New York Jets
Tyler Conklin finished as the TE16 last season, ending the year with 83 targets (9th) for the second straight season. The Jets TE1’s most appealing trait was his high-end route participation (70%) which ranked 9th among all tight ends in 2022. With an every-down role well within his sights, Conklin is a nice late-round dart throw should he emerge as an Aaron Rodgers go-to target in the red zone.
However, be wary of going ALL-IN on Gronklin. Second-year tight end out of Ohio State, Jeremy Ruckert, has been making a lot of playing during training camp.
Deep Sleepers:
New York Jets
Tyler Conklin finished as the TE16 last season, ending the year with 83 targets (9th) for the second straight season. The Jets TE1’s most appealing trait was his high-end route participation (70%) which ranked 9th among all tight ends in 2022. With an every-down role well within his sights, Conklin is a nice late-round dart throw should he emerge as an Aaron Rodgers go-to target in the red zone.
However, be wary of going ALL-IN on Gronklin. Second-year tight end out of Ohio State, Jeremy Ruckert, has been making a lot of playing during training camp.
Deep Sleepers:
Izzy Abanikanda is just 20 years old and has the speed to burn at 216 pounds (4.40 time). In his breakout 2022 season, he rushed for 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns (1.9 per game) en route to a 39% dominator rating (tied for the highest mark in the class). Abanikanda would go on to finish as PFF’s eighth-highest rusher in his draft class. There’s a small path for the 20-year-old him to see work in Gang Green should Breece Hall return slowly from his torn ACL injury. The market also seems to be “down” on Abanikanda after some believed he would earn better draft capital.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Rashaad Penny finds himself in a new situation in Philadelphia, signing a one-year deal with the Eagles in the offseason. He’s expected to compete for the early-down lead back role, following in the footsteps of Miles Sanders. In 2022, Penny’s on-field production was impressive, averaging over six yards per carry and ranking second among all RBs in rushing percentage that resulted in 10-plus yards. However, he missed a significant amount of time due to injuries. Quarterback Jalen Hurts‘ presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny’s TD potential to some extent but make no mistake that the former first-round pick has the potential to score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays, with seven of those being 30-plus plays from scrimmage. However, the addition of D’Andre Swift and the re-signing of Boston Scott could hinder Penny’s chances of a significant role in the Eagles’ offense.
While Swift and incumbent Kenneth Gainwell are expected to be the superior pass-catchers, Penny’s efficiency as a pure rusher should not be overlooked. However, his injury track record could impact his availability and overall production. With his low-risk contract, fantasy managers should consider Penny as a high-upside late-round selection, but it’s important to monitor his role/injury health status in the Eagles’ backfield throughout the offseason.
Deep Sleepers:
Kenneth Gainwell‘s usage increased towards the end of the 2022 season, and he out-targeted Miles Sanders 18-5 from Week 15 onward. Kenny G forced a time share with Sanders. The former starter played fewer than 40% of snaps in his last five games, after never playing fewer than 50% of snaps from Weeks 1-16. Gainwell/Sanders split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s last four games, with Gainwell seeing preferred usage on passing downs. With Sanders in Carolinas and the Eagles backfield almost completely overturned with additions of D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny… Gainwell has the chance to see an expanded role on the ground after the team showed immense trust in him during the postseason.
Gainwell has been super-efficient for two years in the NFL, finishing inside the top 8 in fantasy points per touch both seasons. The ONLY other RB to do so? Austin Ekeler.
The team has been extremely high on Gainwell this offseason, with him in the driver’s seat over newcomers to be the team’s featured back. He sat out the team’s first preseason game with many other of the Eagles starters.
RB Boston Scott, RB Trey Sermon
In 2022, Kenneth Gainwell‘s role on the Philadelphia Eagles was limited due to the team’s dominant performances, which resulted in him rarely being needed as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. However, his usage increased towards the end of the season, and he out-targeted Miles Sanders 18-5 from Week 15 onward. Sanders played fewer than 40% of snaps in his last five games, after never playing fewer than 50% of snaps from Weeks 1-16, and Gainwell/Sanders split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s last four games, with Gainwell seeing preferred usage on passing downs. With Sanders gone and the Eagles backfield almost completely overturned, Gainwell could see an expanded role on the ground, in addition to his confirmed receiving role on offense. The key question for Gainwell’s fantasy prospects will be the health of newcomers Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift. If they can stay healthy for a full season, Gainwell’s workload could be limited, but if they cannot, Gainwell will benefit. Currently, Gainwell is the cheapest ADP option in the Philadelphia Eagles backfield, despite his status as an incumbent.
