By now, you know the saying. “You don’t win your league in the first round of your fantasy football draft.” With a deep pool of talent still available, most people get a competent starter for their fantasy team unless there’s a major injury or they really botch the pick. Instead, leagues are won in the middle and late rounds. That’s where you start to find players the consensus disagrees on for one reason or another, and it’s where you can find what are called “league winners.” These players offer immense value because they outperform their draft position and give you the production of a 1st- or 2nd-round pick in the later rounds.
We asked our featured experts to pick their favorite RB, WR & QB league winners ahead of the 2023 NFL season. Here are their picks and accompanying justifications.
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League Winners to Target in Fantasy Football Drafts
Q. Which one running back do you believe will be this year’s league winner? (e.g., 2022 Josh Jacobs or Jamaal Williams)
Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
“Rookie Kendre Miller can be a league winner in 2023. Standing at 5-11 and 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), the highly productive TCU running back possesses ideal size for the NFL level. He showcased his efficiency and explosiveness on a per-play basis, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt in 2021 and finishing fourth in career yards per play among his RB draft class. And despite Miller not testing due to recovering from a knee injury, the New Orleans Saints selected him in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He may not have an immediate opportunity to start, given the presence of Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams on the depth chart, but Miller’s explosive running style and big-play ability make him an exciting stash across deeper formats as a high-upside running back in the later rounds. The Saints also benefit from the league’s easiest schedule, putting Miller in a spot to face soft matchups when he finally earns opportunities.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
“Joe Mixon was a fade for me in early best ball, as I bought into the assumption that the Bengals would be either targeting a high-profile running back during free agency or investing significant draft capital on the position. Cincinnati did neither, and I have done a 180 on my view of the Bengals’ lead back. Cincinnati should once again have one of the league’s top offenses, faces the Vikings and the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs, and Mixon should enter the season locked into a bell-cow role. Chase Brown, Cincinnati’s fifth-round selection, has sleeper appeal, but as long Mixon produces, the rookie’s touches should be limited.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)
“The Ravens were ready to unleash Dobbins in a major way prior to his devastating knee injury just before the 2021 season, and they took it relatively easy on him in his 2022 return, especially after his midseason setback. But the Ravens believe he’s a superstar talent, and now another year removed from his injury, they expect him to explode in 2023. It’s telling that an organization that values rushing the ball as much as the Ravens do chose not to take a running back in the 2023 draft. This is Dobbins’ backfield, and considering the upgrades in the passing game at both wide receiver and offensive play-caller, Dobbins should have even more room to operate this year. He may even finally start to show off his elite pass-catching skill set that the past OC ignored. If that happens, coupled with his league-leading yards per carry and likely heavy red-zone usage, Dobbins has an outside chance at a top-5 finish at the position.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
“J.K. Dobbins is set to crush in a contract year. Dobbins is easily one of the most explosive rushers in the NFL when at full strength. Last year, operating on one healthy leg, he ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage and 24th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 90 carries). In Todd Monken’s system, Dobbins’ talent will be on full display, as Monken has historically relied on one back. Dobbins is that dude.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
“One of the quietest winners of the offseason has been Rachaad White. The Bucs didn’t bring in competition to hurt White’s chance of being a semi-workhorse back. White had to split the work with Leonard Fourtnette in 2022 and still managed 129 carries and 58 targets. While the Tampa offense may not be as good, White should see an opportunity to reach over 200 carries and could be used heavily in the passing game. White getting to the 90-target level is within reach to help propel him to league-winner status.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
“Few running backs have had as good of an offseason as Rachaad White. While Tampa could certainly still add someone, it seems likely that White is going to get a shot at being the lead back. (Sean Tucker will get some work, but as a UDFA, he doesn’t concern me.) Even if it’s on what projects to be a very lackluster offense, the prospect of drafting a true three-down back outside the top 20-25 running backs is a bet that feels skewed toward the upside — and if Tampa Bay is even close to an average offense, White could be a true league winner.”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)
