There are 14 games on tonight’s massive MLB DFS slate. The fun begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Tonight’s suggestions are vast and befitting a large slate. They include four pitchers, three stacks, two studs and four values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The first two pitchers listed on the table are the top options in cash games and GPPs. And the third and fourth pitchers are stellar SP2 picks at DK in cash games and GPPs, respectively.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. DET
Ryan opened the season on fire but hasn't been quite as sharp lately. Nevertheless, he's pitched adequately during his hiccup.
The 27-year-old can recapture his early-season form at home in a plus matchup. According to FanGraphs, Ryan has had a 3.23 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 7.4 BB% and 27.1 K% in 128.1 innings at home since reaching the majors in 2021.
And the Tigers are a soft matchup. First, Detroit is 28th in wRC+ (82) and has a 24.4 K% against righties this year. Second, they're 24th in wRC+ (80) and have a 26.9 K% in the last 14 days. Finally, they're dead last in wRC+ (68) on the road, with a 25.7 K%.
J.P. France (HOU) vs. CIN
In seven starts spanning 40.2 innings this season, France has a 3.54 ERA, 4.23 xERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 8.8 BB%, 20.5 K% and 29.6 CSW%. The gap between his ERA and ERA estimators suggests he's been a little lucky. Still, the rookie hurler has had back-to-back quality starts, pitched at least 5.0 innings in six of seven starts, allowed three runs or fewer five times and struck out at least five batters four times, including punching out at least six in three of his last four turns.
France's pitch-by-pitch breakdown is encouraging for him striking out another DFS-friendly number of batters tonight. Per FanGraphs, he's had a 13.1 SwStr% on his changeup, 14.7 SwStr% on his slider and 20.8 SwStr% on his curveball, giving him three viable put-away pitches.
Thankfully, the matchup and betting info is encouraging, too. The Reds are tied for 22nd in wRC+ (90) and have a 23.2 K% against righties this year. In addition, they're tied for 20th in wRC+ (91) in the previous 14 days. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Astros are -200, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Michael Kopech (CWS) at SEA
Kopech is carving up opponents lately and pitching like an ace. In his last five starts totaling 31.1 innings, he's had a 1.72 ERA, 2.38 SIERA, 0.67 WHIP, 4.3 BB%, 37.6 K% and 32.9 CSW%. He's punched out at least six batters in each of those starts and fanned at least nine four times.
Kopech's strikeout heater should get some accelerant tonight. The Mariners have struck out in 25.3% of their plate appearances against righties this year, had a 24.9 K% in the last 14 days and struck out in 24.8% of their plate appearances at home this year. The Mariners aren't a pushover. However, their propensity to punch out gives Kopech a massive ceiling tonight.
JP Sears (OAK) vs. PHI
Sears has substantial home and road splits. While it's a small sample, Sears has pitched much better at home this year. In 28.0 innings in Oakland in 2023, he's had a 2.57 ERA, 4.66 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 4.5 BB% and 20.5 K%.
Sears's good results at home pair nicely with Philadelphia's lousy numbers against lefties. The Phillies are 25th in wRC+ (95) and have a 25.5 K% versus left-handed pitchers in 2023. As a result, Sears is a sweet cap-friendly GPP SP2 at DK.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 10.0 Runs/ATL -260
The Braves have a top-shelf offense against righties this year, ranking ninth in wRC+ (106). They're also good at home and have been playing well lately. Atlanta is tied for eighth in wRC+ (109) at home and first in wRC+ (131) during the last 14 days.
The matchup should bring the best out of them tonight. Dinelson Lamet was dreadful in the bullpen early this year and hasn't pitched well since he was recalled from the minors to join their rotation. In three starts totaling 11.0 innings, Lamet has had an 8.18 ERA, 4.57 xFIP and 2.18 WHIP. Colorado's bullpen is also below average, owning the eighth-highest ERA (4.51) this year. As a result, the Braves are the top stack tonight in all game types.
- Home (Target Field Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Tigers haven't announced a starter, but Roster Resource projects lefty Tyler Alexander to get the ball. There's some risk to stacking the Twins if Alexander pitches since he's pitched fewer than 4.0 innings in all of his appearances this season. Minnesota's platoon hitters, such as Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer, can be removed when he gets lifted. Both could play the entire game, though. And Detroit's bullpen isn't an imposing matchup when they take over for Alexander. Detroit's relievers are midpack in ERA (3.96) this year. Finally, Minnesota's offense has raked at home, ranking sixth in wRC+ (115) and fifth in ISO (.193) in home games this season.
- Road (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Giants are in a similar boat to the Twins since the Dodgers haven't announced a starting pitcher. Roster Resource and others speculate Matt Andriese will be added to the 40-man roster and start tonight. Andriese has made 12 starts spanning 60.0 innings in Triple-A this year, getting knocked around for a 4.50 ERA, 5.46 xFIP and 1.50 HR/9. Furthermore, Andriese had a 5.21 ERA and 5.19 xERA in 48.1 innings in relief when he was last in the majors in 2021. He was crushed by lefties and righties in 2021, coughing up a .377 wOBA to the former and a .361 wOBA to the latter.
LA's bullpen is also a train wreck. Their relievers have the second-highest ERA (4.87) in 2022. So, the Giants can light up the scoreboard tonight. They're fifth in wRC+ (111) against righties, tied for fourth in wRC+ (121) in the last 14 days and third in wRC+ (115) in road games this year. The most significant concern for stacking the Giants is their propensity to platoon. Therefore, San Francisco could turn to pinch-hitters if the Dodgers bring in a lefty reliever or use an opener and have Andriese operate as a bulk pitcher. Therefore, the Giants are only stackable in GPPs.
- In 225 plate appearances against righties this year, Matt Olson has had a .378 OBP, .303 ISO and 146 wRC+.
- Carlos Correa is swinging a hot bat. In 83 plate appearances in the last 30 days, he's had a .361 OBP, .225 ISO and 136 wRC+.
- Royce Lewis has torn the cover off the ball in his limited time in The Show. In 87 plate appearances in his career, he's had four homers, a .310 OBP, .198 ISO and 127 wRC+.
- Marcell Ozuna has a .333 OBP, .213 ISO and 114 wRC+ against righties this year. Additionally, he has five homers, a .385 OBP, .238 ISO and 157 wRC+ in 91 plate appearances in the last 30 days.
- First, Brendan Donovan is a good punt because he hits leadoff for the Cardinals. Second, he has a 111 wRC+ against righties this year.
- Michael Harris was outstanding in his rookie season last year. Unfortunately, he endured a sophomore slump to open the 2023 campaign. The toolsy outfielder has found his footing lately. Harris has had four multi-hit efforts in his last nine games and swatted three homers, stolen two bases and produced a .444 OBP during that stretch.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves have a monstrous implied total tonight and are the best source of hitters. But gamers shouldn't dismiss stacking the Twins or Giants in GPPs.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
