After piling up the prep hours for your draft in a Redraft League, there is always the anxiety about which draft pick you will have in your draft. There are vastly different strategies for each portion of the draft. Fantasy managers should have different strategies, whether they have the first overall pick or pick No. 12.
Here I was tasked with the 1.06 pick in a 12-team, 1QB, PPR league, where I conducted this mock draft using the Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator. Being stuck in the middle is not necessarily a terrible thing. Fantasy managers can wait for the draft to come to them. They can zig instead of zag on position runs with the realization that you will be faced with the same number of picks between your picks throughout the draft. Follow my journey and tell me how my team looks through 15 rounds.
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Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, 1QB, PPR from the 1.06 (2023 Fantasy Football)
Pick 1.06 – Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
My last mock offering saw the Zero RB draft approach play out. The board fell to me in this mock draft, with CMC, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler and Justin Jefferson being picked before my selection. This left me with an apparent pick of rookie sensation Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson was the best player in college football the last two seasons, producing 2,707 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns.
He averaged six yards per attempt and provided a pass-catching option out of the backfield, posting 45 catches for 609 yards and six scores. The Falcons already possessed a solid rushing attack, and Robinson’s versatility will catapult the former Alabama running back into a game-changer RB1 for fantasy managers.
Alternative Selection: Ja’Marr Chase and Tony Pollard.
Pick 2.07 – Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
Pleasantly surprised to have Nick Chubb fall on my lap here. Chubb finished as the RB6 in fantasy points scored by a running back on the heels of a career-high 1,525 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. The former Georgia Bulldog is recognized as the best running back in the league, with the ability to run through tackles with power and another gear to lead the league in breakaway runs. From a fantasy standpoint, the only knock on Chubb is his lack of involvement in the passing game.
However, Kareem Hunt has not resigned, and it seems the Browns are content going with the unproven Jerome Ford in the pass-catching role. Look for Chubb to be incorporated more in the passing game. Combine that factor with his production of +1500 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns, and we have a top-five running back in what should be an improved Cleveland Browns offense.
Alternative Selection: Another running back like Najee Harris or Aaron Jones. Also, the pick could have been a top-level wide receiver in Stefon Diggs.
Pick 3.06 – Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Despite catching passes with the No. 32 QB play in the league last season, the former Buckeye wide receiver made quite an impact in his rookie season. Garrett Wilson hauled 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns while landing as the WR21 in fantasy points. The upgrade at quarterback to Aaron Rodgers, the offensive line, and the wide receiver room should continue to be a difference-maker and take a giant leap among wide receivers.
His numbers will climb but to what degree? The Jets took Rodgers’ advice and added good friends Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, who will take away targets from Wilson. His value continues to skyrocket, with fantasy managers drafting Wilson ahead of Stefon Diggs and AJ Brown. If Wilson happens to fall to you in the WR10-WR12 range, then he is an obvious selection.
Alternative Selection: Other wide receivers such as Keenan Allen, DeVonta Smith, and RB JK Dobbins.
Pick 4.07 – DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
DK Metcalf produced a career-high 90 receptions but scored fewer than ten touchdowns for the first time since his rookie season. At just 25 years old, Metcalf has performed at an elite level across his four seasons in the league. Metcalf has performed at this level opposite ultra-productive Tyler Lockett. With the Seahawks adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 2023 NFL Draft, there will be a fight for targets from the rejuvenated Geno Smith. His targets make me take a slide, but the positive TD regression from his just six touchdowns last season makes him a thrilling pick here as my WR3.
Alternative Selection: WR Chris Godwin or Amari Cooper. RB Cam Akers or Miles Sanders.
Pick 5.06 – DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
DJ Moore has been an excellent wide receiver across the past four seasons. He was WR24 last season, playing with a group of below-average quarterbacks in Carolina that has plagued Moore throughout his career. Of course, there is a necessary transition into a new system and developing chemistry with quarterback Justin Fields, who is still making strides as a passer.
The accumulation of offensive weapons should bolster Fields and the Bears’ offense out of their bottom-five offense from last season. Moore should see an increase in target share and reach a low-end fantasy WR1/high-end WR2. Having Moore as the FLEX in the weekly lineup is a massive win with plenty of upside.
Alternative Selection: High-end WR like Terry McLaurin and Jerry Jeudy or going RB with Alexander Mattison or Dameon Pierce.
Pick 6.07 – Christian Watson (WR – GB)
Christian Watson is a difference-maker and splash-play wide receiver that excelled with Aaron Rodgers behind center. The question is how Watson will perform with Jordan Love taking over as quarterback for the Packers. Watson led the league with 2.52 fantasy points per target and 12th with a 13.8 average depth of target (aDOT). Love shows he can support the Packers’ weapons in his small sample size.
The degree to which Love can raise his level will determine if this pick as league winner steal selection or playing matchups weekly in my second FLEX spot.
Alternative Selection: Wide Receivers Dionate Johnson or JuJu Smith-Schuster or dive into one of the top QB.
