Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is large. There are a dozen games to select players from, and the action begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer narrows the focus to four pitchers, three stacks, two studs and four values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Tonight's slate doesn't have no-brainer pitching picks. So, even the top options carry risk. As a result, there should be a decided lack of chalky pitchers. The top-ranked pitcher headlines the GPP picks. And the second and third listed pitchers are the best choices in cash games. Finally, the last pitcher on the table is the most attractive value pick in GPPs, albeit with significant risk for an ugly start.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Jon Gray (TEX) vs. HOU
Gray has significantly outkicked his ERA estimators this year. Still, he's pitched well. Additionally, Gray has enjoyed toeing the slab at home since joining the Rangers before last season. According to FanGraphs, in 83.1 innings at home since last year, Gray has had a 3.56 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 6.2 BB% and 25.1 K%.
Gray's matchup is midpack, and the betting info is decent. Houston is 15th in wRC+ (99) and has a 22.2 K% against righties this year. And, per Betting Pros, the Rangers are -160. Sadly, the game's total is 9.0 runs. So, the betting info isn't perfect.
Bobby Miller (LAD) at KC
Miller hasn't been overwhelmed in his rookie year. Instead, in six starts spanning 33.2 innings, he's had a 4.13 ERA, 3.47 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 9.5 BB% and 22.6 K%. Miller also has superb pitch modeling data. Miller has a 119 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 108 Pitching+.
He has a matchup tonight in which he can dominate. First, the Royals are 30th in wRC+ (80) and have a 24.5 K% against righties this year. Second, they're 26th in wRC+ (76) and have a 27.2 K% in the previous 14 days. Third, Kansas City is 28th in wRC+ (87) and has a 21.8 K% at home this season. Finally, the Dodgers are -220.
GPP Recommendations:
Pablo Lopez (MIN) at BAL
Lopez was remarkably unlucky in his last five starts. The righty had a 5.04 ERA in those turns. However, Lopez's 2.96 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, 5.4 BB%, 30.2 K% and 30.1 CSW% were excellent. The righty's underlying stats are worth betting on tonight.
The positives for him don't end there, though. Lopez has a 101 Stuff+, 107 Location+ and 110 Pitching+. He's also excelled on the road this year. In 49.0 innings on the road this year, Lopez has a 2.94 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 5.6 BB% and 30.3 K%. The Orioles are a challenging matchup for him. Nevertheless, Lopez has the talent to tie them up and the ceiling worth chasing in GPPs.
Michael Soroka (ATL) vs. MIA
Soroka was crushed in two starts for the Braves. However, he's pitched well in Triple-A. Furthermore, Soroka has been sharp in three turns since the Braves demoted him. In Soroka's last three starts spanning 19.0 innings, he's had a 1.42 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 10.8 BB% and 24.3 K%. Can he translate that success to the majors? Maybe.
The matchup is good. The Marlins are tied for 19th in wRC+ (94) and have a 22.1 K% against righties this season. Miami is also tied for 16th in wRC+ (96) and has a 22.2 K% on the road in 2023. Soroka is a high-risk option. Yet, he has a low bar to clear to provide value at his small salary.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Truist Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Braves have an elite offense by any measure. First, they're third in wRC+ (116) and third in ISO (.209) against righties this year. Second, Atlanta is first in wRC+ (157) and ISO (.291) in the last 14 days. Third, the Braves are tied for fourth in wRC+ (118) and third in ISO (.208) at home in 2023. They can light up any pitcher and face one outproducing his ERA estimators this year. Bryan Hoeing has a 2.31 ERA in 18 appearances (four starts) spanning 35.0 innings. But the righty's 3.60 xERA and 4.45 xFIP indicate regression should be expected. The Braves can hammer him tonight.
- Home (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/TEX -160
The Rangers are another offensive juggernaut on tonight's slate. They're second in wRC+ (117) against righties this year, third in wRC+ (130) in the last 14 days and first in wRC+ (138) and ISO (.215) at home this season. Ronel Blanco is unlikely to keep them in check. In four starts spanning 23.0 innings, he has a 4.70 ERA and 5.02 xFIP. The righty has also coughed up 2.74 HR/9 in those turns.
The Twins are a matchup-driven suggestion. In 16 starts spanning 88.0 innings this year, Dean Kremer has a 4.50 ERA, 5.71 xERA and 4.88 xFIP. He's yielded 1.74 HR/9. And the righty has been a punching bag for lefties and an unimposing matchup for righties. The 175 left-handed batters who've faced Kremer this year have a .366 OBP, .528 SLG and .384 wOBA. And the righties have a .314 wOBA. Minnesota can squander a good matchup, but their lefties are exciting to stack at bargain salaries.
- In 285 plate appearances against righties this year, Ronald Acuna has a .407 OBP, .261 ISO and 169 wRC+. The toolsy outfielder has also stolen 36 bases this year.
- In 661 plate appearances against righties since 2021, Austin Riley has had a .351 OBP, .222 ISO and 131 wRC+.
- In 118 plate appearances against righties this year, Edouard Julien has a .376 OBP, .202 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- Ezequiel Duran has amassed a .333 OBP, .205 ISO and 132 wRC+ against righties this year.
- In 138 plate appearances against righties this year, Alex Kirilloff has a .406 OBP, .145 ISO and 143 wRC+.
- Leody Taveras has tallied a .337 OBP, .182 ISO and 125 wRC+ in 182 plate appearances against righties this season. Taveras has also stolen eight bases in 11 attempts this season.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves were listed as only a GPP stacking option because they're too expensive to fully stack in cash games with the suggested pitchers for those contests. The Rangers are easier to stack in all game types. However, they're also recommended for only GPPs because having exposure to the Braves in cash games is ideal. The Twins are also only a GPP option, but that's because they have a volatile offense capable of busting even in a good matchup. So, in cash games, gamers should mix the Braves and Rangers while sprinkling in the cheap left-handed batters from the Twins suggested in the values/punts section.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
