Tonight’s main MLB DFS slate has 10 games, giving gamers plenty of choices for pitchers and hitters. It starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer reduces the pool of viable options to four pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The highest-salaried hurler is the top option tonight, despite a tricky matchup. He's pitched well this year, lately and at home in recent years. The second option doesn't have as high of a ceiling as the top hurler. However, he has a higher floor, making him an outstanding choice in cash games. The final two pitchers are exciting options in GPPs and free up valuable cap space for hitters in mouthwatering conditions tonight.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Logan Webb (SF) vs. ARI
According to FanGraphs, Webb has a 3.11 ERA, 3.73 xERA, 3.02 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 4.8 BB%, 24.5 K%, 60.7 GB% and 30.2 CSW% in 15 starts spanning 98.1 innings this season. He's been in good form lately, too. In his last five starts totaling 33.1 innings, Webb has had a 3.51 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 4.4 BB%, 23.0 K% and 29.1 CSW%.
The righty's numbers are rock-solid this year and of late. However, his dominance at home is the most compelling reason for using him in DFS tonight. In 212.0 innings at home since 2021, Webb has had a 2.42 ERA, 2.76 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 5.6 BB% and 25.4 K%.
The Diamondbacks have a talented offense. Yet, oddsmakers and bettors aren't optimistic about them getting the better of Webb. Per Betting Pros, the Giants are -190, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. WSH
Musgrove has pitched well recently, albeit with some luck. In his last five starts spanning 29.1 innings, he's had a 2.15 ERA, 3.71 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB%, 19.5 K% and 27.4 CSW%. Yes, Musgrove's sub-20 K% has left something to be desired. Still, he's pitched well.
Moreover, Musgrove has enjoyed pitching at home in recent seasons. In 217.0 innings at home since 2021, Musgrove has had a 3.19 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 6.7 BB% and 26.7 K%.
The veteran righty will enjoy a good matchup tonight. The Nationals are tied for 25th in wRC+ (87) against righties this season. They're also 26th in wRC+ (79) in the last 14 days. In addition, they're 17th in wRC+ (96) on the road this year. Finally, the Padres are -265, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Brayan Bello (BOS) at CWS
Bello is in a groove. In his last five starts, he's had a 2.61 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 6.3 BB%, 20.5 K% and 26.9 CSW% in 31.0 innings.
The matchup is ideal for another DFS-friendly start tonight. First, the White Sox are 29th in wRC+ (82) and have a 23.2 K% against righties. Second, they're 24th in wRC+ (82) and have a 25.7 K% in the last 14 days. Third, they're 22nd in wRC+ (94) and have a 22.2 K% at home this year. And, while the Red Sox are only slight favorites (-115), the game's total (8.5) isn't too shabby.
J.P. France (HOU) at LAD
France hasn't been overwhelmed by big-league hitters in his rookie campaign. Instead, in eight starts, he's had a 3.42 ERA, 4.11 xERA, 4.45 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 8.1 BB%, 19.3 K% and 29.3 CSW% in 47.1 innings. The righty's ERA estimators and strikeout rate haven't been earth-shattering. Yet, his 29.3 CSW% is encouraging for more strikeouts on the horizon. Additionally, he's struck out at least six batters in three of his last five starts.
The Dodgers can test him tonight. But, fortunately, he's facing them at the right time. The Dodgers are 23rd in RC+ (84) and have a 24.7 K% in the previous 14 days. So, after spinning quality starts in his last three starts, he could extend his streak to four tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
Kyle Freeland has avoided the pitfalls of his home ballpark this year. But a larger sample suggests his numbers this year in Colorado are a fluke. In 189.0 innings at home since 2021, Freeland has had a 5.00 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 6.4 BB% and 17.8 K%. He also allowed a .345 OBP, .490 SLG and .358 wOBA to 831 batters in those starts.
Any offense would be exciting to stack against Freeland at Coors Field. The Angels are an above-average offense, enhancing the appeal of stacking them. The Angels are 10th in wRC+ (109) against lefties this year, tied for 12th in wRC+ (111) over the last 14 days and fourth in wRC+ (111) on the road this season.
- Home (PETCO Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPPs
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SD -265
The Padres are a high-upside pivot from stacking the Angels. They're tied for seventh in wRC+ (112) against lefties in 2023. They're also tied for sixth in wRC+ (118) in the last 14 days. Furthermore, they're tied for 11th in wRC+ (107) at home this season.
The matchup is good, too. Patrick Corbin has a 4.89 ERA in 15 starts this year, but his ugly ERA is markedly better than his 6.32 xERA. So, there's room for regression and worse performance. Washington's bullpen is a cherry on top for San Diego's outlook. The Nationals have the fourth-highest bullpen ERA (4.76) this year. Therefore, while the Angels should be the highest-scoring team on tonight's slate, the Friars could give them a run for their money.
- Road (Rogers Centre)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPPs
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/OAK +240
If the A's are smart, they'll stuff their lineup with lefties against Chris Bassitt. The 34-year-old righty has held right-handed batters to a .228 wOBA this year. However, lefties have tattooed him for a .374 OBP, .616 SLG and .416 wOBA. The Athletics aren't an ideal complete stack. But stacking a few of their lefties is a cap-friendly move with the upside to outproduce the cumulative salaries. Finally, doing so frees up resources to stack the Angels or Padres while also using the top-ranked pitchers tonight.
- In 264 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Mike Trout has had a .398 OBP, .216 ISO and 147 wRC+.
- Brandon Drury has amassed a .319 OBP, .272 ISO and 138 wRC+ in 260 plate appearances against southpaws since 2021. Drury has also raked lately. In 105 plate appearances in the last 30 days, he's hit five homers and had a .362 OBP, .227 ISO and 147 wRC+.
- In 415 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Hunter Renfroe has had a .349 OBP, .226 ISO and 129 wRC+.
- In his rookie campaign, Ryan Noda has a .394 OBP, .189 ISO and 142 wRC+ in 231 plate appearances against righties.
- Ezequiel Tovar has a .238 ISO, 99 wRC+ and .340 wOBA against lefties in 84 plate appearances against them since reaching The Show in 2022.
- Nelson Cruz has had a .347 OBP, .181 ISO and 119 wRC+ in 441 plate appearances against lefties since 2021. The veteran slugger has also clubbed two homers in 17 plate appearances since returning from the Injured List on June 14.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Angels will be a chalky stack tonight. Nevertheless, they're the best stack across all game types. Gamers entering multiple tournament lineups should mix the Padres into some of their stacks. Finally, Oakland's lefties are a sweet salary-relief source tonight.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