Pick 7.06 – Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
Jahan Dotson displayed flashes of fantasy potential as a rookie last season. Dotson scored seven touchdowns and finished sixth with 2.14 Fantasy Points per Target. There are concerns about the Washington Commanders’ quarterback situation. With veteran Jacoby Brissett and the unproven Sam Howell fighting to take over as the QB1 in Washington.
Neither QB exudes excitement, but this offense has so many weapons in this offense, with Dotson opening the season as the WR2. Dotson will be a valuable FLEX option that can pop.
Alternative Selection: Another WR in Jordan Addison or RB David Montgomery to back up my FLEX spot, but Dotson screams potential.
Pick 8.07 – James Cook (RB – BUF)
James Cook displayed his explosive talent as a rookie last season, averaging 5.7 rushing yards per attempt. Cook will continue to ascend into more playing time as the pass-catching option out of the Bills’ backfield. Cook will not see the goal-line work with that going to Damien Harris, but he is still a FLEX option in all PPR formats.
Alternative Selection: Take a QB in Joe Burrow or Justin Fields.
Pick 9.06 – Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
I’m happy to pass on those quarterbacks on my last pick, grab James Cook, and still get Trevor Lawerence as my QB1. Lawerence shined in his second NFL season and first with Head Coach Doug Pederson. The Jaguars went out last offseason and upgraded the weapons surrounding Lawrence by adding wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, along with tight Evan Engram.
The offense came together quickly, ranking in the top ten in scoring last season. Not satisfied with the offense, the Jaguars made a trade to acquire the suspended wide receiver, Calvin Ridley. Ridley is super-talented, but there must be questions about how he gets incorporated into the Jags’ offense. However, at this juncture of the draft, Ridley was well worth the gamble for one of my bench spots.
Alternative Selection: QB Daniel Jones, WR Jameson Williams, or Odell Beckham, Jr.
Pick 10.07 – Evan Engram (TE – JAC)
Evan Engram resurrected his career in Jacksonville last season. He produced 73 receptions on 98 targets for 766 yards and four scores. Engram was an invaluable addition and was the security blanket that Trevor Lawrence needed to continue his ascension to the next level at quarterback. Engram accumulated the second-most 460 yards after catch among TE. Pairing Engram with Lawrence was a no-brainer move here.
Alternative Selection: Backup RB Damien Harris, Jerick McKinnon, or Brian Robinson.
Pick 11.06 – Devon Achane (RB – MIA)
Fantasy managers love to draft the following favorite toy late in their drafts to brag when that player pops. Devon Achane is the buzzy player now in Miami with his impressive play in optional team activities (OTAs). However, the helium took a massive hit with the rumors of Dalvin Cook signing in Miami after his release by the Minnesota Vikings.
Achane has big-play ability and will have splash plays, but it’s difficult to determine when those hit. Although here in Round 11, it makes sense to take a dart throw here and not overreact when he provides the big play. A bye-week fill-in who could be a valuable trade chip.
Alternative Selection: WR Skyy Moore or Rashid Shaheed. RB Elijah Mitchell or Kendre Miller.
Pick 12. 07 – Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN)
Chig is another trendy pick fantasy analysts expect to blossom in 2023. He is on a team with zero proven wideouts, forcing the Titans to rely on the TE in the passing game. Chig finished second with a 33.3% target rate and led all TE with 14.1 yards per reception. He will be on plenty of lists of breakout players to draft, which is well-deserved.
Alternative Selection: Backup QB Deshaun Watson, RB Jaylen Warren, WR Isaiah Hodgins.
Pick 13.06 – Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
Ideally, fantasy managers jump on the upside for your bench players. Only a few players have as much upside as rookie Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. His athleticism and running ability creates an untapped potential for Richardson to be an elite QB option for the next decade.
Alternative Selection: Backup QB Tua or Kirk Cousins.
Pick 14.07 – Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
Rookie Roschon Johnson will likely not have a considerable role at the season’s onset. However, we should see Johnson take over the Chicago Bears backfield toward the end of the season, with pass-catching ability being the main reason. His upside to emerge as a third-down back outweighs his draft capital here.
Alternative Selection: RB Tank Bisby. WR Robert Woods or Jalin Hyatt.
Pick 15.06 – Tyquan Thornton (WR – NE)
Thorton will compete for targets with newly signed JuJu Smith-Schuster but possesses the upside to make a fantasy impact. Thorton showed chemistry with quarterback Mac Jones, which bodes well for his future fantasy production.
Alternative Selection: WR Jonathan Mingo or Mecole Hardman.
My Roster after 15 Rounds
- Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson
- Running Back: Bijan Robinson, Nick Chubb, James Cook, Devon Achane, Roschon Johnson
- Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson, Tyquan Thornton
- Tight End: Evan Engram, Chigoziem Okonkwo
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Dennis Sosic is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dennis, check out his archive and follow him @CALL_ME_SOS.