D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI)
“If we’re talking league-winning, we’re talking upside, which means we have to talk about D’Andre Swift. Over his unnerving NFL career, Swift has been nothing but electric (and injured). After a messy breakup with the Lions, Swift isn’t only going to write a song about it, but he is now going out with one of the most attractive teams in the league. As for rebound options, it doesn’t get better than the Eagles. Once again, Swift finds himself in a potent offense with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The only issue is that with Jalen Hurts under center, Swift’s elite pass-catching chops will take a back seat. In 2022, Miles Sanders managed to find the end zone 11 times and finish as the RB13 with minimal receiving work. Now that Sanders is in Carolina, Swift’s main competitor for this role is Rashaad Penny (who signed a small one-year contract this offseason). If Swift wins this role completely, he’ll have the opportunity and ability to be RB1-worthy in fantasy.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Brian Robinson (RB – WSH)
“While I am not a fan of the term, Brian Robinson could be seen as a “league winner” at this point in time. The guy was literally shot multiple times a week before the season started last year. Yet, he still ended up with almost 900 total yards, missing only five games. In games where Robinson received at least 10 carries, he was on pace for nearly 1,300 scrimmage yards. Only 12 backs were able to top that last season, so with some positive touchdown regression and more targets from an inexperienced quarterback, Robinson is a league winner in the eighth round.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
“I’m not straying too far out of RB1 range with this one, but I’m interested in acquiring Najee Harris this year. The Steelers haven’t put good offensive lines in front of Najee his first two seasons, but Pittsburgh made significant improvements to that unit in the offseason, signing OGs Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig, and trading up to draft OT Broderick Jones in the first round. Najee’s 2021 season was considered a disappointment, but he was dealing with a sprained lisfranc early in the season. He averaged 59.1 yards from scrimmage over the first eight games of the season, 87.8 yards from scrimmage over his last nine. Najee has averaged 20.4 touches a game over his first two seasons and hasn’t missed any time due to injury. With a similar workload and the efficiency boost that improved health and an improved offensive line should provide, Najee could put together his best season yet.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
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Q. Which one wide receiver do you believe will be this year’s league winner (e.g., 2022 Jaylen Waddle or Christian Kirk)
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
“Marvin Jones‘ usage can provide us an idea of how the Jaguars will deploy their top three WRs in 2023, between Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley. Marvin Jones ran a route on 73% of dropbacks and led the Jaguars in deep targets (18) in 2022. All three players will be full-time starters in three-WR sets, with Ridley providing an upgrade as a deep/red-zone threat. Let’s not forget that the last time we saw Ridley suit up, he was borderline elite at commanding targets with the sixth-highest target rate per route run. As the Falcons’ No. 1 WR, he ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5). He’s being drafted as a fantasy WR2 with easy fantasy WR1 upside, just two years removed from a 90-1374-9 2020 campaign. Not to mention, per FantasyPros’ strength of schedule tool, the Jaguars boast the No. 1 SOS for fantasy QBs and fantasy WRs.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Calvin Ridley didn’t forget how to be an elite receiver during his time away from the NFL. As Trevor Lawrence‘s go-to receiver this year, he’s primed for a career season. Ridley was still at the top of his game the last time we saw him, as he ranked top five in route win rate and win rate against man coverage (per PlayerProfiler.com). The Jaguars will be top 10 in pace and passing rate this season, so volume won’t be a problem for Ridley despite Christian Kirk and Evan Engram demanding their fair share of targets.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
“The Chargers’ receiving room consists of a talented but unproved rookie, another gifted receiver who can’t seem to stay healthy and is currently recovering from a back fracture … and Keenan Allen. After dealing with injuries early, Keenan Allen finished 2022 hot, leading the league in receptions over the final eight weeks. Despite being a solid WR1 down the stretch, Allen is currently WR21 on Underdog. Justin Herbert may feed the veteran receiver if Mike Williams is limited and Quentin Johnson struggles to get up to speed, making Allen a high floor/ceiling selection in the fourth round.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