Also worth noting that Penny’s deal is worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed – less than Boston Scott‘s $2 million with $1.08 guaranteed. Swift is the superior pass-catcher, but an argument can be made that Penny is as good if not better as a pure rusher.
Trey Sermon got positive lip service in early OTA and it has continued into training camp. Might be worth it to stash him in some deeper formats. His biggest issue in college and in the pros has been his inability to take over a backfield. So unless injuries absolutely decimate this backfield, I’m not sure Sermon sniffs the field. Keep in mind, Sermon got similar “hype” in the 49ers (the team that drafted him) camp last year.
If anything, I’d take the Eagles’ praise of Sermon – along with the other Eagles RBs – as a negative sign for D’Andre Swift. He’s viewed as the favorite to be “the guy” but he’s hardly asserted himself to earn RB1 duties on a new team.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
QB Kenny Pickett
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is already showing signs of growth in Year 2 after finishing his rookie season on a high note. From Weeks 12-18, Pickett was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback. He also added 235 rushing yards on the ground, putting him close to that desired 250-300 rushing yards threshold we should be aiming for our fantasy QBs to hit. Pittsburgh did an excellent job revamping their offensive line this season. So it shouldn’t be surprising to see Pickett take substantial strides in Year 2. He ended the 2023 preseason with a perfect passer rater.
Former undrafted 2022 free agent, Jaylen Warren shined with every opportunity he got in the Steelers backfield last season. After earning the No. 2 role behind Najee Harris, Warren finished third in rushing success rate (45.5%) and second in the 2022 RB class in yards per route run behind just Breece Hall. Warren’s efficient play suggests he will continue to see snaps alongside Najee Harris which has been on full display during the Steelers’ preseason contests. Harris has out-snapped Warren just 16-12 on 28 snaps from the first-team offense during the exhibition contests. Six carries each with Harris running more routes.
But further baked into his upside case is that should Harris miss any time, the 215-pound Warren would inherit bell-cow duties without any other Steelers RBs behind him yearning for touches.
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San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell had an up-and-down second season in 2022, mainly due to injuries. Mitchell got injured in Week 1 and couldn’t return to the field until Week 10 after the team traded for Christian McCaffrey. However, in his first game back, he showed flashes of his potential by rushing for 89 yards on 18 carries. Unfortunately, Mitchell got hurt again after seeing middling usage over the next two weeks. During the 3-week stint playing alongside McCaffrey, Mitchell earned 40% of the team’s RB touches to CMC’s 51%. However, it’s very much worth noting that 65% of Mitchell’s total touches came in the second halves of those games, with the 49ers protecting leads in two of the contests. Despite his injury downside, Mitchell’s efficient play last season solidified him as the primary handcuff to McCaffrey in 2023. He could see occasional spikes in production even while CMC is healthy, as he did at times in 2022. However, it’s unlikely he’ll have a consistent role as the No. 2 running back on the depth chart. Overall, Mitchell’s injury history is a downside factor, but his potential and role as the primary handcuff to McCaffrey make him a valuable late-round pick in fantasy drafts. Note that Mitchell has already suffered an abductor injury during training camp, so drafters need to temper their expectations on his “true” upside as a CMC handcuff.
Deep Sleepers:
RB Jordan Mason
It’s worth noting that Jordan Mason, the 49ers’ No. 3 running back in 2022, graded out as PFF’s second-highest graded rusher last season (92.9). He ranked first among rookies. Other rookies that held that honor in the past include…Rhamondre Stevenson, Johnathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara. Mason’s larger stature — 5’11 223 lbs — could help him hold up over an 18-week season, and he could potentially push Elijah Mitchell for the backup job. Mitchell has played just 16 games over the last two seasons, already picked up a small injury during OTAs and is currently out with an abductor injury
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Seattle Seahawks
QB Geno Smith: Smith is my favorite late-round quarterback because he’s being so vastly undervalued. The 32-year-old proved all his fantasy doubters wrong in his first year as Seattle’s fully-entrenched starter, finishing as the fantasy QB6 while averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8). The only QBs that scored more points per game than Smith last season were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson. Additionally, all the Seahawks did during the draft was invest in No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Anything but fantasy QB1 territory is still too cheap for Chef Geno in early best ball ADP. He should be viewed as a low-end fantasy QB1. Oh well, more for me (and you).
