Despite the litany of draft advice bestowed upon fantasy football managers this time of year, only one viaduct has near-unanimous support. Value-based drafting (VBD) is a macro strategy that essentially instructs the manager to catch snowflakes on their tongue as they flutter down the board. Although I still feel like average draft position (ADP) is a construct and experienced players would have more success ignoring it, VBD helps us find those hidden gems that will result in a more fortified roster. For sharp, well-respected ADP data, look no further than FantasyPros.
When comparing expert consensus rankings (ECR) to ADP, one can quickly determine which players will add the most value to a roster. It also reveals the players who might be inflated by too much hype. With most position-centric draft strategies, draft position matters greatly. VBD considers the best player available, regardless of draft position. I like to “zoom out” when planning for a draft and use VBD to get a general sense for which segments of the draft will provide the greatest positional values. Let’s dive deeper into that thought process.
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Although scoring settings matter for drilling down values, let’s assume it’s straight PPR. Current ADP only has three RBs going in the first round (Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson), along with eight WRs and Travis Kelce. The ECR indicates that seven RBs should be first round picks in fantasy drafts. As with most things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. The two “value” RBs to consider in the first round are Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard. Rhamondre Stevenson is a fringe candidate for the first/second round turn. These three backs bring immense upside and implied stability in their respective situations to certainly warrant preference over WRs like Stefon Diggs and AJ Brown.
The next few rounds are where we find the “RB Dead Zone.” It’s a nasty place where RBs are in murky situations or players are over-inflated due to their situation versus their talent. In the past, I’ve happily and successfully plucked league-winning RBs from the Dead Zone, but it was done with great care. This season, the Dead Zone is a very real hazard to roster construction. Thankfully, there are plenty of other options to draw attention away from RB and address other positions with stellar upside players. Every analyst will define this range differently, but I feel strongly that it falls between the fourth and eighth rounds. Here is a VBD chart to help pick the right players in that range.
Making such a chart will almost certainly subject me to vehement disagreement. It’s a provocative business and opinions vary widely but rest assured I have no ulterior motives here. From the drafts I have been involved in so far, the middle rounds carry the biggest value edge of any segment. I don’t dislike any of the above RBs, but find selecting them at ADP to be a wasteful endeavor. RBs before and after them in ADP are simply preferred based on upside-to-acquisition cost. The QBs and receivers listed above are all mid-round targets of mine who provide a significant value boost in that range.
The double-digit rounds are not make-or-break picks. They are smash-or-drop selections and should be reserved for your favorite breakouts. Whether or not you believe in handcuffing at the RB position, attrition is real. I don’t usually find it necessary to seek out the handcuffs specific to my starting RBs, but instead look for the most valuable ones relative to what they provide should they be pressed into action. This is also an area where a manager can take some deep shots on WRs they like and underappreciated TEs. In leagues with deeper benches, a second QB late in the draft can round out the roster and give peace of mind. I’ve listed some key VBD targets for each position below.
- QB: Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell
- RB: James Cook, Antonio Gibson, Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Warren, Roschon Johnson, Jerome Ford, Malik Davis, Kenneth Gainwell
- WR: Michael Gallup, Darnell Mooney, Nico Collins, Jayden Reed, Marvin Mims, Curtis Samuel, Puka Nacua
- TE: Dalton Kincaid, Chig Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, Jake Ferguson, Cole Turner
Most leagues aren’t nearly deep enough to dive into some of the names above, but they are on my radar for early-season waivers in shallower leagues nonetheless. The draft is only the stepping-off point of the season. Active and attentive managers will be able to keep themselves in contention through waivers and trades, while also getting some injury luck. Value-based drafting is a simple concept with a multitude of directions to branch from. There are always falling snowflakes of value in fantasy drafts. Your goal is always to accumulate enough of them to roll into a roster that makes your opponents shiver.
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