“There are strong cases to be made for plenty of wide receivers this year (please just draft as many as you possibly can in the first eight rounds), but I can only pick one, so rather than rehash one of the popular names I’m sure everyone will be picking, allow me to move down the list and highlight Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He’s only a rookie and likely starting the season as the WR3 on the Seahawks’ depth chart, but we’ve seen elite rookie WRs bust out plenty of times in recent seasons after a slow first month or two. And make no mistake: JSN is elite. His 2022 injury may have sapped momentum from the hype surrounding him entering the NFL Draft, but Smith-Njigba was *elite* in 2021 and has all the metrics of a superstar slot receiver in the NFL. Assuming he’s fully healthy now, there’s no reason JSN can’t lead Seattle in catches this year and become a must-start WR1 in the second half of his rookie season. Yes, I know DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are still in town, but JSN is that good.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
“Diontae Johnson is going to help fantasy owners as a league winner. Johnson continues to be a target hog for an offense pointing in the right direction. Johnson has had three straight seasons of more than 140 targets, and I don’t expect that to go away in 2023. The development of Kenny Pickett will be critical. Pickett, in the back half of 2022, still gave Johnson a heavy target share. Expect a positive regression in touchdowns for Johnson after posting zero in 2022. Johnson still has high-end WR 2 upside but won’t be drafted that way.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
Christian Watson (WR – GB)
“Probably my biggest riser this offseason has been Christian Watson. He was thought to be an explosive prospect and proved just that by averaging the second-most yards per reception for rookies last year with 14.9. He is now the clear top receiving option on the Packers, only competing for targets with two rookie tight ends, a second-round WR and offseason hype machine Romeo Doubs. Plus, Watson has already developed some chemistry with Jordan Love and possesses the athleticism to take any pass to the house. You are also betting on Jordan Love here, but Watson’s big-play ability and target volume could easily lift him well above his current WR24 average draft position.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
“Brandon Aiyuk had a sneakily good 2022 season, finishing as a midrange WR2, and managed to avoid any notable detriments this offseason to his stock, positioning Aiyuk well to continue his success into 2023. He’s an explosive player with a locked-in role on a very high-quality offense for fantasy. And if Deebo or CMC get hurt, Aiyuk has loads of extra upside.”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)
Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)
“Before I name my selection, just go look at the Tennessee Titans’ depth chart. Now that you did, you know my answer is Treylon Burks. Burks averaged over four catches and over 61 yards per game in weeks he did not leave with injury or weeks where he was coming back from injury in his rookie season. He was the focal point of the Titans’ passing offense. Now, they will have to go away from aging Derrick Henry more, meaning throw the ball more, and Burks is the only viable option to throw to in their receiver group.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“Chris Olave has a chance to build on a strong rookie season in which he caught 72 passes for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns with a robust 26.6% target share. Now he gets a QB upgrade with Derek Carr, and the dream is that the Saints’ new QB will lock onto Olave the way Carr locked onto Davante Adams last year. Adams finished second in the NFL targets last year with 180 and had a whopping 32.3% target share. It’s unrealistic to expect Olave to finish with a target share north of 30%, but it’s reasonable to expect Olave’s already zesty target share to either hold steady or tick upward. Carr is sure to appreciate Olave’s precise route running, and there’s reason to believe Carr will try to capitalize on Olave’s deep speed. Carr averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, according to Pro Football Reference, fourth-highest in the league. With a target bump and more opportunities to make plays downfield, Olave has a chance to be a fantasy force this year.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
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Q. Which one quarterback do you believe will be this year’s league winner (e.g., 2022 Geno Smith or Trevor Lawrence)
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
“Geno Smith proved his fantasy doubters wrong in his first year as Seattle’s fully entrenched starter, finishing as the QB6 while averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8). The only QBs who scored more points per game than Smith last season were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson. Smith has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in his 20 starts for the Seahawks the past two seasons, and there’s no reason to think he cannot continue the success in 2023. All Seattle did during the draft was select future No. 1 rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Outside QB1 territory is still too cheap for Chef Geno in early ADP. He should be viewed as a low-end consensus fantasy QB1.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN)