And the best part about Smith, is you can easily trust him in your starting lineup come Week 1. Seattle takes on a depleted Rams defense at home to open the year. Their next five matchups include the Lions, Panthers, Giants, Bengals and Cardinals. Wheels ARE up.
RB Zach Charbonnet: Zach Charbonnet started his college career at Michigan in 2019, where he started ahead of the future NFL draft selection, Hassan Haskins. But in 2020, Charbonnet’s numbers regressed in a six-game season for Michigan due to COVID-19. He split time with Haskins again, while also losing out to work to another NFL-drafted Chris Evans and up-and-coming running back star, Blake Corum. Charbonnet was part of a major running back by the committee as a Wolverine so he transferred to UCLA in 2021 and immediately saw his production skyrocket. He would post a 25% dominator rating as a junior, finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade. Charbonnet’s 2022 senior production was also elite, as he finished 4th in PFF rushing grade among all RBs topping his grade from the year before. But more importantly, for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot, 214-pound running back improved on his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs.
The Seattle Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (52nd overall) pairing him with last year’s second-round pick, Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet can’t deliver the home run rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. Charbonnet’s 3-down skill set combined with his draft capital suggests he will be used by the Seahawks plenty as a rookie, and he could end up being the better fantasy asset compared to Walker, who is currently dealing with a groin injury.
Keep in mind that head coach Pete Carroll is never afraid to shake things up when it comes to his backfield. The team drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. But former 7th-round draft pick Chris Carson was the team’s leading rusher in 2018, 2019 and 2020. One of Charbonnet’s closest comparisons based on his size and weight is Carson.
Unfortunately for Charbonnet, he picked up a shoulder injury during the preseason. Head coach Pete Carroll labeled him “out indefinitely.” Carroll is usually one of the most optimistic when it comes to his players’ availability so this was eye-catching. The fact that “indefinitely” was thrown around was a red flag. Last year, Seattle linebacker Darryl Johnson was labeled out indefinitely after Week 4. Was placed on IR and never returned. Because Charbonnet has already practiced he can’t be put on PUP, making IR his next logical spot if the injury is deemed severe. But it seems like this was a false alarm more than anything as Charbonnet returned to practice (August 3, 2023) just a few days later.
With Charbs back in action, Kenneth Walker remains a player to shy away from. It also depletes the fantasy value from fourth-year pro DeeJay Dallas and 2023 7th-rounder Kenny McIntosh, who should only be viewed as super deep sleepers.
For more on McIntosh/Dallas, read my Fantasy Football RB Handcuffs Report: Kenny McIntosh, DeeJay Dallas, Evan Hull, Jonathan Taylor (2023).
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White‘s rookie season saw him flash his legitimate 3-down back skill set in the Buccaneers’ offense. Despite working in a timeshare with Leonard Fournette, White was able to average 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) and operate as the 1A back in the second half of the season despite averaging just four yards per carry. While he wasn’t particularly efficient on the ground, White was still a better rusher than Fournette. And more importantly, he showed proficiency as a receiver with 50 receptions (11th among all RBs), which helped him solidify his role as the team’s RB1 for the upcoming 2023 season.
However, there is a downside to White’s projection for the upcoming season, given the potential struggles of the Tampa Bay offense without Tom Brady. But with White’s work as a receiver, he could still be valuable in games where the Buccaneers are chasing points. Additionally, the release of Fournette and the addition of cast-off Chase Edmonds and UDFA Sean Tucker gives White less competition for touches in the backfield. Overall, White’s versatility and solidified role as the RB1 make him a solid pick in fantasy drafts for the 2023 season, especially in PPR formats. While there may be some concern about the overall state of the Tampa Bay offense, White’s receiving skills and potential for an increased workload make him a player to target in fantasy drafts.
I also love White’s schedule to open the season. The Vikings and Bears are two very exploitable matchups that I think Tampa Bay can score on. They were the 27th and 32nd DVOA defenses respectively from 2022.
