total of 7.5 runs is ideal for Valdez. And, while the Angels are a top-five offense against lefties, Valdez dominated them on May 9, holding them to one run on three hits and 12 strikeouts in 8.0 innings. Therefore, Valdez's ceiling is tailor-made for GPPs.
Tyler Glasnow (TB) at BOS
Glasnow allowed three runs on five hits, one walk and eight strikeouts in 4.1 innings in his season debut against the Dodgers on May 27. It wasn't a flawless outing, but Glasnow checked many boxes. For instance, he pumped premium cheddar and had a 38.6 CSW%. Glasnow was also stretched to 83 pitches, setting the stage for a potential full workload tonight.
The bat-missing righty must navigate a tough matchup in a hitter-friendly park. So, obviously, there's a significant risk when using him. But the Rays are -125, and the game's total of 9.0 runs isn't outrageously high. And most importantly, Glasnow can mow down any lineup when he's sharp. Thus, he's a perfect fit in tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Phillies are an average offense against righties. They can shine tonight though against a dreadful bullpen and an overachieving starting pitcher. Washington's relievers have the sixth-highest ERA (4.52) this year. Before Philadelphia faces Washington's bullpen, they'll take hacks against Josiah Gray. The 25-year-old righty's 2.77 ERA in 11 starts is shiny. Yet, his 4.18 xERA and 4.97 xFIP indicate he's due for regression if his underlying numbers don't improve. But if the other shoe drops tonight, the Phillies can smash.
- Home (Citi Field)
- Value: Medium (FD)/High (DK)
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/NYM -135
The Mets are in a similar boat as the Phillies. Chris Bassitt's 3.80 ERA in 11 starts this year is markedly lower than his 4.95 xERA and 4.79 xFIP. Unfortunately for New York's lineup, Toronto's bullpen is much better than Washington's, increasing the risk for stacking the Mets. Revisiting Bassitt, he's struggled mightily against lefties this year, coughing up a .382 OBP, .573 SLG and .405 wOBA to them. So, the preferred stacking selections are New York's hitters who will bat left-handed against Bassitt.
- Road (Fenway Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/TB -125
Stacking the Rays tonight is not cheap, but their high-powered offense has a cathedral-high ceiling at Fenway Park. According to our three-year-rolling park factors, Fenway Park has the third-highest park factor for runs (1.210). And the Rays don't need much help elevating their offense. First, Tampa Bay is first in wRC+ (128) against righties, 13 points higher than the second-highest mark. Second, they're 10th in wRC+ (108) over the last 14 days. Third, they have the highest wRC+ (125) on the road.
Any righty would have a difficult time against the Rays, and Garrett Whitlock has pitched erratically this year. In four starts totaling 21.0 innings, he has a 5.14 ERA, 4.57 xERA and 4.33 xFIP. Whitlock has also served up 2.14 HR/9. Boston's bullpen is slightly above average, but Tampa Bay's offense is talented enough to overcome the matchup against the relievers. And, of course, Tampa Bay's implied total is DFS-friendly.
- Bryce Harper hasn't shown any signs of rust after opening the year on the Injured List (IL) while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. In 109 plate appearances in 2023, he has three homers, three stolen bases, a .404 OBP and 136 wRC+.
- Josh Lowe is tearing the cover off the ball against righties this year, amassing a .351 OBP, .283 ISO and 163 wRC+ in 154 plate appearances. The toolsy outfielder is also a threat to steal bases, swiping 13 in 15 attempts this season.
- Kyle Schwarber has walked, struck out or homered in 51.9% of his plate appearances this year—unfortunately, a 29.5 K% accounts for a significant portion of his three true outcomes. The left-handed slugger's .315 wOBA is unlucky, though. Schwarber's batted-ball data produces a more favorable .351 xwOBA. And the matchup with Gray isn't too shabby. The righty has allowed a .499 SLG and .367 wOBA to 558 left-handed batters in his career.
- Brett Baty is a cheap piece of left-handed exposure to Bassitt from a good lineup spot. Moreover, the young hitter has had four homers, a .418 OBP, .313 ISO and 201 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances at home.
- In 92 plate appearances this season, Alex Kirilloff has a .457 OBP and 169 wRC+.
- Last night, Royce Lewis clubbed his second homer in three games for the Twins this season. He had four homers, two stolen bases, a .371 OBP, .394 ISO and 165 wRC+ in 35 plate appearances in Triple-A this year.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Phillies, Mets and Rays are the best sources of offense tonight. But Kirilloff and Lewis are excellent value picks from the Twins, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