“I understand that Kirk Cousins offers little rushing upside and that his long-term future is cloudy in dynasty. However, anyone attached to Justin Jefferson (and now Jordan Addison), I am happy to roster this season. A fantasy playoff schedule featuring likely shootouts vs. Cincinnati, Detroit and Green Bay makes me even more excited to target Cousins after the top tier of passers are off the board.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
“The correct answer here is Anthony Richardson. You simply won’t find that kind of league-winning upside outside the top 100 picks anywhere else. But for the sake of diversity, let’s talk about someone else. How about Tua Tagovailoa? If this were about dynasty, I’d be extremely hesitant. Tua is, after all, one more bad concussion away from possibly ending his career. But in a single season where we’re looking for a true league winner, I’m less worried about that risk. And Tua showed last season that he can operate an elite offense. Mike McDaniel is one of the best young offensive minds in the game, and Tua is perfectly suited to get the ball in the hands of superstar receivers like Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Tua is currently going as QB13 in ADP, but if you guaranteed health (I understand, it’s a big IF), then he’d be top 7 in my eyes, and it’s not difficult to spin the narrative where he finishes the year top 5.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Sam Howell (QB – WSH)
“I will die on the hill that Sam Howell becomes a threat at quarterback. Howell is being underrated based on a mediocre final season at UNC. Howell showed his ability to perform at a high level with weapons and has some talent in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. Adding Eric Bieniemy’s play calling will boost Howell in a more dynamic offense to show his abilities. Remember that Howell has some mobility, as he ran for 800 yards at UNC during his final season.”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
Trey Lance (QB – SF)
“I’ll say it louder for the people in the back: Trey Lance WILL be a league winner in 2023. I don’t have time to get into the Brock Purdy injury situation, but I’ll call my shot and say that if Lance starts Week One (which I think he will), then he will maintain the job all season. What I find interesting about Lance is that he has fallen due to injury and a magical seventh-round draft pick, both reasons out of his control. As a result, we have yet to see enough of the electric prospect who had the fantasy community buzzing two years ago. If what we’ve seen in his four NFL starts is his floor (averaging 191 passing yards and 69 rushing yards), then he’ll be a fantasy force in 2023. The icing is that he is currently being drafted as the QB26, making him a potential league winner you can grab late and drop if things don’t work out.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
“When looking for this year’s Geno Smith, we need one thing … and that’s uncertainty. Someone who has a wide range of outcomes and because of that perceived risk is being discounted relative to where their expected/median outcome might be. This opens the door for huge upside if they reach the upper set of their possibilities, and to me, Jordan Love fits that description perfectly. He’s no Aaron Rodgers, of course, but he’s still in the same successful system with solid weapons, so if he’s able to execute it, the fantasy rewards may be fruitful at a time when hitting on a later-round QB affords your team incredible upside.”
– Benjamin Klotz (Touchdown Squad)
Russell Wilson (QB – DEN)
“It scares me to say this, but my chips are pushed to the middle, banking on a Russell Wilson bounce-back season. Yes, Sean Payton will be a big factor in authoring this comeback story, but we also saw Wilson start to put himself back together down the stretch last season. In Weeks 11-18, Wilson was eighth in big-time throw rate, seventh in adjusted completion rate and had the eighth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate (per PFF, minimum 75 dropbacks). In 2023, let’s ride.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)
“I think C.J. Stroud has been underrated for his rushing ability. All anyone has talked about when it comes to the incoming rookie quarterbacks is Anthony Richardson’s rushing upside. The thing is, at Ohio State, Stroud never had to run because he had the greatest college receiving corps of all time. He showed that he has the athleticism to gain yards in open space against the all-time talented Georgia defense, and with a subpar rushing game, I think there is a chance Stroud out-points Richardson on the ground this season.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
“How about the oft-maligned Jared Goff? He ranked QB10 in fantasy scoring last year and was seventh in passer rating, sixth in yards per attempt and fifth in QBR. Goff was sacked only 23 times last year — half the number of sacks that Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins took. That reflects a quarterback who’s in command of his offense and knows where to go with the ball. Goff has a good offensive line in front of him and will have some solid pass-catching weaponry with Amon-Ra St. Brown, rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, and (eventually, post-suspension) Jameson Williams. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is a sharp play caller, and Goff has a soft schedule this year.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
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