Deep Sleepers:
TE Cade Otton, QB Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield posted decent completion numbers with the Rams (64%), and I think the offense in Tampa will be similar to that based on new OC Dave Canales coming from the Sean McVay/Shane Waldron scheme. If Mayfield can complete closer to 64% of his passes — his average completion rate during his best seasons in 2020 and 2022 — he should be decent enough as a pocket passer throwing to arguably the best duo of WRs he has ever played with, between Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
Otton finished the 2022 season as the TE24, but his numbers were hit hard due to his timeshare with Cameron Brate. Brate was not retained by the Buccaneers, slating Otton up for a full-time role. In six games without Brate playing last season, Otton averaged 8.3 points per game. That average would have ranked 8th at the position last season. If Otton maintains a near-every-snap role in the Bucs’ offense (6th in total routes run among tight ends) he can be a solid fantasy contributor in Year 2.
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Tennessee Titans
Treylon Burks dealt with numerous injuries throughout his rookie campaign but showed flashes of WR1 ability from Week 10 onward. In his final six healthy games played, Burks led the Titans in targets and receiving yards. He earned 6-plus targets in all but two games and eclipsed 66-plus receiving yards in half the contests. In the 3 games started with Ryan Tannehill Weeks 10-12, Burks was very productive. Team-high 21% target share, 11.5 PPR points per game and 2.56 yards per route run. With the 2022 TEN leaders in overall targets and red-zone target between Robert Woods and Austin Hooper gone from the roster, Burks should see ample red-zone opportunities in his second year.
Now, Burks’ chances of hitting in his second-year drop substantially with the signing of DeAndre Hopkins, so adjust expectations with him now in the fantasy WR4 territory. However, I still like what I saw from Burks as a rookie, so I’d be buying the dip. Note I prefer him in half-PPR because the way that he will have to “win” will be based on efficiency, not volume.
Hopkins’ addition could signal a move inside for Burks, boosting his efficiency as a wizard after the catch (in a truly poor man’s A.J. Brown fashion).
Burks finished 13th in YAC/catch in 2022. 1st on his team in passer rating and yards per route run from the slot on TEN last season.
Deep Sleepers:
RB Tyjae Spears, WR Chris Moore
Tyjae Spears was a standout rusher at Tulane, and his draft stock skyrocketed after impressive showings at the Senior Bowl and the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. Standing at 5-foot-10 and weighing in at 201 pounds, Spears impressed with his explosiveness, ranking in the 92nd percentile for vertical jump (39″) and in the 89th percentile for broad jump (125″). Although he didn’t run the 40-yard dash, his performance in the explosion drills was enough to put him highly on the radar of NFL teams. In college, Spears posted impressive numbers, including a 31 percent dominator rating in 2022, finishing fifth in the FBS in rushing yards (1,586), second in rushing touchdowns (19), and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.55). His career average of 3.00 yards per play ranks seventh in his class, highlighting his potential to succeed at the NFL level. The Tennessee Titans selected Spears in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, making him a solid backup option for Derrick Henry. However, concerns about his knee injuries led to his draft stock falling. Spears was projected to go higher than the 83rd overall pick, but his health concerns scared teams away. For 2023, he offers excellent value as a handcuff to Henry, making him a valuable addition to fantasy football rosters. In the long-term, Spears’ prospects are uncertain due to his knee issues, which include a missing ACL and knee arthritis. However, with Henry hitting free agency in 2024, Spears could become the Titans’ RB1 as soon as next season.
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Washington Commanders
WR Jahan Dotson
Jahan Dotson finished 12th in the NFL last season in the percentage of games inside the top-12. As a rookie, he posted a 27% top-12 rate, with 3 WR1 finishes. He had more WR1 finishes than Terry McLaurin, who played in 5 more games than Dotson. Factor in Dotson’s strong finish after his injury from Weeks 13-18, and he’s a no-brainer sleeper breakout candidate. Over that span, he led the Commanders with a 24% target share averaging 2.2 yards per route run.
Antonio Gibson had a polarizing 2022 season, splitting work in the Commanders’ backfield with rookie Brian Robinson. However, Gibson’s proven track record of production, ideal size, and pass-catching chops make him an enticing buy-low running back target. Despite operating as an RB3 for much of the second half of 2022, Gibson remained much more involved in the passing game than Robinson, with an impressive 14% target share and an 80.5 PFF receiving grade. The release of J.D. McKissic further solidifies Gibson’s role as the primary receiving back for Washington. As a free agent at the end of 2023, the team could ride Gibson till the wheels fall off. Additionally, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s arrival may lead to more opportunities for Gibson, as he has no prior commitments to the hierarchy of the backfield from the 2022 season. We could easily see him in a Jerick McKinnon-esque role in Washington. The Commanders’ tough schedule also foreshadows negative scripts, which favor Gibson’s pass-catching abilities. Grab him as early as Round 8.
Deep Sleepers:
TE Logan Thomas, QB Sam Howell, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr.
The Commanders tight end has been completely written for fantasy football, despite his clear-cut TE1 status on Washington’s roster. He is another year removed from an ACL injury and there’s no TE being drafted as late as him with his track record of production. He finished 4th at the position in 2020, and was 10th in points per game in 2021. In 2022, Thomas was slow coming back from his injury, finishing the year as the TE35. But with LT entering the season fully healthy, I expect him to blow his TE35 ADP out of the water. Simply put, he’s being drafted at his stone-cold floor. Per ESPN’s Commanders writer John Keim, Thomas has been developing solid rapport with projected quarterback starter, Sam Howell.
A final name that should not be overlooked late in drafts is Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell. Apparently, Washington feels content entering the year with Howell as the team’s starter after he impressed in his Week 18 debut. The former UNC product scored 19.2 fantasy points versus the Dallas Cowboys while flashing his potential as a rusher (5-35-1). The Commanders are not short on offensive weapons, making Howell an ideal dual-threat quarterback to stack super late in early best-ball drafts.
Here’s what I wrote about Howell during the 2022 NFL Draft process for additional context: Howell earned the starting quarterback job at North Carolina as a 19-year old true freshman and never looked back. He finished fourth in the FBS with 38 touchdown passes in his first season, cementing himself on the NFL radar. He followed up an impressive introduction with an even more dominant performance as a passer in 2020, finishing as the nation’s sixth-highest-graded quarterback (92.3) and fourth-best deep passer (98.0) in an offense littered with future NFL talent. Unsurprisingly, Howell took a bit of a step back in his final season without the likes of Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, Dyami Brown, and Dazz Newsome at his disposal. The UNC product was PFF’s 37th-graded passer (80.3) – 15th among his 2022 draft class. Howell turned up the dial on his rushing production to compensate for the lack of passing efficiency. After posting just 600 yards on the ground through two seasons, Howell rushed for 1,106 yards as PFF’s second-highest-graded rusher (91.0) in 2021. Howell was looking to create yards with his legs if the first read wasn’t there. This presents problems for the real-life NFL but shouldn’t be considered negatively for fantasy. Howell’s escapability lends itself to rushing success at the NFL level if he doesn’t have a lot of talent around him. Conversely, his first two years of college show he will take full advantage when he does have weapons around him. It’s hard to label Howell as a “situation-proof” quarterback – a young quarterback’s team context plays an integral part in their growth – but it’s hard to overlook his versatility as far as how he can rack up fantasy points in the years to come based on which team selects him.
Part of my reason for fading Brian Robinson Jr. in redraft this season is because the Commanders drafted a player with a very similar skill set to his in the sixth round of this year’s draft: Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez Jr. C-Rod spent the last five years with the Wildcats totaling a solid 23% career dominator rating but what’s most impressive about Rodriguez’s college tenure was the 2020 season; one which saw him post a 33% dominator rating after he took over the starting RB1 role. Rodriguez rushed for 785 yards and 11 TDs in nine games, finishing as PFF’s second-highest graded running back in the FBS sandwiched between Javonte Williams and Tyler Allgeier. And his success continued from there, with 1,300 rushing yards in 2021. Entering 2022, Rodriguez Jr. was forced to miss time to start the year but his return was immediately felt as he finished the year as PFF’s eighth-highest-graded RB averaging 113 rushing yards per game and a 37% broken tackle rate. C-Rod earned a 36% final season dominator rating when you remove the production from his teammates during the four games he missed to open the 2022 season.
The Day 3 pick has gotten high praise from the Commanders coaching staff this offseason, with reports leaking that Washington had a Round 3 grade on him. Under a new offensive coordinator, the offense could favor Rodriguez over Robinson as the team’s power back.
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